2021 04 02 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lincoln vs Milton Keynes Dons at 02 April 2021
Swindon vs Blackpool at 02 April 2021
Sunderland vs Oxford at 02 April 2021
Portsmouth vs Rochdale at 02 April 2021
Northampton vs Shrewsbury at 02 April 2021
Ipswich vs Bristol Rvs at 02 April 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Peterboro at 02 April 2021
Doncaster vs Charlton at 02 April 2021
Crewe vs Hull at 02 April 2021
Accrington vs Burton at 02 April 2021
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon at 02 April 2021


Lincoln vs Milton Keynes Dons at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lincoln and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lincoln

2.28

2.29

-0.2

Draw

3.34

3.68

-2.8

Milton Keynes Dons

3.07

3.42

-3.3

Over 2.5

1.96

2.12

-3.9

Under 2.5

1.85

1.89

-1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lincoln in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance at home.
Lincoln, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 47.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Mar

Oxford

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Gillingham

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Rochdale

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Ipswich

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Crewe

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Plymouth

A

3

4

L

O

G


Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance as a guest.
Milton Keynes Dons, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 40.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Doncaster

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Burton

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Plymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Accrington

H

3

2

W

O

G

09 Mar

Blackpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Wigan

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Gillingham

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Oxford

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Lincoln is -0.349 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.43.
The home dynamic for the Lincoln is 0.094 and the dynamic as a guest for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.021.
The offensive ability for the Lincoln is 0.597 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.33.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lincoln is -0.682 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.607.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lincoln and the red line for guest team, Milton Keynes Dons.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lincoln

23%

35%

25%

17%

Milton Keynes Dons

33%

36%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.37 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.36 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.68

1

5.08

2-3

2.01

2

3.92

4+

4.37

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.68

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.63

3.32

2-3 goals

2.22

3.95

3.36

4+ goals

2.34

3.27

3.75

Ov 1.5

2.26

3.71

3.48

Un 1.5

2.37

3.63

3.32

Ov 2.5

1.95

6.74

2.95

Un 2.5

2.70

2.62

4.02

Ov 3.5

2.34

3.27

3.75

Un 3.5

2.27

3.83

3.35

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.65

3.79

No Goal

1.91

6.40

3.12

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

5.61

2.87

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.40

3.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swindon vs Blackpool at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Blackpool for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

3.76

2.79

9.2

Draw

3.30

3.83

-4.2

Blackpool

2.02

2.62

-11.3

Over 2.5

2.13

1.93

4.9

Under 2.5

1.71

2.07

-10.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon, Over 2.5 (9.2 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 11 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 38.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Fleetwood Town

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Gillingham

H

1

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Oxford

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Accrington

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Sunderland

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Lincoln

A

2

2

D

O

G


Blackpool in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance as a guest.
Blackpool, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Plymouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Mar

Peterboro

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Oxford

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Crewe

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Swindon is -0.183 and for the Blackpool is 0.496.
The home dynamic for the Swindon is -0.245 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackpool is -0.079.
The offensive ability for the Swindon is 0.682 and for the Blackpool is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swindon is -0.116 and for the Blackpool is -0.089.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Blackpool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

30%

28%

25%

17%

Blackpool

23%

38%

25%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 0.91 goals and Blackpool to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the guest team Blackpool to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.29 goals and Blackpool to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.07

1

5.65

2-3

2.07

2

4.24

4+

3.69

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.07

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.69

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.84

3.57

2.18

2-3 goals

2.56

4.55

2.56

4+ goals

2.56

3.15

3.43

Ov 1.5

2.56

3.92

2.82

Un 1.5

3.84

3.57

2.18

Ov 2.5

2.17

6.01

2.68

Un 2.5

4.02

2.75

2.58

Ov 3.5

2.56

3.15

3.43

Un 3.5

2.89

4.16

2.42

Goal-Goal

2.71

2.81

3.64

No Goal

2.89

6.67

1.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

5.03

2.93

NG+Un 2.5

3.13

6.67

2.01


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sunderland vs Oxford at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Oxford for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.99

2.05

-1.5

Draw

3.24

3.80

-4.5

Oxford

3.97

4.00

-0.2

Over 2.5

2.21

2.13

1.7

Under 2.5

1.66

1.89

-7.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Lincoln

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Accrington

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Portsmouth

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Rochdale

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Swindon

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Crewe

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Fleetwood Town

H

2

0

W

U

N


Oxford in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance as a guest.
Oxford, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Mar

Lincoln

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Northampton

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Blackpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Doncaster

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Mar

Swindon

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Charlton

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Peterboro

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Sunderland is 0.944 and for the Oxford is -0.015.
The home dynamic for the Sunderland is -0.17 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oxford is 0.145.
The offensive ability for the Sunderland is 1 and for the Oxford is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sunderland is 0.888 and for the Oxford is -0.681.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

20%

35%

27%

18%

Oxford

37%

35%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.4 goals and Oxford to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.44 goals and Oxford to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.68

1

5.03

2-3

1.99

2

3.88

4+

4.42

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.68

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.11

3.73

3.89

2-3 goals

1.93

4.06

4.23

4+ goals

2.28

3.37

3.77

Ov 1.5

2.03

3.82

4.07

Un 1.5

2.11

3.73

3.89

Ov 2.5

1.80

7.03

3.29

Un 2.5

2.33

2.69

5.00

Ov 3.5

2.28

3.37

3.77

Un 3.5

1.99

3.93

4.10

Goal-Goal

2.63

2.66

4.10

No Goal

1.67

6.75

3.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.73

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

1.79

6.75

3.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Portsmouth vs Rochdale at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portsmouth

1.57

2.21

-18.4

Draw

3.85

3.75

0.7

Rochdale

5.94

3.55

11.3

Over 2.5

1.89

2.08

-4.8

Under 2.5

1.91

1.93

-0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rochdale (0.7 %, 11.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portsmouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance at home.
Portsmouth, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 45.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Shrewsbury

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Peterboro

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Northampton

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 Mar

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Gillingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Oxford

A

1

0

W

U

N


Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Peterboro

H

3

3

D

O

G

13 Mar

Lincoln

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Shrewsbury

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Sunderland

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Burton

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Northampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Plymouth

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Portsmouth is -0.183 and for the Rochdale is -0.43.
The home dynamic for the Portsmouth is 0.198 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rochdale is 0.021.
The offensive ability for the Portsmouth is 0.227 and for the Rochdale is -0.452.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Portsmouth is -1 and for the Rochdale is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portsmouth and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portsmouth

22%

34%

26%

18%

Rochdale

33%

36%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.84 goals and Rochdale to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.39 goals and Rochdale to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.75

1

5.21

2-3

2.01

2

3.97

4+

4.24

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.75

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

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