2021 04 02 Greek Basket League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Kolossos Rhodes vs Aris at 03 April 2021
Mesologgi BC vs Larissa BC at 03 April 2021
AEK Athens vs GS Lavrio at 03 April 2021
Ionikos Nikaias vs PAOK at 03 April 2021
Peristeri vs Promitheas at 04 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Kolossos Rhodes vs Aris at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Kolossos Rhodes and Aris for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Kolossos Rhodes	1.29	2.99
Aris	3.75	1.50
Kolossos Rhodes HC	-7.5	5.00
Aris HC	+7.5	-5.00
Point Line	151.5	151.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 28	A	P.A.O.K.	L	74	82	6	12	L 4	72	80
Mar 14	A	Larisa	L	73	82	6	11	L 3	69	84
Mar 10	A	Lavrio B.C.	L	77	83	6	10	L 2	79	79
Mar 7	H	Panathinaikos	L	82	95	6	9	L 1	89	82
Feb 6	H	Iraklis B.C.	W	84	61	6	8	W 1	84	64
Jan 30	A	Messolonghi	L	77	87	5	8	L 1	72	92
Jan 23	H	Peristeri	W	80	65	5	7	W 2	82	68
Jan 9	H	Ionikos Nikaias	W	94	74	4	7	W 1	89	74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 31	A	Promitheas Patras	L	69	90	6	13	L 3	70	95
Mar 27	H	AEK Athens	L	68	73	6	12	L 2	73	68
Mar 20	H	P.A.O.K.	L	71	77	6	11	L 1	69	76
Mar 10	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	76	54	6	10	W 2	76	57
Mar 6	H	Larisa	W	70	52	5	10	W 1	66	54
Feb 28	A	Panathinaikos	L	72	94	4	10	L 2	78	82
Feb 6	H	Lavrio B.C.	L	89	94	4	9	L 1	91	89
Jan 23	H	Messolonghi	W	77	48	4	8	W 1	72	51

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Kolossos Rhodes (in the first graph) and by Aris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Kolossos Rhodes will expected to score 77 points and the Aris 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Kolossos Rhodes	Aris
FG%	0.54	0.50
ASS	17.90	13.60
DRB	24.90	21.70
AST-TO	1.24	0.96
TRB	31.30	31.40
FTM	13.10	16.60
BL	1.40	1.60
FTA	17.90	22.60
PF-Fewer	23.30	22.00
ST	6.00	7.90
TO-Fewer	14.40	14.10
Ftper	0.73	0.73
ORBper	0.26	0.45
ORB	6.40	9.70

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Mesologgi BC vs Larissa BC at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mesologgi BC and Larissa BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Mesologgi BC	1.4	1.93
Larissa BC	3.05	2.08
Mesologgi BC HC	-5.5	-1.50
Larissa BC HC	+5.5	1.50
Point Line	155.5	154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mesologgi BC are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 27	A	Panathinaikos	L	68	102	4	15	L 6	73	88
Mar 20	H	Lavrio B.C.	L	75	79	4	14	L 5	77	75
Mar 14	A	Iraklis B.C.	L	78	100	4	13	L 4	78	105
Mar 6	A	AEK Athens	L	76	98	4	12	L 3	81	92
Feb 27	H	Peristeri	L	63	70	4	11	L 2	64	73
Feb 6	A	Ionikos Nikaias	L	85	100	4	10	L 1	81	100
Jan 30	H	Kolossos Rodou	W	87	77	4	9	W 1	87	77
Jan 23	A	Aris	L	48	77	3	9	L 9	48	80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 28	H	Peristeri	L	78	98	5	14	L 2	80	102
Mar 21	A	Ionikos Nikaias	L	76	83	5	13	L 1	72	83
Mar 14	H	Kolossos Rodou	W	82	73	5	12	W 1	82	73
Mar 6	A	Aris	L	52	70	4	12	L 3	52	72
Feb 28	H	P.A.O.K.	L	88	91	4	11	L 2	85	89
Feb 6	A	Promitheas Patras	L	63	81	4	10	L 1	64	86
Jan 30	H	AEK Athens	W	76	75	4	9	W 1	81	70
Jan 24	H	Panathinaikos	L	89	98	3	9	L 2	96	85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mesologgi BC and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mesologgi BC.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mesologgi BC (in the first graph) and by Larissa BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mesologgi BC will expected to score 77 points and the Larissa BC 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Var	Mesologgi BC	Larissa BC
FG%	0.52	0.54
ASS	16.20	14.30
DRB	22.50	22.10
AST-TO	1.12	0.91
TRB	28.90	30.40
FTM	13.90	13.80
BL	1.50	1.70
FTA	19.70	18.20
PF-Fewer	20.30	22.40
ST	5.60	6.70
TO-Fewer	14.50	15.70
Ftper	0.71	0.76
ORBper	0.28	0.38
ORB	6.40	8.40

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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AEK Athens vs GS Lavrio at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and GS Lavrio for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
AEK Athens	1.35	1.85
GS Lavrio	3.35	2.18
AEK Athens HC	-6.5	-2.00
GS Lavrio HC	+6.5	2.00
Point Line	157.5	152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 27	A	Aris	W	73	68	14	4	W 5	73	70
Mar 20	H	Iraklis B.C.	W	100	97	13	4	W 4	100	102
Mar 13	A	P.A.O.K.	W	87	85	12	4	W 3	84	83
Mar 6	H	Messolonghi	W	98	76	11	4	W 2	91	80
Feb 6	H	Peristeri	W	91	59	10	4	W 1	93	62
Jan 30	A	Larisa	L	75	76	9	4	L 1	71	78
Jan 27	H	P.A.O.K.	W	76	56	9	3	W 2	74	55
Jan 23	H	Ionikos Nikaias	W	81	74	8	3	W 1	77	74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 20	A	Messolonghi	W	79	75	14	4	W 6	74	79
Mar 14	H	Peristeri	W	88	71	13	4	W 5	90	74
Mar 10	H	Kolossos Rodou	W	83	77	12	4	W 4	83	77
Mar 7	A	Ionikos Nikaias	W	89	88	11	4	W 3	84	88
Feb 6	A	Aris	W	94	89	10	4	W 2	94	92
Jan 30	H	P.A.O.K.	W	84	77	9	4	W 1	81	76
Jan 23	A	Promitheas Patras	L	88	90	8	4	L 1	89	95
Jan 20	H	Promitheas Patras	W	75	72	8	3	W 8	76	76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by AEK Athens (in the first graph) and by GS Lavrio in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, AEK Athens will expected to score 79 points and the GS Lavrio 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Var	AEK Athens	GS Lavrio
FG%	0.54	0.54
ASS	17.40	17.70
DRB	22.40	22.20
AST-TO	1.38	1.39
TRB	32.40	30.20
FTM	15.50	15.40
BL	3.30	2.50
FTA	21.00	21.90
PF-Fewer	22.90	22.40
ST	6.80	7.70
TO-Fewer	12.60	12.70
Ftper	0.74	0.70
ORBper	0.45	0.36
ORB	10.00	8.10

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Ionikos Nikaias vs PAOK at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ionikos Nikaias and PAOK for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Ionikos Nikaias	2.1	2.06
PAOK	1.78	1.94
Ionikos Nikaias HC	+1.5	1.50
PAOK HC	-1.5	-1.50
Point Line	160.5	157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 27	A	Promitheas Patras	L	72	82	7	12	L 1	73	86
Mar 21	H	Larisa	W	83	76	7	11	W 1	79	78
Mar 13	A	Panathinaikos	L	74	98	6	11	L 2	80	85
Mar 7	H	Lavrio B.C.	L	88	89	6	10	L 1	90	84
Feb 28	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	78	75	6	9	W 2	78	79
Feb 6	H	Messolonghi	W	100	85	5	9	W 1	93	90
Jan 30	A	Peristeri	L	70	86	4	9	L 3	71	90
Jan 23	A	AEK Athens	L	74	81	4	8	L 2	79	76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 28	H	Kolossos Rodou	W	82	74	10	8	W 2	82	74
Mar 20	A	Aris	W	77	71	9	8	W 1	77	74
Mar 13	H	AEK Athens	L	85	87	8	8	L 1	91	82
Mar 6	H	Promitheas Patras	W	81	78	8	7	W 2	82	82
Feb 28	A	Larisa	W	91	88	7	7	W 1	86	90
Jan 30	A	Lavrio B.C.	L	77	84	6	7	L 2	79	80
Jan 27	A	AEK Athens	L	56	76	6	6	L 1	60	71
Jan 23	H	Iraklis B.C.	W	79	72	6	5	W 2	79	76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ionikos Nikaias (in the first graph) and by PAOK in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ionikos Nikaias will expected to score 79 points and the PAOK 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Var	Ionikos Nikaias	PAOK
FG%	0.51	0.54
ASS	15.30	14.50
DRB	21.90	22.70
AST-TO	1.15	1.04
TRB	30.60	30.30
FTM	13.10	14.70
BL	1.60	2.00
FTA	17.30	19.30
PF-Fewer	20.60	23.10
ST	7.20	7.60
TO-Fewer	13.30	14.00
Ftper	0.76	0.76
ORBper	0.40	0.34
ORB	8.70	7.70

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Peristeri vs Promitheas at 04 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peristeri and Promitheas for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 04 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Peristeri	2.02	2.29
Promitheas	1.85	1.77
Peristeri HC	+1.5	2.50
Promitheas HC	-1.5	-2.50
Point Line	152.5	146.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 28	A	Larisa	W	98	78	10	9	W 1	93	80
Mar 22	H	Panathinaikos	L	68	74	9	9	L 3	73	64
Mar 14	A	Lavrio B.C.	L	71	88	9	8	L 2	73	84
Mar 6	H	Iraklis B.C.	L	70	79	9	7	L 1