2021 04 02 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Barnet vs Solihull at 02 April 2021
Eastleigh vs Chesterfield at 02 April 2021
Torquay vs Woking at 02 April 2021
Notts County vs Wrexham at 02 April 2021
Boreham Wood vs Sutton at 02 April 2021
Altrincham vs Yeovil at 02 April 2021
Aldershot vs Stockport at 02 April 2021
Weymouth vs Maidenhead at 02 April 2021
Bromley vs Wealdstone at 02 April 2021
Hartlepool vs Dag and Red at 02 April 2021


Barnet vs Solihull at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barnet and Solihull for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barnet

4.73

3.15

10.6

Draw

3.85

3.62

1.7

Solihull

1.70

2.46

-18.2

Over 2.5

1.89

1.99

-2.7

Under 2.5

1.96

2.01

-1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barnet, Draw (10.6 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barnet in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance at home.
Barnet, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 17.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Yeovil

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Chesterfield

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Stockport

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Mar

Wrexham

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Yeovil

H

1

4

L

O

G

27 Feb

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

1

5

L

O

G


Solihull in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance as a guest.
Solihull, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 27.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Mar

Wealdstone

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Mar

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Torquay

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Bromley

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Halifax

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Stockport

H

0

5

L

O

N

06 Mar

Maidenhead

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Barnet is -0.825 and for the Solihull is -0.237.
The home dynamic for the Barnet is -0.519 and the dynamic as a guest for the Solihull is -0.079.
The offensive ability for the Barnet is 0.227 and for the Solihull is -0.452.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Barnet is -1 and for the Solihull is -0.237.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnet and the red line for guest team, Solihull.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barnet

24%

44%

21%

12%

Solihull

24%

33%

25%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnet to score 0.83 goals and Solihull to score 1.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Solihull to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.19 goals and Solihull to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.12

1

5.41

2-3

1.99

2

3.92

4+

3.95

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.12

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.74

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.36

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.34

4.19

3.00

2-3 goals

3.47

3.47

2.36

4+ goals

3.78

3.51

2.22

Ov 1.5

3.57

3.48

2.31

Un 1.5

2.34

4.19

3.00

Ov 2.5

3.07

6.96

1.88

Un 2.5

3.25

2.45

3.51

Ov 3.5

3.78

3.51

2.22

Un 3.5

3.00

3.67

2.54

Goal-Goal

4.24

2.65

2.58

No Goal

2.35

7.29

2.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.17

5.99

1.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.31

7.29

2.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Eastleigh vs Chesterfield at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Eastleigh and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Eastleigh

3.37

2.39

12.2

Draw

3.22

3.73

-4.2

Chesterfield

2.11

3.18

-15.9

Over 2.5

2.33

1.99

7.3

Under 2.5

1.58

2.01

-13.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh, Over 2.5 (12.2 %, 7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Eastleigh in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance at home.
Eastleigh, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

King’s Lynn

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Stockport

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Mar

Halifax

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Wrexham

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Hartlepool

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Wealdstone

A

0

0

D

U

N


Chesterfield in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance as a guest.
Chesterfield, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Weymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Aldershot

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Maidenhead

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Yeovil

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Eastleigh

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Stockport

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Eastleigh is -0.302 and for the Chesterfield is 0.385.
The home dynamic for the Eastleigh is 0.179 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chesterfield is 0.071.
The offensive ability for the Eastleigh is 0.227 and for the Chesterfield is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Eastleigh is -0.253 and for the Chesterfield is 0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eastleigh and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Eastleigh

23%

35%

24%

18%

Chesterfield

30%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 0.91 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the guest team Chesterfield to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.37 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.98

1

5.43

2-3

2.03

2

4.07

4+

3.92

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.98

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.41

3.75

3.14

2-3 goals

2.35

3.97

3.09

4+ goals

2.48

3.31

3.40

Ov 1.5

2.39

3.72

3.19

Un 1.5

2.41

3.75

3.14

Ov 2.5

2.08

6.51

2.74

Un 2.5

2.84

2.60

3.79

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.31

3.40

Un 3.5

2.37

3.89

3.11

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.70

3.53

No Goal

2.00

6.79

2.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

5.44

2.72

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

6.79

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torquay vs Woking at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

1.72

1.93

-6.3

Draw

3.54

4.05

-3.6

Woking

4.83

4.26

2.8

Over 2.5

1.99

1.95

1.0

Under 2.5

1.76

2.05

-8.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking, Over 2.5 (2.8 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Dag and Red

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Maidenhead

A

1

4

L

O

G

13 Mar

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Solihull

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Halifax

H

2

3

L

O

G


Woking in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Yeovil

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Boreham Wood

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Altrincham

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Torquay is -0.071 and for the Woking is -0.015.
The home dynamic for the Torquay is 0.283 and the dynamic as a guest for the Woking is -0.253.
The offensive ability for the Torquay is -0.116 and for the Woking is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Torquay is 0.176 and for the Woking is -0.037.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torquay and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torquay

22%

26%

26%

26%

Woking

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.63 goals and Woking to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.55 goals and Woking to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.94

1

5.71

2-3

2.04

2

4.29

4+

3.89

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.02

Un 1.5

3.94

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

3.22

3.14

2-3 goals

1.73

5.04

4.45

4+ goals

1.81

3.62

5.84

Ov 1.5

1.76

4.44

4.84

Un 1.5

2.70

3.22

3.14

Ov 2.5

1.55

7.23

4.58

Un 2.5

2.59

2.77

3.96

Ov 3.5

1.81

3.62

5.84

Un 3.5

1.98

4.22

3.89

Goal-Goal

2.10

2.98

5.33

No Goal

1.79

6.32

3.54

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.69

5.69

4.30

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

6.32

3.17


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Notts County vs Wrexham at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Notts County and Wrexham for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Notts County

2.22

2.29

-1.4

Draw

3.20

3.77

-4.7

Wrexham

3.14

3.34

-1.9

Over 2.5

2.23

1.99

5.4

Under 2.5

1.63

2.01

-11.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Notts County in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance at home.
Notts County, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Mar

Aldershot

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Yeovil

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Yeovil

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Boreham Wood

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Stockport

A

0

0

D

U

N


Wrexham in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance as a guest.
Wrexham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Bromley

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Eastleigh

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Weymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Sutton

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Wealdstone

H

4

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Hartlepool

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Aldershot

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Notts County is 0.056 and for the Wrexham is 0.667.
The home dynamic for the Notts County is 0.349 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wrexham is 0.062.
The offensive ability for the Notts County is 0.545 and for the Wrexham is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Notts County is -0.253 and for the Wrexham is 0.356.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Notts County and the red line for guest team, Wrexham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Notts County

23%

33%

24%

19%

Wrexham

31%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.25 goals and Wrexham to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.41 goals and Wrexham to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.95

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.91

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.95

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at