2021 03 30 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Unics vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 31 March 2021
Monaco vs Buducnost at 31 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Unics vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 31 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unics and Lokomotiv Kuban for EuroCup, which will take place on 31 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unics

1.6

2.54

Lokomotiv Kuban

2.42

1.65

Unics HC

-3.5

3.50

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

+3.5

-3.50

Point Line

161.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 25

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

74

86

12

6

L 1

75

78

Mar 22

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

94

88

12

5

W 1

96

80

Mar 10

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

90

96

11

5

L 1

90

96

Mar 3

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

85

63

11

4

W 5

91

68

Feb 3

H

Mornar

W

86

61

10

4

W 4

84

63

Jan 27

A

Mornar

W

87

70

9

4

W 3

85

72

Jan 20

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

73

62

8

4

W 2

73

62

Jan 13

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

73

66

7

4

W 1

78

71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 25

H

UNICS

W

86

74

12

6

W 1

90

71

Mar 22

A

UNICS

L

88

94

11

6

L 1

92

90

Mar 10

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

100

86

11

5

W 2

108

91

Mar 3

A

Metropolitans 92

W

83

61

10

5

W 1

83

61

Feb 3

A

Partizan NIS

L

69

71

9

5

L 1

75

76

Jan 27

H

Partizan NIS

W

74

67

9

4

W 1

80

71

Jan 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

84

96

8

4

L 2

91

101

Jan 12

H

Metropolitans 92

L

79

83

8

3

L 1

79

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unics (in the first graph) and by Lokomotiv Kuban in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unics will expected to score 83 points and the Lokomotiv Kuban 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unics

Lokomotiv Kuban

FG%

0.54

0.55

ASS

17.10

18.90

DRB

21.90

24.70

AST-TO

1.46

1.41

TRB

32.30

34.60

FTM

12.40

15.90

BL

1.80

3.20

FTA

15.30

22.20

PF-Fewer

21.70

19.60

ST

7.40

6.80

TO-Fewer

11.70

13.40

Ftper

0.81

0.72

ORBper

0.47

0.40

ORB

10.40

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Monaco vs Buducnost at 31 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Buducnost for EuroCup, which will take place on 31 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Monaco

1.29

1.74

Buducnost

3.75

2.36

Monaco HC

-7.5

-3.00

Buducnost HC

+7.5

3.00

Point Line

153.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 26

A

Buducnost VOLI

W

74

64

12

6

W 1

76

64

Mar 23

H

Buducnost VOLI

L

76

77

11

6

L 1

78

77

Mar 9

A

Unicaja

W

98

89

11

5

W 3

95

83

Mar 2

H

Nanterre 92

W

98

94

10

5

W 2

92

90

Feb 2

H

Joventut

W

97

82

9

5

W 1

96

77

Jan 26

A

Joventut

L

72

79

8

5

L 1

72

74

Jan 19

H

Unicaja

W

90

71

8

4

W 4

87

66

Jan 13

A

Nanterre 92

W

93

65

7

4

W 3

88

62

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 26

H

Monaco

L

64

74

9

9

L 1

69

72

Mar 23

A

Monaco

W

77

76

9

8

W 3

83

74

Mar 9

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

79

66

8

8

W 2

83

64

Mar 3

A

JL Bourg

W

92

89

7

8

W 1

92

89

Feb 3

H

Virtus Bologna

L

89

99

6

8

L 3

95

89

Jan 26

A

Virtus Bologna

L

65

87

6

7

L 2

69

78

Jan 19

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

71

74

6

6

L 1

74

72

Jan 12

H

JL Bourg

W

108

80

6

5

W 1

108

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Monaco (in the first graph) and by Buducnost in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Monaco will expected to score 80 points and the Buducnost 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Monaco

Buducnost

FG%

0.53

0.51

ASS

15.30

13.80

DRB

20.60

22.90

AST-TO

1.42

1.07

TRB

32.00

31.40

FTM

15.00

17.90

BL

2.60

2.70

FTA

20.90

22.90

PF-Fewer

20.80

19.60

ST

6.90

6.80

TO-Fewer

10.80

12.90

Ftper

0.72

0.78

ORBper

0.55

0.37

ORB

11.40

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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One comment

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