# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sparta Rotterdam vs Zwolle at 03 April 2021**** Twente vs Vitesse at 03 April 2021**** VVV Venlo vs Groningen at 03 April 2021**** Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar at 03 April 2021**** Den Haag vs Utrecht at 04 April 2021**** FC Emmen vs Waalwijk at 04 April 2021**** Feyenoord vs For Sittard at 04 April 2021**** Heerenveen vs Ajax at 04 April 2021**** PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles at 04 April 2021**

###
Sparta Rotterdam vs Zwolle at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sparta Rotterdam** and **Zwolle** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **03 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sparta Rotterdam |
2.10 |
2.21 |
-2.4 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.95 |
-3.7 |

Zwolle |
3.38 |
3.38 |
0.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.78 |
3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.28 |
-7.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance** at home**.

Sparta Rotterdam,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Mar |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** as a guest**.

Zwolle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Mar |
VVV Venlo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Feb |
Heerenveen |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
FC Emmen |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **0.151** and for the **Zwolle** is **-0.281.**

The home dynamic for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.519** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Zwolle** is **-0.071.**

The offensive ability for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **0.657** and for the **Zwolle** is **0.243.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.167** and for the **Zwolle** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sparta Rotterdam** and the red line for guest team, **Zwolle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sparta Rotterdam |
22% |
27% |
27% |
24% |

Zwolle |
26% |
40% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the home team **Sparta Rotterdam ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
4.65 |

1 |
6.37 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.50 |
4+ |
3.27 |

3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.38 |
Un 1.5 |
4.65 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.29 |

Gg |
1.74 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.27 |

NoG |
2.36 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.12 |
3.71 |
2.44 |

2-3 goals |
1.99 |
4.54 |
3.61 |

4+ goals |
2.15 |
3.44 |
4.08 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.05 |
4.04 |
3.78 |

Un 1.5 |
3.12 |
3.71 |
2.44 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
6.30 |
3.48 |

Un 2.5 |
3.12 |
2.68 |
3.26 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.44 |
4.08 |

Un 3.5 |
2.24 |
4.25 |
3.15 |

Goal-Goal |
2.30 |
2.96 |
4.42 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
7.31 |
2.57 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
5.27 |
3.61 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
7.31 |
2.48 |

####
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###
Twente vs Vitesse at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Twente** and **Vitesse** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **03 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Twente |
2.73 |
2.61 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.88 |
-4.2 |

Vitesse |
2.53 |
2.79 |
-3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.65 |
7.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.53 |
-11.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Twente, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 7.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Twente** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Twente** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance** at home**.

Twente,** at home**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Mar |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Vitesse |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Vitesse** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vitesse** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance** as a guest**.

Vitesse,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Mar |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
VVV Venlo |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Twente |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Twente** is **0.016** and for the **Vitesse** is **0.237.**

The home dynamic for the **Twente** is **-0.406** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Vitesse** is **0.071.**

The offensive ability for the **Twente** is **0.545** and for the **Vitesse** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Twente** is **-0.227** and for the **Vitesse** is **-0.607.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Twente** and the red line for guest team, **Vitesse. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Twente |
23% |
29% |
25% |
23% |

Vitesse |
19% |
37% |
25% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Twente** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Vitesse** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Twente** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Vitesse** to score **1.44 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.93** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
23.26 |
0-1 |
5.49 |

1 |
7.19 |
2-3 |
2.15 |

2 |
4.69 |
4+ |
2.84 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.22 |

4 |
4.93 |
Un 1.5 |
5.49 |

5 |
9.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |

6+ |
22.73 |
Un 2.5 |
2.53 |

Gg |
1.60 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.84 |

NoG |
2.67 |
Un 3.5 |
1.54 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.31 |
4.23 |
2.17 |

2-3 goals |
2.52 |
4.31 |
2.69 |

4+ goals |
2.46 |
3.29 |
3.45 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.49 |
3.80 |
2.97 |

Un 1.5 |
3.31 |
4.23 |
2.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.65 |
2.78 |

Un 2.5 |
3.83 |
2.62 |
2.80 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.29 |
3.45 |

Un 3.5 |
2.70 |
4.29 |
2.52 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.91 |
3.58 |

No Goal |
2.54 |
8.70 |
2.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
4.84 |
2.96 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
8.70 |
2.04 |

####
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###
VVV Venlo vs Groningen at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **VVV Venlo** and **Groningen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **03 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

VVV Venlo |
3.64 |
2.81 |
8.1 |

Draw |
3.55 |
3.53 |
0.2 |

Groningen |
1.98 |
2.76 |
-14.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.87 |
-2.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.15 |
-2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **VVV Venlo, Draw (8.1 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** at home**.

VVV Venlo,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 10 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Mar |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Groningen** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Groningen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance** as a guest**.

Groningen,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **VVV Venlo** is **-1** and for the **Groningen** is **-0.207.**

The home dynamic for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.217** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Groningen** is **0.187.**

The offensive ability for the **VVV Venlo** is **0.227** and for the **Groningen** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **VVV Venlo** is **-1** and for the **Groningen** is **-0.385.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **VVV Venlo** and the red line for guest team, **Groningen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

VVV Venlo |
23% |
38% |
18% |
20% |

Groningen |
18% |
44% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **VVV Venlo** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Groningen** to score **1.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the guest team **Groningen ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **VVV Venlo** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Groningen** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
23.81 |
0-1 |
4.72 |

1 |
5.88 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
3.38 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |

4 |
5.26 |
Un 1.5 |
4.72 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |

Gg |
1.58 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |

NoG |
2.70 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.03 |
5.05 |
2.12 |

2-3 goals |
3.24 |
2.93 |
2.85 |

4+ goals |
2.21 |
4.05 |
3.33 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.27 |
3.01 |

Un 1.5 |
3.03 |
5.05 |
2.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
7.34 |
2.54 |

Un 2.5 |
4.47 |
2.21 |
3.08 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.21 |
4.05 |
3.33 |

Un 3.5 |
3.18 |
3.36 |
2.58 |

Goal-Goal |
2.93 |
2.62 |
3.61 |

No Goal |
2.62 |
8.81 |
1.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.34 |
2.65 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
8.81 |
1.97 |

####
Go to Top

###
Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Willem II** and **AZ Alkmaar** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **03 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Willem II |
5.50 |
2.75 |
18.2 |

Draw |
4.38 |
3.51 |
5.7 |

AZ Alkmaar |
1.50 |
2.84 |
-31.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.44 |
1.81 |
-14.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.24 |
7.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Willem II, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.2 %, 5.7 %, 7.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Willem II** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Willem II** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance** at home**.

Willem II,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Mar |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Heerenveen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Twente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Feb |
Utrecht |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**AZ Alkmaar** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AZ Alkmaar** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance** as a guest**.

AZ Alkmaar,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Mar |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Twente |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
VVV Venlo |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Heerenveen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Willem II** is **0.294** and for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **0.652.**

The home dynamic for the **Willem II** is **-0.509** and the dynamic as a guest for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **0.809.**

The offensive ability for the **Willem II** is **0.227** and for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Willem II** is **-0.167** and for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **-0.607.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Willem II** and the red line for guest team, **AZ Alkmaar. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Willem II |
21% |
37% |
22% |
20% |

AZ Alkmaar |
16% |
46% |
22% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Willem II** to score **0.9 ** goals and **AZ Alkmaar** to score **2.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.27** goals in the game and the guest team **AZ Alkmaar ** to win by **1.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Willem II** to score **1.4 ** goals and **AZ Alkmaar** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
28.57 |
0-1 |
5.15 |

1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
3.28 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.24 |

4 |
5.08 |
Un 1.5 |
5.15 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |

Gg |
1.52 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.28 |

NoG |