2021 03 30 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Carlisle vs Crawley Town at 30 March 2021


Carlisle vs Crawley Town at 30 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Crawley Town for League Two (England), which will take place on 30 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Carlisle

1.70

2.16

-12.5

Draw

3.85

3.73

0.8

Crawley Town

4.74

3.70

5.9

Over 2.5

1.95

2.09

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.86

1.92

-1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Crawley Town (0.8 %, 5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Carlisle in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Cambridge

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Stevenage

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Bradford

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Grimsby

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Mar

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G


Crawley Town in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance as a guest.
Crawley Town, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Barrow

A

2

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Salford

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Exeter

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Carlisle is -0.88 and for the Crawley Town is -0.16.
The home dynamic for the Carlisle is -0.259 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crawley Town is -0.407.
The offensive ability for the Carlisle is 0.444 and for the Crawley Town is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Carlisle is -1 and for the Crawley Town is 0.076.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Crawley Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Carlisle

21%

35%

24%

19%

Crawley Town

34%

37%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.69 goals and Crawley Town to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.89 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.41 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.73

1

5.10

2-3

2.00

2

3.92

4+

4.31

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.73

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.27

3.72

3.44

2-3 goals

2.13

3.88

3.66

4+ goals

2.13

3.36

4.30

Ov 1.5

2.13

3.70

3.84

Un 1.5

2.27

3.72

3.44

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.93

3.25

Un 2.5

2.62

2.60

4.29

Ov 3.5

2.13

3.36

4.30

Un 3.5

2.18

3.83

3.58

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.64

4.12

No Goal

1.81

6.64

3.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.71

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

6.64

3.23


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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