2021 03 30 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Espanol vs Fuenlabrada at 01 April 2021
Las Palmas vs Lugo at 01 April 2021
Mallorca vs Leganes at 01 April 2021
Zaragoza vs Cartagena at 01 April 2021
Alcorcon vs Oviedo at 30 March 2021
Malaga vs Almeria at 30 March 2021
Ponferradina vs Logrones at 30 March 2021
Vallecano vs Sp Gijon at 30 March 2021
Sabadell vs Girona at 31 March 2021
Albacete vs Castellon at 31 March 2021
Mirandes vs Tenerife at 31 March 2021


Espanol vs Fuenlabrada at 01 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Espanol and Fuenlabrada for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 01 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Espanol

1.63

1.89

-8.4

Draw

3.51

3.89

-2.8

Fuenlabrada

5.94

4.67

4.6

Over 2.5

2.33

2.15

3.6

Under 2.5

1.60

1.87

-9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fuenlabrada, Over 2.5 (4.6 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Espanol in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Espanol in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance at home.
Espanol, at home, had 11 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Mar

Castellon

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Logrones

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Mirandes

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Mar

Oviedo

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Sp Gijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Sabadell

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Mallorca

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Feb

Lugo

A

1

1

D

U

G


Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance as a guest.
Fuenlabrada, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Mar

Mallorca

H

4

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Leganes

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Las Palmas

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Mar

Lugo

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Feb

Girona

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Feb

Oviedo

H

2

2

D

O

G

15 Feb

Castellon

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Almeria

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Espanol is 1 and for the Fuenlabrada is 0.061.
The home dynamic for the Espanol is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fuenlabrada is 0.11.
The offensive ability for the Espanol is 1 and for the Fuenlabrada is 0.427.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Espanol is -0.033 and for the Fuenlabrada is -0.166.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Espanol and the red line for guest team, Fuenlabrada.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Espanol

18%

34%

27%

21%

Fuenlabrada

40%

36%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.55 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.5 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.65

1

4.98

2-3

1.96

2

3.85

4+

4.61

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.65

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.03

3.75

4.15

2-3 goals

1.81

4.15

4.87

4+ goals

1.94

3.50

5.05

Ov 1.5

1.84

3.94

4.92

Un 1.5

2.03

3.75

4.15

Ov 2.5

1.61

7.55

4.03

Un 2.5

2.23

2.72

5.45

Ov 3.5

1.94

3.50

5.05

Un 3.5

1.88

4.01

4.59

Goal-Goal

2.38

2.68

4.82

No Goal

1.57

6.93

4.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.79

6.02

3.62

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

6.93

4.19


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Las Palmas vs Lugo at 01 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Las Palmas and Lugo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 01 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Las Palmas

2.05

2.17

-2.7

Draw

3.19

3.62

-3.7

Lugo

3.93

3.77

1.1

Over 2.5

2.50

2.31

3.3

Under 2.5

1.51

1.76

-9.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lugo, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Las Palmas in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Las Palmas in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance at home.
Las Palmas, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Mar

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

Girona

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Fuenlabrada

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Vallecano

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Castellon

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Feb

Cartagena

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Almeria

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Sabadell

H

0

1

L

U

N


Lugo in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance as a guest.
Lugo, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 24.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Mar

Sabadell

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Castellon

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Girona

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Mar

Fuenlabrada

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Almeria

A

1

4

L

O

G

21 Feb

Logrones

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

Oviedo

A

1

3

L

O

G

08 Feb

Espanol

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Las Palmas is -0.098 and for the Lugo is -0.768.
The home dynamic for the Las Palmas is 0.091 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lugo is -0.814.
The offensive ability for the Las Palmas is 0.556 and for the Lugo is -0.96.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Las Palmas is -0.589 and for the Lugo is -0.166.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Las Palmas and the red line for guest team, Lugo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Las Palmas

24%

35%

26%

16%

Lugo

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.26 goals and Lugo to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.33 goals and Lugo to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.32

1

4.67

2-3

1.99

2

3.76

4+

5.08

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.32

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

5.08

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.46

3.42

2-3 goals

2.05

3.92

3.89

4+ goals

2.21

3.23

4.19

Ov 1.5

2.09

3.70

3.97

Un 1.5

2.39

3.46

3.42

Ov 2.5

1.80

7.10

3.31

Un 2.5

2.59

2.64

4.26

Ov 3.5

2.21

3.23

4.19

Un 3.5

2.16

3.73

3.70

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.56

4.32

No Goal

1.86

5.93

3.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.84

3.18

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

5.93

3.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Mallorca vs Leganes at 01 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mallorca and Leganes for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 01 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mallorca

2.20

2.04

3.6

Draw

2.89

3.73

-7.8

Leganes

3.73

4.12

-2.5

Over 2.5

2.76

2.23

8.6

Under 2.5

1.42

1.81

-15.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mallorca, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 8.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mallorca in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mallorca in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance at home.
Mallorca, at home, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Mar

Fuenlabrada

A

1

4

L

O

G

20 Mar

Oviedo

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Sp Gijon

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Mar

Cartagena

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Logrones

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Almeria

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Espanol

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Feb

Albacete

A

1

0

W

U

N


Leganes in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leganes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance as a guest.
Leganes, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leganes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Almeria

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Fuenlabrada

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Mar

Oviedo

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Castellon

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Feb

Cartagena

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Feb

Tenerife

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Albacete

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Mallorca is 0.098 and for the Leganes is -0.282.
The home dynamic for the Mallorca is 0.329 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leganes is -0.271.
The offensive ability for the Mallorca is -0.078 and for the Leganes is -0.773.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mallorca is 0.411 and for the Leganes is -0.283.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mallorca and the red line for guest team, Leganes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mallorca

21%

34%

26%

18%

Leganes

37%

37%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mallorca to score 1.13 goals and Leganes to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.93 goals in the game and the home team Mallorca to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mallorca to score 1.41 goals and Leganes to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Mallorca to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.48

1

4.83

2-3

1.97

2

3.79

4+

4.83

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.48

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.59

3.68

2-3 goals

1.94

4.02

4.23

4+ goals

2.09

3.34

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.80

4.30

Un 1.5

2.22

3.59

3.68

Ov 2.5

1.72

7.26

3.57

Un 2.5

2.43

2.67

4.67

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.34

4.50

Un 3.5

2.04

3.85

4.01

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.62

4.48

No Goal

1.73

6.35

3.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.92

3.34

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.35

3.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Zaragoza vs Cartagena at 01 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Cartagena for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 01 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zaragoza

2.13

1.99

3.3

Draw

2.99

3.79

-7.1

Cartagena

3.96

4.29

-1.9

Over 2.5

2.67

2.19

8.2

Under 2.5

1.48

1.84

-13.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Zaragoza, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 8.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zaragoza in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance at home.
Zaragoza, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Logrones

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Mar

Mirandes

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Vallecano

A

2

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Tenerife

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Oviedo

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Alcorcon

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Feb

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Malaga

A

2

1

W

O

G


Cartagena in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance as a guest.
Cartagena, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Mar

Albacete

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Ponferradina

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Mallorca

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Feb

Leganes

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Las Palmas

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Vallecano

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Oviedo

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Zaragoza is -0.278 and for the Cartagena is -0.746.
The home dynamic for the Zaragoza is 0.217 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cartagena is -0.941.
The offensive ability for the Zaragoza is 0.144 and for the Cartagena is -0.16.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Zaragoza is 0.033 and for the Cartagena is -0.641.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zaragoza and the red line for guest team, Cartagena.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zaragoza

20%

34%

26%

19%

Cartagena

38%

36%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.21 goals and Cartagena to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2 goals in the game and the home team Zaragoza to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.44 goals and Cartagena to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Zaragoza to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.56

1

4.90

2-3

1.97

2

3.82

4+

4.76

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.56

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-