2021 03 30 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Moreirense vs Sp Lisbon at 30 March 2021


Moreirense vs Sp Lisbon at 30 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Moreirense and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 30 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Moreirense

7.42

6.33

2.3

Draw

3.90

4.24

-2.1

Sp Lisbon

1.48

1.65

-7.0

Over 2.5

2.00

2.16

-3.7

Under 2.5

1.81

1.86

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Moreirense (2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Moreirense in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance at home.
Moreirense, at home, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Maritimo

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Belenenses

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Feb

Boavista

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Benfica

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Feb

Farense

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Feb

Famalicao

A

2

0

W

U

N


Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Lisbon, as a guest, had 10 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 32 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Guimaraes

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Tondela

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Porto

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Portimonense

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Moreirense is -0.398 and for the Sp Lisbon is 1.
The home dynamic for the Moreirense is -0.371 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Lisbon is 1.
The offensive ability for the Moreirense is -0.033 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.427.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Moreirense is -0.478 and for the Sp Lisbon is 1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Moreirense and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Moreirense

45%

38%

14%

3%

Sp Lisbon

19%

28%

27%

26%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Moreirense to score 0.6 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.24 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Moreirense to score 0.74 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.61 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.53

1

5.05

2-3

1.93

2

3.94

4+

5.08

3

3.77

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.53

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.26

Ov 3.5

5.08

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.99

3.33

2.23

2-3 goals

7.31

4.90

1.52

4+ goals

13.13

4.38

1.44

Ov 1.5

8.33

4.74

1.49

Un 1.5

3.99

3.33

2.23

Ov 2.5

7.83

10.27

1.29

Un 2.5

5.48

2.81

2.17

Ov 3.5

13.13

4.38

1.44

Un 3.5

5.65

4.20

1.71

Goal-Goal

8.20

2.93

1.86

No Goal

5.40

6.54

1.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

6.24

7.49

1.42

NG+Un 2.5

4.40

6.54

1.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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