2021 03 30 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Panathinaikos vs Baskonia at 30 March 2021
Zalgiris Kaunas vs Alba Berlin at 30 March 2021
Real Madrid vs Efes at 30 March 2021
Zenit Saint Petersburg vs CSKA Moscow at 30 March 2021
Bayern Munchen vs Fenerbahce at 30 March 2021
Crvena Zvezda vs Olimpia Milano at 30 March 2021
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Barcelona at 30 March 2021
Khimki vs ASVEL at 31 March 2021
Valencia vs Olympiacos at 31 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Panathinaikos vs Baskonia at 30 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Baskonia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 30 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

3.32

2.55

Baskonia

1.43

1.64

Panathinaikos HC

+5.5

3.50

Baskonia HC

-5.5

-3.50

Point Line

157.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 25

A

Anadolu Efes

L

65

85

10

19

L 2

68

81

Mar 19

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

82

86

10

18

L 1

81

91

Mar 11

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

81

63

10

17

W 1

81

64

Mar 4

A

Bayern Munich

L

71

76

9

17

L 3

72

77

Mar 2

H

FC Barcelona

L

77

85

9

16

L 2

84

84

Feb 26

A

Alba Berlin

L

65

74

9

15

L 1

62

75

Feb 5

A

Olympiacos

W

88

77

9

14

W 2

87

77

Jan 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

91

72

8

14

W 1

89

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 26

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

86

69

16

14

W 3

87

68

Mar 18

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

79

75

15

14

W 2

83

77

Mar 12

H

Bayern Munich

W

78

71

14

14

W 1

79

72

Mar 5

A

FC Barcelona

L

57

71

13

14

L 1

62

70

Mar 3

H

Olympiacos

W

91

66

13

13

W 4

90

66

Feb 26

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

87

67

12

13

W 3

86

71

Feb 18

A

BC Khimki

W

89

67

11

13

W 2

76

68

Jan 29

H

Zalgiris

W

81

68

10

13

W 1

82

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 78 points and the Baskonia 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

Baskonia

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

17.70

19.90

DRB

21.20

22.10

AST-TO

1.37

1.44

TRB

31.10

31.90

FTM

13.80

13.00

BL

3.10

2.90

FTA

18.20

17.10

PF-Fewer

20.40

17.20

ST

6.90

8.40

TO-Fewer

12.90

13.80

Ftper

0.76

0.76

ORBper

0.47

0.44

ORB

9.90

9.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Zalgiris Kaunas vs Alba Berlin at 30 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zalgiris Kaunas and Alba Berlin for EuroLeague, which will take place on 30 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zalgiris Kaunas

1.47

1.68

Alba Berlin

2.77

2.47

Zalgiris Kaunas HC

-4.5

-3.50

Alba Berlin HC

+4.5

3.50

Point Line

159.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris Kaunas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 25

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

81

88

15

16

L 4

81

89

Mar 18

A

Fenerbahce

L

61

84

15

15

L 3

61

84

Mar 12

A

Anadolu Efes

L

62

89

15

14

L 2

65

85

Mar 5

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

64

69

15

13

L 1

65

68

Mar 2

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

85

75

15

12

W 1

84

76

Feb 25

A

Real Madrid

L

58

70

14

12

L 1

60

69

Feb 23

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

75

62

14

11

W 1

74

66

Feb 18

A

FC Barcelona

L

62

86

13

11

L 2

67

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 26

A

FC Barcelona

L

67

80

11

20

L 2

73

79

Mar 18

H

Olympiacos

L

80

84

11

19

L 1

79

84

Mar 11

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

95

89

11

18

W 2

94

91

Mar 5

A

BC Khimki

W

100

81

10

18

W 1

86

82

Mar 2

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

71

87

9

18

L 1

75

89

Feb 26

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

74

65

9

17

W 1

72

65

Feb 19

A

Fenerbahce

L

84

89

8

17

L 4

84

89

Feb 5

A

Bayern Munich

L

95

101

8

16

L 3

97

102

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris Kaunas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris Kaunas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zalgiris Kaunas (in the first graph) and by Alba Berlin in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zalgiris Kaunas will expected to score 79 points and the Alba Berlin 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zalgiris Kaunas

Alba Berlin

FG%

0.55

0.53

ASS

18.00

20.00

DRB

20.70

19.80

AST-TO

1.45

1.43

TRB

28.80

28.20

FTM

12.10

10.80

BL

1.00

2.10

FTA

14.40

13.00

PF-Fewer

19.40

18.30

ST

6.40

6.90

TO-Fewer

12.40

14.00

Ftper

0.84

0.83

ORBper

0.40

0.42

ORB

8.20

8.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Real Madrid vs Efes at 30 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Efes for EuroLeague, which will take place on 30 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Madrid

2.61

2.47

Efes

1.62

1.68

Real Madrid HC

+3.5

3.50

Efes HC

-3.5

-3.50

Point Line

160.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 25

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

74

71

18

12

W 1

73

72

Mar 18

H

CSKA Moscow

L

89

96

17

12

L 2

88

91

Mar 11

H

FC Barcelona

L

76

81

17

11

L 1

82

80

Mar 4

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

75

71

17

10

W 1

79

73

Mar 2

A

BC Khimki

L

77

78

16

10

L 1

66

79

Feb 25

H

Zalgiris

W

70

58

16

9

W 1

71

60

Feb 19

A

Valencia Basket

L

78

89

15

9

L 1

76

86

Jan 29

A

Alba Berlin

W

72

63

15

8

W 2

69

64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 25

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

85

65

20

11

W 1

82

65

Mar 19

A

Bayern Munich

L

79

80

19

11

L 1

80

81

Mar 16

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

90

66

19

10

W 8

90

67

Mar 12

H

Zalgiris

W

89

62

18

10

W 7

91

64

Mar 4

H

CSKA Moscow

W

100

70

17

10

W 6

98

66

Mar 2

H

Valencia Basket

W

99

83

16

10

W 5

97

80

Feb 26

A

Fenerbahce

W

106

74

15

10

W 4

106

74

Feb 18

H

Olympiacos

W

76

53

14

10

W 3

75

53

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Efes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Efes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Madrid (in the first graph) and by Efes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Madrid will expected to score 78 points and the Efes 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Madrid

Efes

FG%

0.56

0.58

ASS

18.30

18.40

DRB

23.50

20.80

AST-TO

1.44

1.70

TRB

31.90

28.20

FTM

12.00

13.60

BL

3.30

2.80

FTA

15.00

17.40

PF-Fewer

19.30

16.90

ST

6.50

7.10

TO-Fewer

12.70

10.80

Ftper

0.80

0.78

ORBper

0.36

0.36

ORB

8.40

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Zenit Saint Petersburg vs CSKA Moscow at 30 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit Saint Petersburg and CSKA Moscow for EuroLeague, which will take place on 30 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.98

2.76

CSKA Moscow

1.87

1.57

Zenit Saint Petersburg HC

+1.5

4.50

CSKA Moscow HC

-1.5

-4.50

Point Line

156.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit Saint Petersburg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 26

A

BC Khimki

W

91

70

17

13

W 1

78

71

Mar 18

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

75

79

16

13

L 3

78

78

Mar 12

A

Olympiacos

L

61

75

16

12

L 2

60

75

Mar 4

H

Real Madrid

L

71

75

16

11

L 1

73

74

Mar 2

H

Alba Berlin

W

87

71

16

10

W 1

83

72

Feb 25

H

Valencia Basket

L

62

91

15

10

L 1

61

88

Feb 22

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

79

70

15

9

W 2

80

69

Feb 19

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

76

75

14

9

W 1

76

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 25

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

87

72

20

10

W 2

86

76

Mar 18

A

Real Madrid

W

96

89

19

10

W 1

98

88

Mar 11

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

76

84

18

10

L 2

77

83

Mar 4

A

Anadolu Efes

L

70

100

18

9

L 1

74

95

Mar 2

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

84

80

18

8

W 2

84

81

Feb 25

A

Olympiacos

W

75

74

17

8

W 1

74

74

Feb 4

A

Valencia Basket

L

103

105

16

8

L 2

101

102

Jan 29

H

Bayern Munich

L

66

69

16

7

L 1

67

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit Saint Petersburg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit Saint Petersburg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit Saint Petersburg (in the first graph) and by CSKA Moscow in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zenit Saint Petersburg will expected to score 79 points and the CSKA Moscow 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zenit Saint Petersburg

CSKA Moscow

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

15.20

17.10

DRB

19.30

20.80

AST-TO

1.35

1.39

TRB

26.90

29.70

FTM

13.90

14.00

BL

2.30

2.80

FTA

17.10

16.90

PF-Fewer

20.80

22.20

ST

6.50

6.10

TO-Fewer

11.30

12.30

Ftper

0.81

0.83

ORBper

0.39

0.43

ORB

7.60

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Bayern Munchen vs Fenerbahce at 30 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bayern Munchen and Fenerbahce for EuroLeague, which will take place on 30 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bayern Munchen

2.12

2.44

Fenerbahce

1.75

1.70

Bayern Munchen HC

+1.5

3.00

Fenerbahce HC

-1.5

-3.00

Point Line

155.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munchen are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 25

A

Valencia Basket

L

76

83

19

12

L 1

74

80

Mar 19

H

Anadolu Efes

W

80

79

19

11

W 1

84

75

Mar 12

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

71

78

18

11

L 1

73

78

Mar 4

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

76

71

18

10