2021 03 30 BCL – MATH to WIN

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Tofas vs Karsiyaka at 30 March 2021
Igokea vs San Pablo Burgos at 30 March 2021
Brose Bamberg vs Nymburk at 30 March 2021
Zaragoza vs Dinamo Sassari at 30 March 2021
Hapoel Holon vs Brindisi at 31 March 2021
Turk Telekom vs AEK Athens at 31 March 2021
VEF Riga vs Tenerife at 31 March 2021
Nizhny Novgorod vs Strasbourg at 31 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Tofas vs Karsiyaka at 30 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tofas and Karsiyaka for BCL, which will take place on 30 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Tofas	2.85	2.04
Karsiyaka	1.45	1.96
Tofas HC	+5.5	1.50
Karsiyaka HC	-5.5	-1.50
Point Line	159.5	157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 24	H	Enel Brindisi	L	72	91	4	6		71	84
Mar 16	A	Enel Brindisi	L	75	77	4	5		74	71
Mar 9	H	Hapoel Unet Holon	L	81	93	4	4		85	93
Mar 3	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	70	78	4	3		76	80
Jan 19	A	CEZ Nymburk	W	103	97	4	2		102	83
Jan 12	A	JDA Dijon Basket	W	90	61	3	2		96	64
Jan 6	H	Keravnos Strovolou	W	78	67	2	2		71	78
Nov 18	H	JDA Dijon Basket	L	81	87	1	2		87	91

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 23	H	Hapoel Unet Holon	L	76	77	6	4		80	77
Mar 17	A	Hapoel Unet Holon	W	72	63	6	3		75	63
Mar 9	A	Enel Brindisi	L	79	83	5	3		78	77
Mar 3	H	Tofas SC	W	78	70	5	2		77	67
Jan 27	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	85	76	4	2		91	81
Jan 12	A	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	78	65	3	2		77	78
Jan 5	H	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	80	69	2	2		79	83
Dec 23	H	Brose Baskets Bamberg	L	70	76	1	2		75	70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tofas (in the first graph) and by Karsiyaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tofas will expected to score 79 points and the Karsiyaka 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Tofas	Karsiyaka
FG%	0.51	0.52
ASS	20.30	17.40
DRB	23.70	22.60
AST-TO	1.61	1.71
TRB	33.70	30.80
FTM	13.80	15.20
BL	2.70	2.00
FTA	18.70	20.30
PF-Fewer	20.30	19.80
ST	8.30	5.20
TO-Fewer	12.60	10.20
Ftper	0.74	0.75
ORBper	0.42	0.36
ORB	10.00	8.20

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Igokea vs San Pablo Burgos at 30 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Igokea and San Pablo Burgos for BCL, which will take place on 30 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Igokea	3.45	3.73
San Pablo Burgos	1.34	1.37
Igokea HC	+7.5	6.50
San Pablo Burgos HC	-7.5	-6.50
Point Line	157.5	157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Igokea are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 23	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	75	80	4	5		75	73
Mar 9	A	BC VEF Riga	W	91	75	4	4		95	80
Mar 3	H	Iberostar Tenerife	L	62	82	3	4		62	74
Jan 26	A	Turk Telekom	L	86	94	3	3		86	95
Jan 12	H	CSP Limoges	W	76	73	3	2		79	76
Dec 24	A	Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem	L	68	84	2	2		68	82
Dec 22	H	Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem	W	75	73	2	1		75	71
Nov 11	H	Turk Telekom	W	77	66	1	1		77	67

The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 24	A	BC VEF Riga	W	67	45	8	1		70	48
Mar 9	H	Iberostar Tenerife	W	101	79	7	1		101	72
Mar 2	H	BC VEF Riga	W	76	75	6	1		80	80
Jan 27	A	Enel Brindisi	W	90	86	5	1		88	80
Jan 12	H	Telenet BC Oostende	W	88	73	4	1		82	72
Dec 22	A	Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul	W	74	71	3	1		71	75
Dec 9	H	Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul	W	100	70	2	1		96	74
Nov 18	H	Enel Brindisi	W	93	71	1	1		91	66

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Igokea and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Igokea.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Igokea (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Igokea will expected to score 76 points and the San Pablo Burgos 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Var	Igokea	San Pablo Burgos
FG%	0.52	0.58
ASS	16.90	22.60
DRB	22.30	23.40
AST-TO	1.18	1.77
TRB	31.00	32.20
FTM	15.30	12.80
BL	1.10	2.70
FTA	20.20	17.60
PF-Fewer	21.10	20.70
ST	6.80	9.90
TO-Fewer	14.30	12.80
Ftper	0.76	0.73
ORBper	0.39	0.38
ORB	8.70	8.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Brose Bamberg vs Nymburk at 30 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brose Bamberg and Nymburk for BCL, which will take place on 30 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Brose Bamberg	1.44	3.25
Nymburk	2.87	1.44
Brose Bamberg HC	-5.5	5.50
Nymburk HC	+5.5	-5.50
Point Line	168.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brose Bamberg are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 23	H	Casademont Zaragoza	W	117	76	7	2		110	70
Mar 10	A	Casademont Zaragoza	L	65	77	6	2		61	71
Mar 2	H	CEZ Nymburk	L	87	91	6	1		86	78
Jan 27	H	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	83	68	6	0		82	82
Jan 12	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	90	75	5	0		96	80
Dec 23	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	W	76	70	4	0		83	71
Dec 8	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	W	83	82	3	0		90	84
Nov 10	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	77	71	2	0		82	76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nymburk are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 9	H	Banco di Sardegna Sassari	W	90	89	6	2		80	81
Mar 2	A	Brose Baskets Bamberg	W	91	87	5	2		98	80
Jan 19	H	Tofas SC	L	97	103	4	2		95	99
Jan 6	H	JDA Dijon Basket	W	94	54	4	1		101	56
Dec 15	A	Keravnos Strovolou	W	102	69	3	1		92	80
Nov 18	H	Keravnos Strovolou	W	96	69	2	1		87	80
Nov 10	A	Tofas SC	W	96	93	1	1		94	90
Nov 3	A	JDA Dijon Basket	L	61	85	0	1		65	89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brose Bamberg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nymburk.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nymburk and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brose Bamberg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brose Bamberg (in the first graph) and by Nymburk in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brose Bamberg will expected to score 84 points and the Nymburk 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Var	Brose Bamberg	Nymburk
FG%	0.59	0.54
ASS	21.00	20.60
DRB	25.10	27.90
AST-TO	1.50	1.66
TRB	32.70	39.20
FTM	12.30	16.40
BL	3.60	2.80
FTA	16.00	23.40
PF-Fewer	17.70	17.00
ST	6.30	6.90
TO-Fewer	14.00	12.40
Ftper	0.77	0.70
ORBper	0.30	0.41
ORB	7.60	11.40

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Zaragoza vs Dinamo Sassari at 30 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Dinamo Sassari for BCL, which will take place on 30 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Zaragoza	1.5	1.90
Dinamo Sassari	2.7	2.11
Zaragoza HC	-4.5	-1.50
Dinamo Sassari HC	+4.5	1.50
Point Line	176.5	170.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 23	A	Brose Baskets Bamberg	L	76	117	7	2		82	107
Mar 10	H	Brose Baskets Bamberg	W	77	65	7	1		82	60
Mar 2	A	Banco di Sardegna Sassari	W	95	83	6	1		85	75
Jan 19	H	Wikana Start S.A. Lublin	W	94	82	5	1		89	90
Jan 5	A	Nizhny Novgorod	W	98	92	4	1		106	87
Dec 22	A	Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely	L	86	94	3	1		88	91
Dec 16	H	Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely	W	85	76	3	0		87	74
Nov 11	H	Nizhny Novgorod	W	78	75	2	0		84	71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dinamo Sassari are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 9	A	CEZ Nymburk	L	89	90	4	4		88	77
Mar 2	H	Casademont Zaragoza	L	83	95	4	3		78	87
Jan 20	A	Galatasaray	W	92	81	4	2		79	78
Jan 6	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	85	115	3	2		85	104
Dec 16	H	Bakken Bears	L	71	93	3	1		68	84
Nov 18	A	Bakken Bears	W	91	84	3	0		87	76
Nov 4	H	Iberostar Tenerife	W	92	72	2	0		92	65
Oct 21	H	Galatasaray	W	93	84	1	0		80	81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dinamo Sassari.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dinamo Sassari and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zaragoza (in the first graph) and by Dinamo Sassari in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zaragoza will expected to score 85 points and the Dinamo Sassari 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Var	Zaragoza	Dinamo Sassari
FG%	0.55	0.54
ASS	20.80	20.10
DRB	22.70	23.00
AST-TO	1.61	1.49
TRB	29.40	33.90
FTM	13.30	14.60
BL	4.10	1.90
FTA	18.90	19.40
PF-Fewer	18.30	20.00
ST	7.30	6.10
TO-Fewer	12.90	13.50
Ftper	0.71	0.76
ORBper	0.30	0.47
ORB	6.80	10.90

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Hapoel Holon vs Brindisi at 31 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hapoel Holon and Brindisi for BCL, which will take place on 31 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Hapoel Holon	1.65	2.89
Brindisi	2.3	1.53
Hapoel Holon HC	-2.5	5.00
Brindisi HC	+2.5	-5.00
Point Line	163.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Holon are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 23	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	W	77	76	7	3		84	78
Mar 17	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	63	72	6	3		69	73
Mar 9	A	Tofas SC	W	93	81	6	2		91	78
Mar 2	H	Enel Brindisi	W	87	85	5	2