2021 04 02 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Levante vs Huesca at 02 April 2021
Granada vs Villarreal at 03 April 2021
Osasuna vs Getafe at 03 April 2021
Real Madrid vs Eibar at 03 April 2021
Alaves vs Celta at 04 April 2021
Cadiz vs Valencia at 04 April 2021
Elche vs Betis at 04 April 2021
Sevilla vs Ath Madrid at 04 April 2021
Barcelona vs Valladolid at 05 April 2021


Levante vs Huesca at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Levante and Huesca for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Levante

2.40

2.13

5.3

Draw

3.36

3.92

-4.3

Huesca

3.01

3.62

-5.6

Over 2.5

2.03

1.99

1.0

Under 2.5

1.81

2.01

-5.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante, Over 2.5 (5.3 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Levante in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance at home.
Levante, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Mar

Betis

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Valencia

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Sociedad

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Ath Madrid

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Ath Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Osasuna

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Granada

H

2

2

D

O

G


Huesca in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance as a guest.
Huesca, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Osasuna

H

0

0

D

U

N

15 Mar

Barcelona

A

1

4

L

O

G

07 Mar

Celta

H

3

4

L

O

G

27 Feb

Eibar

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Granada

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Real Madrid

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Jan

Valladolid

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Levante is 0.032 and for the Huesca is -0.348.
The home dynamic for the Levante is 0.208 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huesca is -0.245.
The offensive ability for the Levante is 0.142 and for the Huesca is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Levante is -0.227 and for the Huesca is -0.607.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Huesca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Levante

23%

28%

29%

20%

Huesca

36%

31%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 1.31 goals and Huesca to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.45 goals and Huesca to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Levante to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.91

1

5.81

2-3

2.05

2

4.17

4+

3.92

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.91

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56

3.05

3.56

2-3 goals

1.82

5.67

3.64

4+ goals

2.52

3.04

3.64

Ov 1.5

2.01

4.37

3.64

Un 1.5

2.56

3.05

3.56

Ov 2.5

1.91

5.99

3.22

Un 2.5

2.41

2.92

4.13

Ov 3.5

2.52

3.04

3.64

Un 3.5

2.02

4.38

3.61

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.88

3.85

No Goal

1.84

6.07

3.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

4.80

3.17

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

6.07

3.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Granada vs Villarreal at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Granada and Villarreal for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Granada

3.74

2.40

14.9

Draw

3.20

3.66

-3.9

Villarreal

2.14

3.22

-15.7

Over 2.5

2.15

2.11

0.9

Under 2.5

1.73

1.90

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Granada, Over 2.5 (14.9 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Granada in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Granada in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Granada’s performance at home.
Granada, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 64.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Granada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Valencia

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Sociedad

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Ath Bilbao

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Elche

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Huesca

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Ath Madrid

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Levante

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Celta

H

0

0

D

U

N


Villarreal in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance as a guest.
Villarreal, as a guest, had 4 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Cadiz

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Eibar

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Mar

Valencia

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Ath Madrid

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Ath Bilbao

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Betis

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Elche

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Sociedad

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Granada is -0.262 and for the Villarreal is -0.089.
The home dynamic for the Granada is 0.368 and the dynamic as a guest for the Villarreal is 0.261.
The offensive ability for the Granada is 1 and for the Villarreal is 0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Granada is -0.571 and for the Villarreal is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Granada and the red line for guest team, Villarreal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Granada

23%

39%

18%

20%

Villarreal

32%

35%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Granada to score 0.94 goals and Villarreal to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the guest team Villarreal to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Granada to score 1.33 goals and Villarreal to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.53

1

4.81

2-3

2.10

2

4.13

4+

4.17

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.53

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.25

3.77

3.45

2-3 goals

2.63

3.47

3.01

4+ goals

2.22

3.93

3.38

Ov 1.5

2.48

3.62

3.13

Un 1.5

2.25

3.77

3.45

Ov 2.5

2.04

7.77

2.62

Un 2.5

2.87

2.48

4.04

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.93

3.38

Un 3.5

2.47

3.58

3.16

Goal-Goal

3.06

2.63

3.42

No Goal

1.96

6.39

3.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

6.28

2.52

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

6.39

2.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Osasuna vs Getafe at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Osasuna and Getafe for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Osasuna

2.54

1.90

13.3

Draw

2.85

3.94

-9.7

Getafe

3.28

4.50

-8.3

Over 2.5

2.92

1.94

17.3

Under 2.5

1.39

2.06

-23.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Osasuna, Over 2.5 (13.3 %, 17.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Osasuna in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Osasuna in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance at home.
Osasuna, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Huesca

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Valladolid

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Barcelona

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Alaves

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Feb

Sevilla

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Levante

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Eibar

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Feb

Betis

A

0

1

L

U

N


Getafe in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Getafe in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance as a guest.
Getafe, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 23.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Getafe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Elche

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Ath Madrid

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Valladolid

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Valencia

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Feb

Betis

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Sociedad

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Sevilla

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Osasuna is 0.048 and for the Getafe is -0.296.
The home dynamic for the Osasuna is 0.038 and the dynamic as a guest for the Getafe is -0.311.
The offensive ability for the Osasuna is -0.631 and for the Getafe is -0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Osasuna is 0.571 and for the Getafe is -0.311.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Osasuna and the red line for guest team, Getafe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Osasuna

19%

32%

22%

28%

Getafe

34%

41%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.02 goals and Getafe to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.87 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.58 goals and Getafe to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Osasuna to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.02

1

5.41

2-3

2.05

2

4.24

4+

3.79

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.71

Un 1.5

4.02

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.79

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.89

3.28

2-3 goals

1.89

3.75

4.88

4+ goals

1.67

4.40

5.74

Ov 1.5

1.81

3.96

5.15

Un 1.5

2.28

3.89

3.28

Ov 2.5

1.51

8.60

4.49

Un 2.5

2.64

2.50

4.53

Ov 3.5

1.67

4.40

5.74

Un 3.5

2.01

3.80

4.19

Goal-Goal

2.17

2.82

5.41

No Goal

1.67

7.27

3.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.64

6.77

4.10

NG+Un 2.5

1.93

7.27

3.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Real Madrid vs Eibar at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Eibar for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Real Madrid

1.33

1.86

-21.4

Draw

5.25

4.12

5.2

Eibar

9.46

4.57

11.3

Over 2.5

1.72

1.99

-7.9

Under 2.5

2.16

2.01

3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Eibar, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 11.3 %, 3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Real Madrid in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance at home.
Real Madrid, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 71.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Celta

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Elche

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Mar

Sociedad

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Valladolid

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Valencia

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Getafe

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Huesca

A

2

1

W

O

G


Eibar in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eibar in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance as a guest.
Eibar, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Ath Bilbao

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Villarreal

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Cadiz

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Huesca

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Elche

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Osasuna

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Sevilla

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Real Madrid is 0.786 and for the Eibar is -0.504.
The home dynamic for the Real Madrid is 0.604 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eibar is -0.029.
The offensive ability for the Real Madrid is 1 and for the Eibar is 0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Real Madrid is -0.339 and for the Eibar is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Real Madrid and the red line for guest team, Eibar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Real Madrid

20%

28%

28%

24%

Eibar

41%

32%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 2.25 goals and Eibar to score 0.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 1.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.57 goals and Eibar to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.85

1

5.62

2-3

2.02

2

4.20

4+

4.08

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.08

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-