# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Watford vs Sheffield Weds at 02 April 2021**** Barnsley vs Reading at 02 April 2021**** Birmingham vs Swansea at 02 April 2021**** Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough at 02 April 2021**** Bristol City vs Stoke at 02 April 2021**** Derby vs Luton at 02 April 2021**** Millwall vs Rotherham at 02 April 2021**** Preston vs Norwich at 02 April 2021**** QPR vs Coventry at 02 April 2021**** Cardiff vs Nott’m Forest at 02 April 2021**** Wycombe vs Blackburn at 02 April 2021**** Huddersfield vs Brentford at 03 April 2021**

###
Watford vs Sheffield Weds at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Sheffield Weds** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
1.52 |
1.68 |
-6.3 |

Draw |
3.98 |
4.20 |
-1.3 |

Sheffield Weds |
6.84 |
5.95 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.05 |
0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.95 |
-5.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (2.2 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 15 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 47 points, 82.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Birmingham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Mar |
Rotherham |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Blackburn |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Feb |
Derby |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Sheffield Weds** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield Weds** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance** as a guest**.

Sheffield Weds,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 24.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Barnsley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Mar |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Reading |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Mar |
Rotherham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Luton |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Watford** is **0.849** and for the **Sheffield Weds** is **-0.422.**

The home dynamic for the **Watford** is **0.509** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sheffield Weds** is **-0.253.**

The offensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.682** and for the **Sheffield Weds** is **0.626.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.176** and for the **Sheffield Weds** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Sheffield Weds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
14% |
33% |
28% |
25% |

Sheffield Weds |
42% |
38% |
14% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.76 ** goals and **Sheffield Weds** to score **0.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **1.15** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Sheffield Weds** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.79** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.67 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
1.90 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
3.79 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.82 |
4.22 |
4.69 |

2-3 goals |
1.61 |
4.23 |
7.00 |

4+ goals |
1.72 |
4.11 |
5.69 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.64 |
4.20 |
6.55 |

Un 1.5 |
1.82 |
4.22 |
4.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.44 |
9.00 |
5.17 |

Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.79 |
6.95 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.72 |
4.11 |
5.69 |

Un 3.5 |
1.67 |
4.23 |
6.03 |

Goal-Goal |
2.13 |
2.79 |
5.84 |

No Goal |
1.40 |
8.40 |
6.07 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
6.89 |
4.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.52 |
8.40 |
5.27 |

####
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###
Barnsley vs Reading at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barnsley** and **Reading** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barnsley |
2.31 |
2.36 |
-0.9 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.64 |
-3.9 |

Reading |
3.28 |
3.32 |
-0.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.19 |
2.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.84 |
-7.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barnsley** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barnsley** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance** at home**.

Barnsley,** at home**, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 59.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Wycombe |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Bournemouth |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Mar |
Derby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
QPR |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Millwall |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Stoke |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** as a guest**.

Reading,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 49.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Barnsley** is **0.548** and for the **Reading** is **0.259.**

The home dynamic for the **Barnsley** is **0.274** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Reading** is **0.162.**

The offensive ability for the **Barnsley** is **0.631** and for the **Reading** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Barnsley** is **-0.288** and for the **Reading** is **-0.111.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barnsley** and the red line for guest team, **Reading. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barnsley |
25% |
37% |
21% |
18% |

Reading |
33% |
36% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barnsley** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Reading** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barnsley** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Reading** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.40 |

1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.41 |
3.54 |
3.30 |

2-3 goals |
2.37 |
3.65 |
3.28 |

4+ goals |
2.29 |
3.73 |
3.39 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.68 |
3.31 |

Un 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.54 |
3.30 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
7.62 |
2.77 |

Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.53 |
3.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.73 |
3.39 |

Un 3.5 |
2.39 |
3.61 |
3.29 |

Goal-Goal |
2.90 |
2.61 |
3.66 |

No Goal |
1.99 |
6.00 |
3.02 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.17 |
2.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.00 |
3.00 |

####
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###
Birmingham vs Swansea at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Birmingham** and **Swansea** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Birmingham |
3.17 |
2.88 |
3.2 |

Draw |
3.03 |
3.53 |
-4.7 |

Swansea |
2.46 |
2.70 |
-3.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.33 |
3.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.75 |
-8.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Birmingham, Over 2.5 (3.2 %, 3.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Birmingham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Birmingham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance** at home**.

Birmingham,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 26.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Watford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Mar |
Reading |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Bristol City |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
QPR |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Swansea** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swansea** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance** as a guest**.

Swansea,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Luton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Middlesbrough |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Birmingham** is **-0.151** and for the **Swansea** is **0.074.**

The home dynamic for the **Birmingham** is **-0.5** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Swansea** is **0.253.**

The offensive ability for the **Birmingham** is **-0.227** and for the **Swansea** is **0.104.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Birmingham** is **-1** and for the **Swansea** is **-0.652.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Birmingham** and the red line for guest team, **Swansea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Birmingham |
34% |
35% |
16% |
15% |

Swansea |
31% |
36% |
17% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Birmingham** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Swansea** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.08** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Birmingham** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Swansea** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
2.97 |

1 |
4.33 |
2-3 |
2.21 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
4.74 |

3 |
4.59 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
2.97 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.75 |

Gg |
2.20 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.09 |
3.18 |
2.76 |

2-3 goals |
2.88 |
3.59 |
2.67 |

4+ goals |
2.60 |
4.14 |
2.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.79 |
3.75 |
2.67 |

Un 1.5 |
3.09 |
3.18 |
2.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
8.41 |
2.25 |

Un 2.5 |
3.57 |
2.46 |
3.19 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |
4.14 |
2.67 |

Un 3.5 |
2.97 |
3.40 |
2.71 |

Goal-Goal |
3.27 |
2.56 |
3.29 |

No Goal |
2.62 |
5.15 |
2.35 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.43 |
2.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
5.15 |
2.49 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bournemouth** and **Middlesbrough** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bournemouth |
2.21 |
2.07 |
3.1 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.86 |
-4.1 |

Middlesbrough |
3.34 |
3.89 |
-4.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.06 |
2.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.94 |
-7.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bournemouth, Over 2.5 (3.1 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bournemouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bournemouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance** at home**.

Bournemouth,** at home**, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 63.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Mar |
Swansea |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Barnsley |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Preston |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Mar |
Bristol City |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Watford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
QPR |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Rotherham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Middlesbrough** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Middlesbrough** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance** as a guest**.

Middlesbrough,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 40.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Preston |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Stoke |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Coventry |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Reading |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Bournemouth** is **0.27** and for the **Middlesbrough** is **0.148.**

The home dynamic for the **Bournemouth** is **0.434** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Middlesbrough** is **-0.095.**

The offensive ability for the **Bournemouth** is **1** and for the **Middlesbrough** is **0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bournemouth** is **-0.202** and for the **Middlesbrough** is **-0.281.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bournemouth** and the red line for guest team, **Middlesbrough. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bournemouth |
22% |
29% |
29% |
19% |

Middlesbrough |
34% |
39% |
17% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bournemouth** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Middlesbrough** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Bournemouth ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bournemouth** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Middlesbrough** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Bournemouth ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.27 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |