2021 04 02 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Augsburg vs Hoffenheim at 03 April 2021
Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt at 03 April 2021
Leverkusen vs Schalke 04 at 03 April 2021
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Freiburg at 03 April 2021
Mainz vs Bielefeld at 03 April 2021
RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich at 03 April 2021
Wolfsburg vs FC Koln at 03 April 2021
Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen at 04 April 2021
Union Berlin vs Hertha at 04 April 2021


Augsburg vs Hoffenheim at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Augsburg and Hoffenheim for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Augsburg

3.63

2.67

9.9

Draw

3.70

3.86

-1.1

Hoffenheim

1.99

2.72

-13.5

Over 2.5

1.66

1.86

-6.5

Under 2.5

2.28

2.17

2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Augsburg, Under 2.5 (9.9 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Augsburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Augsburg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance at home.
Augsburg, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Freiburg

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

M’gladbach

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Hertha

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Mainz

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Leverkusen

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Feb

RB Leipzig

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Wolfsburg

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Dortmund

A

1

3

L

O

G


Hoffenheim in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance as a guest.
Hoffenheim, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Stuttgart

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Wolfsburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Werder Bremen

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Dortmund

A

2

2

D

O

G

07 Feb

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Bayern Munich

A

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Augsburg is -0.103 and for the Hoffenheim is -0.059.
The home dynamic for the Augsburg is -0.434 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hoffenheim is -0.071.
The offensive ability for the Augsburg is 0.545 and for the Hoffenheim is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Augsburg is -0.631 and for the Hoffenheim is -0.704.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Augsburg and the red line for guest team, Hoffenheim.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Augsburg

26%

34%

18%

22%

Hoffenheim

28%

30%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Augsburg to score 1.13 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the guest team Hoffenheim to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Augsburg to score 1.35 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

4.03

1

5.71

2-3

2.20

2

4.69

4+

3.38

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.03

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

23.81

Un 2.5

2.17

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.38

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.40

3.14

2-3 goals

2.77

4.38

2.43

4+ goals

2.60

3.61

2.96

Ov 1.5

2.70

4.04

2.62

Un 1.5

2.58

3.40

3.14

Ov 2.5

2.36

6.56

2.36

Un 2.5

3.16

2.60

3.34

Ov 3.5

2.60

3.61

2.96

Un 3.5

2.70

3.97

2.64

Goal-Goal

3.17

2.86

2.99

No Goal

2.27

6.40

2.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.55

5.22

2.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.45

6.40

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dortmund and Ein Frankfurt for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dortmund

1.80

1.90

-2.9

Draw

4.04

4.17

-0.8

Ein Frankfurt

4.22

4.24

-0.1

Over 2.5

1.48

1.74

-10.1

Under 2.5

2.63

2.36

4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dortmund in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance at home.
Dortmund, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

FC Koln

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Hertha

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Bayern Munich

A

2

4

L

O

G

27 Feb

Bielefeld

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Schalke 04

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Hoffenheim

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Freiburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Augsburg

H

3

1

W

O

G


Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance as a guest.
Ein Frankfurt, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Union Berlin

H

5

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

RB Leipzig

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Stuttgart

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Feb

Werder Bremen

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Bayern Munich

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

FC Koln

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Hoffenheim

A

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Hertha

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Dortmund is 0.413 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.319.
The home dynamic for the Dortmund is 0.358 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.51.
The offensive ability for the Dortmund is 1 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Dortmund is 0.142 and for the Ein Frankfurt is -0.726.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dortmund and the red line for guest team, Ein Frankfurt.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dortmund

18%

31%

15%

36%

Ein Frankfurt

35%

33%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dortmund to score 2.09 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.19 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.68 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.29

1

5.92

2-3

2.23

2

5.24

4+

3.14

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.38

Un 1.5

4.29

5

11.24

Ov 2.5

1.74

6+

23.26

Un 2.5

2.36

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.14

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.47

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.16

3.64

3.82

2-3 goals

1.99

4.31

3.76

4+ goals

1.66

4.42

5.78

Ov 1.5

1.84

4.35

4.40

Un 1.5

2.16

3.64

3.82

Ov 2.5

1.58

7.99

4.17

Un 2.5

2.67

2.52

4.37

Ov 3.5

1.66

4.42

5.78

Un 3.5

2.05

4.05

3.78

Goal-Goal

2.22

3.02

4.59

No Goal

1.64

7.30

3.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.78

5.94

3.69

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

7.30

3.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leverkusen vs Schalke 04 at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leverkusen and Schalke 04 for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leverkusen

1.24

1.57

-17.0

Draw

6.56

4.63

6.4

Schalke 04

13.25

6.67

7.4

Over 2.5

1.51

1.65

-5.6

Under 2.5

2.52

2.54

-0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Schalke 04 (6.4 %, 7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leverkusen in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance at home.
Leverkusen, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Bielefeld

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

M’gladbach

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Freiburg

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Augsburg

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Mainz

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Stuttgart

H

5

2

W

O

G

30 Jan

RB Leipzig

A

0

1

L

U

N


Schalke 04 in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance as a guest.
Schalke 04, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

M’gladbach

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Wolfsburg

A

0

5

L

O

N

05 Mar

Mainz

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Stuttgart

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Feb

Dortmund

H

0

4

L

O

N

13 Feb

Union Berlin

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

30 Jan

Werder Bremen

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Leverkusen is -0.325 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.689.
The home dynamic for the Leverkusen is 0.292 and the dynamic as a guest for the Schalke 04 is -0.602.
The offensive ability for the Leverkusen is 0.545 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.974.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leverkusen is -0.597 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, Schalke 04.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leverkusen

12%

25%

28%

36%

Schalke 04

33%

45%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 2.66 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.12 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 2.2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.88 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

25.64

0-1

5.75

1

7.41

2-3

1.96

2

4.52

4+

3.17

3

3.46

Ov 1.5

1.21

4

4.57

Un 1.5

5.75

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.66

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.53

Gg

1.70

Ov 3.5

3.17

NoG

2.43

Un 3.5

1.46

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.10

4.46

3.35

2-3 goals

1.52

4.59

7.97

4+ goals

1.45

4.77

9.84

Ov 1.5

1.49

4.66

8.59

Un 1.5

2.10

4.46

3.35

Ov 2.5

1.31

9.15

7.74

Un 2.5

2.26

2.63

5.64

Ov 3.5

1.45

4.77

9.84

Un 3.5

1.64

4.56

5.90

Goal-Goal

1.73

3.32

8.28

No Goal

1.39

10.54

5.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.40

7.23

6.72

NG+Un 2.5

1.62

10.54

4.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

M’gladbach vs Freiburg at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between M’gladbach and Freiburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

M’gladbach

1.80

2.02

-6.1

Draw

4.02

4.02

0.0

Freiburg

4.26

3.89

2.2

Over 2.5

1.65

1.80

-5.1

Under 2.5

2.21

2.25

-0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Freiburg (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

M’gladbach in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance at home.
M’gladbach, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Schalke 04

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Mar

Augsburg

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Leverkusen

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

RB Leipzig

A

2

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Wolfsburg

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

FC Koln

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G


Freiburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance as a guest.
Freiburg, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Mainz

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Leverkusen

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Union Berlin

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Werder Bremen

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Dortmund

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Wolfsburg

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the M’gladbach is -0.429 and for the Freiburg is -0.148.
The home dynamic for the M’gladbach is 0.321 and the dynamic as a guest for the Freiburg is 0.154.
The offensive ability for the M’gladbach is 0.288 and for the Freiburg is -0.504.
Finally, the defensive ability for the M’gladbach is -0.227 and for the Freiburg is -0.333.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, M’gladbach and the red line for guest team, Freiburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

M’gladbach

19%

31%

21%

29%

Freiburg

32%

35%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.87 goals and Freiburg to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the home team M’gladbach to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.6 goals and Freiburg to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the home team M’gladbach to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.37

1

5.95

2-3

2.14

2

4.65

4+

3.31

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.49

Un 1.5

4.37

5

11.90

Ov 2.5

1.80

6+

27.78

Un 2.5

2.25

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG