Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Gillingham vs Wigan at 31 March 2021
Gillingham vs Wigan at 31 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Gillingham and Wigan for League One (England), which will take place on 31 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Gillingham |
2.08 |
2.31 |
-4.8 |
|
Draw |
3.33 |
3.70 |
-3.0 |
|
Wigan |
3.55 |
3.37 |
1.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.09 |
-0.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.92 |
-5.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Wigan (1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Gillingham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance at home.
Gillingham, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 47.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Mar |
Hull |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
13 Mar |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Wigan in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance as a guest.
Wigan, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 36.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Mar |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The form score for the Gillingham is 0.594 and for the Wigan is -0.271.
The home dynamic for the Gillingham is -0.301 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wigan is -0.424.
The offensive ability for the Gillingham is 0.556 and for the Wigan is -0.2.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Gillingham is -0.478 and for the Wigan is 0.229.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gillingham and the red line for guest team, Wigan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Gillingham |
23% |
34% |
25% |
17% |
|
Wigan |
32% |
36% |
22% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.4 goals and Wigan to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Gillingham to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.36 goals and Wigan to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.72 |
|
1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.27 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.47 |
3.59 |
3.16 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.22 |
4.04 |
3.31 |
|
4+ goals |
2.34 |
3.25 |
3.77 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.26 |
3.75 |
3.45 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.59 |
3.16 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.64 |
2.97 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
2.64 |
3.84 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.25 |
3.77 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.87 |
3.26 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.67 |
3.83 |
|
No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.53 |
2.93 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.39 |
2.93 |
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