2021 03 30 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Solihull vs Wealdstone at 30 March 2021
Notts County vs Aldershot at 30 March 2021


Solihull vs Wealdstone at 30 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Solihull and Wealdstone for Conference (England), which will take place on 30 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Solihull

1.69

1.65

1.4

Draw

3.89

4.42

-3.1

Wealdstone

4.28

5.92

-6.5

Over 2.5

1.64

1.98

-10.5

Under 2.5

2.26

2.02

5.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Solihull, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Solihull in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance at home.
Solihull, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Torquay

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Bromley

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Halifax

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Stockport

H

0

5

L

O

N

06 Mar

Maidenhead

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

2

2

D

O

G


Wealdstone in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance as a guest.
Wealdstone, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Woking

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Weymouth

A

0

4

L

O

N

13 Mar

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Wrexham

A

1

4

L

O

G

23 Feb

Eastleigh

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Solihull is -1 and for the Wealdstone is -0.856.
The home dynamic for the Solihull is -0.077 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wealdstone is -1.
The offensive ability for the Solihull is -1 and for the Wealdstone is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Solihull is -0.411 and for the Wealdstone is -0.668.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Solihull and the red line for guest team, Wealdstone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Solihull

20%

23%

28%

30%

Wealdstone

44%

37%

14%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.92 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.89 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.67 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.8 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.82

1

5.75

2-3

1.97

2

4.29

4+

4.35

3

3.64

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.82

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

2.98

3.54

2-3 goals

1.43

6.05

7.36

4+ goals

1.53

4.34

8.52

Ov 1.5

1.46

5.39

7.69

Un 1.5

2.62

2.98

3.54

Ov 2.5

1.32

9.53

7.32

Un 2.5

2.23

2.88

4.90

Ov 3.5

1.53

4.34

8.52

Un 3.5

1.69

4.48

5.38

Goal-Goal

1.77

3.26

7.71

No Goal

1.57

6.28

4.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.44

6.85

6.26

NG+Un 2.5

1.85

6.28

4.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Notts County vs Aldershot at 30 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Notts County and Aldershot for Conference (England), which will take place on 30 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Notts County

1.64

2.08

-12.9

Draw

3.63

3.92

-2.0

Aldershot

5.15

3.79

7.0

Over 2.5

1.90

1.97

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.87

2.03

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aldershot (7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Notts County in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance at home.
Notts County, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Yeovil

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Yeovil

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Boreham Wood

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Stockport

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N


Aldershot in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance as a guest.
Aldershot, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Solihull

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Boreham Wood

H

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Halifax

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Altrincham

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Maidenhead

A

4

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

Wrexham

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Feb

Solihull

H

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Notts County is 0.353 and for the Aldershot is -0.635.
The home dynamic for the Notts County is -0.063 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aldershot is -0.39.
The offensive ability for the Notts County is 1 and for the Aldershot is -0.96.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Notts County is 0.033 and for the Aldershot is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Notts County and the red line for guest team, Aldershot.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Notts County

23%

29%

26%

23%

Aldershot

34%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.75 goals and Aldershot to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.48 goals and Aldershot to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.92

1

5.59

2-3

2.06

2

4.26

4+

3.88

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.92

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.36

3.07

2-3 goals

1.90

4.66

3.85

4+ goals

1.98

3.44

4.87

Ov 1.5

1.93

4.15

4.15

Un 1.5

2.66

3.36

3.07

Ov 2.5

1.69

6.77

3.82

Un 2.5

2.71

2.72

3.80

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.44

4.87

Un 3.5

2.11

4.11

3.54

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.87

4.62

No Goal

1.88

6.38

3.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

5.45

3.68

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

6.38

2.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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