2021 04 02 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Watford vs Sheffield Weds at 02 April 2021
Barnsley vs Reading at 02 April 2021
Birmingham vs Swansea at 02 April 2021
Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough at 02 April 2021
Bristol City vs Stoke at 02 April 2021
Derby vs Luton at 02 April 2021
Millwall vs Rotherham at 02 April 2021
Preston vs Norwich at 02 April 2021
QPR vs Coventry at 02 April 2021
Cardiff vs Nott’m Forest at 02 April 2021
Wycombe vs Blackburn at 02 April 2021
Huddersfield vs Brentford at 03 April 2021


Watford vs Sheffield Weds at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Sheffield Weds for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

1.52

1.68

-6.3

Draw

3.98

4.20

-1.3

Sheffield Weds

6.84

5.95

2.2

Over 2.5

2.08

2.05

0.7

Under 2.5

1.76

1.95

-5.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (2.2 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 15 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 47 points, 82.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Birmingham

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Rotherham

A

4

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Cardiff

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Nott’m Forest

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Wycombe

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Feb

Blackburn

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Feb

Derby

H

2

1

W

O

G


Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield Weds, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 24.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Barnsley

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Mar

Huddersfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Reading

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 Mar

Rotherham

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Luton

A

2

3

L

O

G

24 Feb

Brentford

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Birmingham

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Watford is 0.849 and for the Sheffield Weds is -0.422.
The home dynamic for the Watford is 0.509 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sheffield Weds is -0.253.
The offensive ability for the Watford is 0.682 and for the Sheffield Weds is 0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Watford is 0.176 and for the Sheffield Weds is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Sheffield Weds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

14%

33%

28%

25%

Sheffield Weds

42%

38%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.76 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 0.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.64 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

3.95

1

5.18

2-3

1.90

2

3.83

4+

4.50

3

3.79

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.95

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.82

4.22

4.69

2-3 goals

1.61

4.23

7.00

4+ goals

1.72

4.11

5.69

Ov 1.5

1.64

4.20

6.55

Un 1.5

1.82

4.22

4.69

Ov 2.5

1.44

9.00

5.17

Un 2.5

2.01

2.79

6.95

Ov 3.5

1.72

4.11

5.69

Un 3.5

1.67

4.23

6.03

Goal-Goal

2.13

2.79

5.84

No Goal

1.40

8.40

6.07

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.60

6.89

4.38

NG+Un 2.5

1.52

8.40

5.27


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barnsley vs Reading at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barnsley and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barnsley

2.31

2.36

-0.9

Draw

3.19

3.64

-3.9

Reading

3.28

3.32

-0.4

Over 2.5

2.34

2.19

2.9

Under 2.5

1.61

1.84

-7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barnsley in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance at home.
Barnsley, at home, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 59.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Sheffield Weds

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Mar

Wycombe

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Bournemouth

A

3

2

W

O

G

10 Mar

Derby

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Birmingham

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

QPR

A

3

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Millwall

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Feb

Stoke

H

2

0

W

U

N


Reading in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance as a guest.
Reading, as a guest, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 49.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Birmingham

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Nott’m Forest

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Sheffield Weds

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Middlesbrough

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Barnsley is 0.548 and for the Reading is 0.259.
The home dynamic for the Barnsley is 0.274 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reading is 0.162.
The offensive ability for the Barnsley is 0.631 and for the Reading is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Barnsley is -0.288 and for the Reading is -0.111.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnsley and the red line for guest team, Reading.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barnsley

25%

37%

21%

18%

Reading

33%

36%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.23 goals and Reading to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.32 goals and Reading to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.40

1

4.74

2-3

2.07

2

4.02

4+

4.46

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.40

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.41

3.54

3.30

2-3 goals

2.37

3.65

3.28

4+ goals

2.29

3.73

3.39

Ov 1.5

2.35

3.68

3.31

Un 1.5

2.41

3.54

3.30

Ov 2.5

1.97

7.62

2.77

Un 2.5

2.84

2.53

3.96

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.73

3.39

Un 3.5

2.39

3.61

3.29

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.61

3.66

No Goal

1.99

6.00

3.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

6.17

2.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

6.00

3.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Birmingham vs Swansea at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Birmingham and Swansea for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Birmingham

3.17

2.88

3.2

Draw

3.03

3.53

-4.7

Swansea

2.46

2.70

-3.6

Over 2.5

2.53

2.33

3.4

Under 2.5

1.53

1.75

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Birmingham, Over 2.5 (3.2 %, 3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Birmingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance at home.
Birmingham, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 26.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Watford

A

0

3

L

O

N

17 Mar

Reading

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Bristol City

H

0

3

L

O

N

06 Mar

Barnsley

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Huddersfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

QPR

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Norwich

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Sheffield Weds

A

1

0

W

U

N


Swansea in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance as a guest.
Swansea, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Bournemouth

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Luton

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Bristol City

H

1

3

L

O

G

24 Feb

Coventry

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Birmingham is -0.151 and for the Swansea is 0.074.
The home dynamic for the Birmingham is -0.5 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swansea is 0.253.
The offensive ability for the Birmingham is -0.227 and for the Swansea is 0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Birmingham is -1 and for the Swansea is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Birmingham and the red line for guest team, Swansea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Birmingham

34%

35%

16%

15%

Swansea

31%

36%

17%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Birmingham to score 0.95 goals and Swansea to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.13 goals and Swansea to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

2.97

1

4.33

2-3

2.21

2

4.27

4+

4.74

3

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

7.35

Un 1.5

2.97

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.09

3.18

2.76

2-3 goals

2.88

3.59

2.67

4+ goals

2.60

4.14

2.67

Ov 1.5

2.79

3.75

2.67

Un 1.5

3.09

3.18

2.76

Ov 2.5

2.29

8.41

2.25

Un 2.5

3.57

2.46

3.19

Ov 3.5

2.60

4.14

2.67

Un 3.5

2.97

3.40

2.71

Goal-Goal

3.27

2.56

3.29

No Goal

2.62

5.15

2.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.36

6.43

2.38

NG+Un 2.5

2.78

5.15

2.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bournemouth and Middlesbrough for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bournemouth

2.21

2.07

3.1

Draw

3.33

3.86

-4.1

Middlesbrough

3.34

3.89

-4.2

Over 2.5

2.19

2.06

2.9

Under 2.5

1.69

1.94

-7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bournemouth, Over 2.5 (3.1 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bournemouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance at home.
Bournemouth, at home, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 63.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Swansea

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Barnsley

H

2

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Preston

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Bristol City

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Watford

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Cardiff

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

QPR

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Rotherham

H

1

0

W

U

N


Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance as a guest.
Middlesbrough, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 40.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Millwall

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Preston

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Stoke

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Swansea

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Coventry

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Cardiff

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Bristol City

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Reading

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Bournemouth is 0.27 and for the Middlesbrough is 0.148.
The home dynamic for the Bournemouth is 0.434 and the dynamic as a guest for the Middlesbrough is -0.095.
The offensive ability for the Bournemouth is 1 and for the Middlesbrough is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bournemouth is -0.202 and for the Middlesbrough is -0.281.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bournemouth and the red line for guest team, Middlesbrough.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bournemouth

22%

29%

29%

19%

Middlesbrough

34%

39%

17%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.31 goals and Middlesbrough to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.45 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.77

1

5.32

2-3

2.00

2

3.98

4+

4.27

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.77

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.27

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-