2021 04 02 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sparta Rotterdam vs Zwolle at 03 April 2021
Twente vs Vitesse at 03 April 2021
VVV Venlo vs Groningen at 03 April 2021
Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar at 03 April 2021
Den Haag vs Utrecht at 04 April 2021
FC Emmen vs Waalwijk at 04 April 2021
Feyenoord vs For Sittard at 04 April 2021
Heerenveen vs Ajax at 04 April 2021
PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles at 04 April 2021


Sparta Rotterdam vs Zwolle at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sparta Rotterdam and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sparta Rotterdam

2.10

2.21

-2.4

Draw

3.45

3.95

-3.7

Zwolle

3.38

3.38

0.0

Over 2.5

1.91

1.78

3.8

Under 2.5

1.94

2.28

-7.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance at home.
Sparta Rotterdam, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Heracles

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Waalwijk

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

VVV Venlo

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

FC Emmen

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Willem II

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Ajax

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Feb

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Den Haag

A

1

1

D

U

G


Zwolle in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

VVV Venlo

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Ajax

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Mar

Heracles

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Feb

Heerenveen

H

4

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

FC Emmen

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Groningen

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Waalwijk

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Utrecht

A

3

3

D

O

G


The form score for the Sparta Rotterdam is 0.151 and for the Zwolle is -0.281.
The home dynamic for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.519 and the dynamic as a guest for the Zwolle is -0.071.
The offensive ability for the Sparta Rotterdam is 0.657 and for the Zwolle is 0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.167 and for the Zwolle is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sparta Rotterdam and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sparta Rotterdam

22%

27%

27%

24%

Zwolle

26%

40%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.49 goals and Zwolle to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Sparta Rotterdam to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.52 goals and Zwolle to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.65

1

6.37

2-3

2.10

2

4.50

4+

3.27

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.38

Un 1.5

4.65

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

1.78

6+

30.30

Un 2.5

2.29

Gg

1.74

Ov 3.5

3.27

NoG

2.36

Un 3.5

1.45

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.12

3.71

2.44

2-3 goals

1.99

4.54

3.61

4+ goals

2.15

3.44

4.08

Ov 1.5

2.05

4.04

3.78

Un 1.5

3.12

3.71

2.44

Ov 2.5

1.80

6.30

3.48

Un 2.5

3.12

2.68

3.26

Ov 3.5

2.15

3.44

4.08

Un 3.5

2.24

4.25

3.15

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.96

4.42

No Goal

2.11

7.31

2.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.27

3.61

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

7.31

2.48


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Twente vs Vitesse at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Twente and Vitesse for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Twente

2.73

2.61

1.7

Draw

3.34

3.88

-4.2

Vitesse

2.53

2.79

-3.7

Over 2.5

1.88

1.65

7.4

Under 2.5

1.95

2.53

-11.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Twente, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Twente in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Twente in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance at home.
Twente, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Mar

Heerenveen

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Mar

Willem II

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Heracles

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Vitesse

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Heerenveen

H

0

0

D

U

N


Vitesse in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance as a guest.
Vitesse, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Willem II

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Utrecht

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

AZ Alkmaar

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

VVV Venlo

H

4

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Twente

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Heerenveen

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Waalwijk

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Twente is 0.016 and for the Vitesse is 0.237.
The home dynamic for the Twente is -0.406 and the dynamic as a guest for the Vitesse is 0.071.
The offensive ability for the Twente is 0.545 and for the Vitesse is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Twente is -0.227 and for the Vitesse is -0.607.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Twente and the red line for guest team, Vitesse.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Twente

23%

29%

25%

23%

Vitesse

19%

37%

25%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Twente to score 1.25 goals and Vitesse to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Twente to score 1.49 goals and Vitesse to score 1.44 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

23.26

0-1

5.49

1

7.19

2-3

2.15

2

4.69

4+

2.84

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.22

4

4.93

Un 1.5

5.49

5

9.52

Ov 2.5

1.65

6+

22.73

Un 2.5

2.53

Gg

1.60

Ov 3.5

2.84

NoG

2.67

Un 3.5

1.54

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.31

4.23

2.17

2-3 goals

2.52

4.31

2.69

4+ goals

2.46

3.29

3.45

Ov 1.5

2.49

3.80

2.97

Un 1.5

3.31

4.23

2.17

Ov 2.5

2.16

5.65

2.78

Un 2.5

3.83

2.62

2.80

Ov 3.5

2.46

3.29

3.45

Un 3.5

2.70

4.29

2.52

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.91

3.58

No Goal

2.54

8.70

2.03

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

4.84

2.96

NG+Un 2.5

2.79

8.70

2.04


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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VVV Venlo vs Groningen at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between VVV Venlo and Groningen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

VVV Venlo

3.64

2.81

8.1

Draw

3.55

3.53

0.2

Groningen

1.98

2.76

-14.3

Over 2.5

1.79

1.87

-2.4

Under 2.5

2.04

2.15

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at VVV Venlo, Draw (8.1 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

VVV Venlo in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance at home.
VVV Venlo, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 10 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Zwolle

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

For Sittard

H

1

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Feyenoord

A

0

6

L

O

N

27 Feb

Vitesse

A

1

4

L

O

G

20 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

4

L

O

G

14 Feb

Utrecht

A

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

For Sittard

A

2

3

L

O

G


Groningen in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance as a guest.
Groningen, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Waalwijk

A

1

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

FC Emmen

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Ajax

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Feb

For Sittard

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Feyenoord

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Heerenveen

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Zwolle

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Heracles

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the VVV Venlo is -1 and for the Groningen is -0.207.
The home dynamic for the VVV Venlo is -0.217 and the dynamic as a guest for the Groningen is 0.187.
The offensive ability for the VVV Venlo is 0.227 and for the Groningen is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the VVV Venlo is -1 and for the Groningen is -0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, VVV Venlo and the red line for guest team, Groningen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

VVV Venlo

23%

38%

18%

20%

Groningen

18%

44%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.05 goals and Groningen to score 1.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the guest team Groningen to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.36 goals and Groningen to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

23.81

0-1

4.72

1

5.88

2-3

2.03

2

3.95

4+

3.38

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.26

Un 1.5

4.72

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.87

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

2.15

Gg

1.58

Ov 3.5

3.38

NoG

2.70

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.03

5.05

2.12

2-3 goals

3.24

2.93

2.85

4+ goals

2.21

4.05

3.33

Ov 1.5

2.76

3.27

3.01

Un 1.5

3.03

5.05

2.12

Ov 2.5

2.13

7.34

2.54

Un 2.5

4.47

2.21

3.08

Ov 3.5

2.21

4.05

3.33

Un 3.5

3.18

3.36

2.58

Goal-Goal

2.93

2.62

3.61

No Goal

2.62

8.81

1.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

6.34

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.86

8.81

1.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Willem II and AZ Alkmaar for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Willem II

5.50

2.75

18.2

Draw

4.38

3.51

5.7

AZ Alkmaar

1.50

2.84

-31.5

Over 2.5

1.44

1.81

-14.2

Under 2.5

2.71

2.24

7.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Willem II, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.2 %, 5.7 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

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Basic data and latest results

Willem II in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Willem II in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance at home.
Willem II, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Vitesse

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Heerenveen

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Twente

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Sparta Rotterdam

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Utrecht

H

0

6

L

O

N

14 Feb

Feyenoord

A

0

5

L

O

N

31 Jan

FC Emmen

H

2

0

W

U

N


AZ Alkmaar in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AZ Alkmaar in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance as a guest.
AZ Alkmaar, as a guest, had 7 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

PSV Eindhoven

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Twente

H

4

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Vitesse

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Feyenoord

H

4

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

VVV Venlo

A

4

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Heerenveen

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

FC Emmen

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Ajax

H

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Willem II is 0.294 and for the AZ Alkmaar is 0.652.
The home dynamic for the Willem II is -0.509 and the dynamic as a guest for the AZ Alkmaar is 0.809.
The offensive ability for the Willem II is 0.227 and for the AZ Alkmaar is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Willem II is -0.167 and for the AZ Alkmaar is -0.607.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Willem II and the red line for guest team, AZ Alkmaar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Willem II

21%

37%

22%

20%

AZ Alkmaar

16%

46%

22%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Willem II to score 0.9 goals and AZ Alkmaar to score 2.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.27 goals in the game and the guest team AZ Alkmaar to win by 1.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.4 goals and AZ Alkmaar to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

28.57

0-1

5.15

1

6.29

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

3.28

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.24

4

5.08

Un 1.5

5.15

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

32.26

Un 2.5

2.23

Gg

1.52

Ov 3.5

3.28

NoG