2021 04 02 France’s LNB Pro A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Elan Chalon vs JL Bourg-en-Bresse at 02 April 2021
Chalons-Reims vs Pau-Lacq-Orthez at 02 April 2021
Nanterre vs Boulazac Dordogne Pro at 03 April 2021
Monaco vs Orleans at 03 April 2021
Gravelines vs Metropolitans 92 at 03 April 2021
Limoges vs Roanne at 03 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Elan Chalon vs JL Bourg-en-Bresse at 02 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Elan Chalon and JL Bourg-en-Bresse for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 02 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Elan Chalon

2.35

4.78

JL Bourg-en-Bresse

1.62

1.26

Elan Chalon HC

+2.5

8.00

JL Bourg-en-Bresse HC

-2.5

-8.00

Point Line

165.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Elan Chalon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

Le Portel

L

83

84

6

9

L 1

81

91

Mar 21

H

Le Portel

W

89

75

6

8

W 2

87

81

Mar 16

H

Boulazac

W

80

68

5

8

W 1

75

74

Mar 13

A

Strasbourg

L

92

96

4

8

L 1

94

93

Mar 6

H

Cholet

W

84

79

4

7

W 1

83

78

Feb 5

A

Dijon

L

75

85

3

7

L 2

82

86

Jan 29

H

Le Mans

L

69

85

3

6

L 1

67

78

Jan 17

H

ASVEL

W

85

75

3

5

W 1

86

68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of JL Bourg-en-Bresse are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

Roanne

L

97

102

10

5

L 2

93

105

Mar 24

H

BCM Gravelines

L

67

84

10

4

L 1

68

87

Mar 16

H

Elan Bearnais

W

88

58

10

3

W 3

82

60

Mar 12

A

Le Mans

W

86

85

9

3

W 2

83

78

Mar 7

H

Nanterre

W

97

72

8

3

W 1

96

71

Feb 6

A

Chalons-Reims

L

103

108

7

3

L 1

95

109

Jan 30

H

Orleans Loiret

W

88

82

7

2

W 2

87

74

Jan 16

A

Elan Bearnais

W

83

76

6

2

W 1

77

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Elan Chalon and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by JL Bourg-en-Bresse.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by JL Bourg-en-Bresse and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Elan Chalon.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Elan Chalon (in the first graph) and by JL Bourg-en-Bresse in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Elan Chalon will expected to score 79 points and the JL Bourg-en-Bresse 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Elan Chalon

JL Bourg-en-Bresse

FG%

0.52

0.59

ASS

18.30

19.50

DRB

23.80

24.10

AST-TO

1.01

1.44

TRB

33.10

33.70

FTM

14.60

10.70

BL

2.40

2.30

FTA

19.70

13.70

PF-Fewer

20.50

18.20

ST

6.70

7.40

TO-Fewer

18.10

13.50

Ftper

0.74

0.78

ORBper

0.39

0.40

ORB

9.30

9.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Chalons-Reims vs Pau-Lacq-Orthez at 02 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chalons-Reims and Pau-Lacq-Orthez for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 02 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Chalons-Reims

1.53

1.44

Pau-Lacq-Orthez

2.6

3.28

Chalons-Reims HC

-4.5

-6.00

Pau-Lacq-Orthez HC

+4.5

6.00

Point Line

166.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Chalons-Reims are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

A

ASVEL

L

71

97

5

10

L 1

72

88

Mar 18

H

Le Portel

W

88

82

5

9

W 1

86

89

Mar 13

A

Nanterre

L

71

96

4

9

L 1

70

95

Mar 6

H

Limoges

W

74

72

4

8

W 3

77

77

Feb 6

H

JL Bourg

W

108

103

3

8

W 2

107

95

Jan 30

A

Elan Bearnais

W

97

86

2

8

W 1

90

88

Jan 23

H

Paris Levallois

L

73

87

1

8

L 4

80

89

Dec 19

A

BCM Gravelines

L

80

84

1

7

L 3

81

87

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Pau-Lacq-Orthez are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

H

Nanterre

W

86

79

4

12

W 1

85

78

Mar 20

H

Roanne

L

60

81

3

12

L 11

58

83

Mar 16

A

JL Bourg

L

58

88

3

11

L 10

58

81

Mar 13

H

Orleans Loiret

L

72

101

3

10

L 9

71

91

Mar 6

A

Monaco

L

95

102

3

9

L 8

104

100

Feb 6

A

Limoges

L

87

96

3

8

L 7

91

102

Jan 30

H

Chalons-Reims

L

86

97

3

7

L 6

79

98

Jan 16

H

JL Bourg

L

76

83

3

6

L 5

75

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Chalons-Reims and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Pau-Lacq-Orthez.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Pau-Lacq-Orthez and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Chalons-Reims.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Chalons-Reims (in the first graph) and by Pau-Lacq-Orthez in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Chalons-Reims will expected to score 83 points and the Pau-Lacq-Orthez 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Chalons-Reims

Pau-Lacq-Orthez

FG%

0.53

0.54

ASS

18.50

16.00

DRB

21.60

22.40

AST-TO

1.29

0.99

TRB

29.50

29.30

FTM

14.30

13.70

BL

2.10

1.50

FTA

20.20

17.40

PF-Fewer

18.20

21.70

ST

7.40

8.10

TO-Fewer

14.30

16.10

Ftper

0.71

0.79

ORBper

0.37

0.31

ORB

7.90

6.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Nanterre vs Boulazac Dordogne Pro at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nanterre and Boulazac Dordogne Pro for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nanterre

1.12

1.29

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

6.7

4.50

Nanterre HC

-12.5

-8.00

Boulazac Dordogne Pro HC

+12.5

8.00

Point Line

163.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nanterre are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

Elan Bearnais

L

79

86

5

9

L 3

74

88

Mar 23

A

ASVEL

L

92

96

5

8

L 2

93

87

Mar 16

H

Roanne

L

74

79

5

7

L 1

71

81

Mar 13

H

Chalons-Reims

W

96

71

5

6

W 1

88

72

Mar 7

A

JL Bourg

L

72

97

4

6

L 2

71

89

Feb 13

H

Dijon

L

77

86

4

5

L 1

84

88

Feb 6

A

Boulazac

W

96

74

4

4

W 1

90

81

Jan 16

A

Le Portel

L

75

78

3

4

L 3

73

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Boulazac Dordogne Pro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

H

Limoges

L

63

72

1

10

L 2

66

77

Mar 16

A

Elan Chalon

L

68

80

1

9

L 1

67

83

Mar 6

H

Roanne

W

82

72

1

8

W 1

79

74

Feb 6

H

Nanterre

L

74

96

0

8

L 7

73

95

Jan 29

A

BCM Gravelines

L

84

100

0

7

L 6

85

104

Jan 16

H

Dijon

L

76

86

0

6

L 5

83

88

Dec 26

H

Monaco

L

71

77

0

5

L 4

78

75

Dec 19

A

Paris Levallois

L

79

98

0

4

L 3

87

100

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nanterre and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Boulazac Dordogne Pro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Boulazac Dordogne Pro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nanterre.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nanterre (in the first graph) and by Boulazac Dordogne Pro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nanterre will expected to score 84 points and the Boulazac Dordogne Pro 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nanterre

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

FG%

0.53

0.51

ASS

13.70

15.30

DRB

21.10

20.70

AST-TO

1.25

0.96

TRB

30.60

28.90

FTM

14.30

16.40

BL

2.60

1.90

FTA

18.90

22.00

PF-Fewer

20.50

21.90

ST

6.90

6.50

TO-Fewer

11.00

15.90

Ftper

0.76

0.74

ORBper

0.45

0.40

ORB

9.50

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Monaco vs Orleans at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Orleans for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Monaco

1.13

2.17

Orleans

6.3

1.86

Monaco HC

-11.5

2.00

Orleans HC

+11.5

-2.00

Point Line

162.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 29

H

Cholet

L

76

97

11

2

L 1

75

96

Mar 20

A

Cholet

W

87

76

11

1

W 11

86

76

Mar 12

A

Le Portel

W

81

71

10

1

W 10

79

77

Mar 6

H

Elan Bearnais

W

102

95

9

1

W 9

95

98

Feb 12

A

Orleans Loiret

W

86

85

8

1

W 8

85

76

Jan 30

H

Le Portel

W

82

60

7

1

W 7

80

65

Dec 26

A

Boulazac

W

77

71

6

1

W 6

73

78

Dec 6

A

Elan Bearnais

W

90

86

5

1

W 5

84

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Orleans are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

Cholet

L

70

91

7

7

L 1

69

90

Mar 16

H

Dijon

W

74

69

7

6

W 3

81

70

Mar 13

A

Elan Bearnais

W

101

72

6

6

W 2

94

74

Mar 9

H

Roanne

W

108

100

5

6

W 1

104

103

Feb 12

H

Monaco

L

85

86

4

6

L 1

93

84

Feb 6

H

BCM Gravelines

W

104

69

4

5

W 1

105

72

Jan 30

A

JL Bourg

L

82

88

3

5

L 2

81

81

Dec 19

A

Le Portel

L

84

85

3

4

L 1

82

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Orleans.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Orleans and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Monaco (in the first graph) and by Orleans in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Monaco will expected to score 83 points and the Orleans 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Monaco

Orleans

FG%

0.52

0.59

ASS

16.90

20.10

DRB

21.20

23.00

AST-TO

1.33

1.36

TRB

32.40

30.50

FTM

16.60

17.30

BL

2.60

1.90

FTA

23.20

22.90

PF-Fewer

21.50

18.60

ST

10.20

8.50

TO-Fewer

12.70

14.80

Ftper

0.72

0.76

ORBper

0.53

0.33

ORB

11.20

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gravelines vs Metropolitans 92 at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gravelines and Metropolitans 92 for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gravelines

2.52

2.76

Metropolitans 92

1.55

1.57

Gravelines HC

+3.5

4.50

Metropolitans 92 HC

-3.5

-4.50

Point Line

154.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gravelines are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 30

A

Dijon

L

73

83

7

8

L 1

80

84

Mar 24

A

JL Bourg

W

84

67

7

7

W 1

83

62

Mar 18

H

Strasbourg

L

78

81

6

7

L 1

79

79

Mar 13

A

Roanne

W

89

76

6

6

W 2

86

78

Mar 5