2021 04 02 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Vanoli Cremona vs Reggiana at 03 April 2021
Aquila Basket Trento vs Reyer Venezia at 03 April 2021
Dinamo Sassari vs Virtus Bologna at 03 April 2021
Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Universo Treviso at 03 April 2021
Cantu vs Brindisi at 03 April 2021
Fortitudo Bologna vs Brescia at 03 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Vanoli Cremona vs Reggiana at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vanoli Cremona and Reggiana for Serie A, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Vanoli Cremona

1.72

1.24

Reggiana

2.2

5.10

Vanoli Cremona HC

-2.5

-8.50

Reggiana HC

+2.5

8.50

Point Line

162.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

84

95

8

15

L 3

82

83

Mar 21

H

Universo Treviso

L

85

86

8

14

L 2

79

82

Mar 14

A

Red October Cantu

L

85

92

8

13

L 1

84

94

Mar 7

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

100

78

8

12

W 2

100

77

Feb 28

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

95

87

7

12

W 1

98

91

Feb 7

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

105

110

6

12

L 5

100

109

Jan 30

H

Virtus Bologna

L

75

88

6

11

L 4

79

84

Jan 24

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

84

88

6

10

L 3

90

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reggiana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 29

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

91

79

8

15

W 1

91

78

Mar 19

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

68

71

7

15

L 6

68

74

Mar 13

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

70

96

7

14

L 5

71

96

Mar 7

A

Universo Treviso

L

72

78

7

13

L 4

67

74

Feb 28

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

79

89

7

12

L 3

77

88

Feb 7

H

Virtus Bologna

L

62

89

7

11

L 2

66

85

Feb 1

A

Enel Brindisi

L

70

79

7

10

L 1

73

74

Jan 23

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

83

74

7

9

W 1

85

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reggiana.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reggiana and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Vanoli Cremona (in the first graph) and by Reggiana in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Vanoli Cremona will expected to score 83 points and the Reggiana 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Vanoli Cremona

Reggiana

FG%

0.52

0.50

ASS

17.50

15.30

DRB

26.00

24.00

AST-TO

1.59

1.15

TRB

34.30

32.00

FTM

15.40

14.80

BL

2.50

2.00

FTA

20.40

19.10

PF-Fewer

19.80

20.20

ST

6.10

6.30

TO-Fewer

11.00

13.30

Ftper

0.76

0.78

ORBper

0.32

0.33

ORB

8.20

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Aquila Basket Trento vs Reyer Venezia at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aquila Basket Trento and Reyer Venezia for Serie A, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aquila Basket Trento

2.3

2.16

Reyer Venezia

1.65

1.86

Aquila Basket Trento HC

+2.5

2.00

Reyer Venezia HC

-2.5

-2.00

Point Line

152.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

70

88

8

14

L 1

67

87

Mar 20

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

91

67

8

13

W 2

89

66

Mar 7

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

61

60

7

13

W 1

67

56

Feb 28

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

87

95

6

13

L 8

81

89

Feb 7

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

70

81

6

12

L 7

70

80

Jan 31

H

Fortitudo Bologna

L

64

78

6

11

L 6

64

81

Jan 23

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

74

83

6

10

L 5

75

88

Jan 17

H

Universo Treviso

L

76

82

6

9

L 4

71

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

69

63

15

8

W 2

76

59

Mar 21

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

87

69

14

8

W 1

89

69

Mar 6

A

Virtus Bologna

L

72

77

13

8

L 2

76

73

Feb 27

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

88

96

13

7

L 1

86

84

Feb 7

H

Red October Cantu

W

80

75

13

6

W 6

79

77

Jan 31

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

78

65

12

6

W 5

78

64

Jan 24

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

88

84

11

6

W 4

82

79

Jan 17

A

Enel Brindisi

W

89

77

10

6

W 3

93

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aquila Basket Trento and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reyer Venezia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reyer Venezia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aquila Basket Trento.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aquila Basket Trento (in the first graph) and by Reyer Venezia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aquila Basket Trento will expected to score 76 points and the Reyer Venezia 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aquila Basket Trento

Reyer Venezia

FG%

0.50

0.54

ASS

14.90

17.40

DRB

22.80

24.70

AST-TO

1.32

1.26

TRB

31.40

33.00

FTM

11.50

11.80

BL

1.80

2.60

FTA

16.00

17.50

PF-Fewer

20.00

22.20

ST

7.70

6.90

TO-Fewer

11.30

13.80

Ftper

0.72

0.67

ORBper

0.38

0.34

ORB

8.60

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Dinamo Sassari vs Virtus Bologna at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dinamo Sassari and Virtus Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Dinamo Sassari

2.55

2.32

Virtus Bologna

1.55

1.76

Dinamo Sassari HC

+3.5

2.50

Virtus Bologna HC

-3.5

-2.50

Point Line

171.5

168.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dinamo Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

84

15

6

W 1

88

79

Mar 6

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

74

89

14

6

L 1

71

88

Feb 27

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

96

88

14

5

W 8

103

88

Feb 6

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

89

79

13

5

W 7

89

82

Jan 24

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

103

82

12

5

W 6

105

82

Jan 17

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

99

74

11

5

W 5

99

73

Jan 10

H

Red October Cantu

W

98

92

10

5

W 4

97

94

Jan 3

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

85

78

9

5

W 3

86

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

81

73

16

7

W 2

81

76

Mar 20

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

75

70

15

7

W 1

75

69

Mar 13

A

Enel Brindisi

L

85

91

14

7

L 1

89

85

Mar 6

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

77

72

14

6

W 4

83

72

Feb 27

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

76

13

6

W 3

81

75

Feb 7

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

62

12

6

W 2

90

66

Jan 30

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

88

75

11

6

W 1

82

71

Jan 23

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

89

90

10

6

L 1

87

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dinamo Sassari and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dinamo Sassari.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Dinamo Sassari (in the first graph) and by Virtus Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Dinamo Sassari will expected to score 84 points and the Virtus Bologna 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Dinamo Sassari

Virtus Bologna

FG%

0.59

0.55

ASS

19.30

22.30

DRB

25.60

26.30

AST-TO

1.34

1.64

TRB

33.70

35.10

FTM

17.00

14.00

BL

2.00

2.60

FTA

22.10

18.60

PF-Fewer

18.20

20.30

ST

7.90

7.70

TO-Fewer

14.40

13.60

Ftper

0.77

0.75

ORBper

0.32

0.34

ORB

8.10

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Universo Treviso at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Victoria Libertas Pesaro and Universo Treviso for Serie A, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

1.72

2.77

Universo Treviso

2.2

1.57

Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC

-2.5

4.50

Universo Treviso HC

+2.5

-4.50

Point Line

165.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 29

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

79

91

10

13

L 4

80

97

Mar 20

H

Virtus Bologna

L

70

75

10

12

L 3

74

72

Mar 14

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

68

81

10

11

L 2

65

80

Mar 7

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

78

100

10

10

L 1

72

94

Feb 7

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

81

70

10

9

W 1

83

73

Jan 31

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

65

78

9

9

L 1

70

78

Jan 24

H

Red October Cantu

W

107

83

9

8

W 1

106

85

Jan 17

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

74

99

8

8

L 1

72

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Universo Treviso are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

95

76

12

11

W 4

97

76

Mar 21

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

86

85

11

11

W 3

80

80

Mar 14

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

84

78

10

11

W 2

84

81

Mar 7

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

78

72

9

11

W 1

79

77

Feb 28

A

Red October Cantu

L

76

83

8

11

L 2

76

85

Feb 7

H

Enel Brindisi

L

90

108

8

10

L 1

94

101

Jan 31

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

94

91

8

9

W 1

92

90

Jan 24

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

77

82

7

9

L 1

84

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Universo Treviso.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Universo Treviso and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro (in the first graph) and by Universo Treviso in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Victoria Libertas Pesaro will expected to score 84 points and the Universo Treviso 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

Universo Treviso

FG%

0.52

0.53

ASS

16.00

16.80

DRB

23.70

22.10

AST-TO

1.50

1.50

TRB

33.50

31.10

FTM

12.90

15.10

BL

1.00

1.90

FTA

17.30

18.80

PF-Fewer

21.00

21.00

ST

6.30

7.30

TO-Fewer

10.70

11.20

Ftper

0.75

0.80

ORBper

0.41

0.41

ORB

9.80

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Cantu vs Brindisi at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cantu and Brindisi for Serie A, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cantu

3.65

3.51

Brindisi

1.3

1.40

Cantu HC

+7.5

6.50

Brindisi HC

-7.5

-6.50

Point Line

165.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cantu are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

57

70

8

15

L 1

63

65

Mar 14

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

92

85

8

14

W 1

85

80

Mar 7

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

79

82

7

14

L 1

80

82

Feb 28

H

Universo Treviso

W

83