# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Cheltenham vs Tranmere at 02 April 2021**** Walsall vs Harrogate at 02 April 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town at 02 April 2021**** Salford vs Grimsby at 02 April 2021**** Port Vale vs Exeter at 02 April 2021**** Cambridge vs Morecambe at 02 April 2021**** Bradford vs Forest Green at 02 April 2021**** Bolton vs Colchester at 02 April 2021**** Barrow vs Newport County at 02 April 2021**** Oldham vs Stevenage at 02 April 2021**** Mansfield vs Leyton Orient at 02 April 2021**** Southend vs Carlisle at 03 April 2021**

###
Cheltenham vs Tranmere at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cheltenham** and **Tranmere** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cheltenham |
2.05 |
2.52 |
-9.1 |

Draw |
3.28 |
3.65 |
-3.1 |

Tranmere |
3.62 |
3.04 |
5.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.23 |
2.16 |
1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.87 |
-7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tranmere, Over 2.5 (5.3 %, 1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** at home**.

Cheltenham,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Salford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Southend |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Scunthorpe |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** as a guest**.

Tranmere,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Southend |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Cheltenham** is **0.032** and for the **Tranmere** is **0.185.**

The home dynamic for the **Cheltenham** is **0.16** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Tranmere** is **0.245.**

The offensive ability for the **Cheltenham** is **0.142** and for the **Tranmere** is **0.304.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cheltenham** is **-0.202** and for the **Tranmere** is **-0.385.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cheltenham** and the red line for guest team, **Tranmere. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cheltenham |
27% |
34% |
25% |
15% |

Tranmere |
31% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Tranmere** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Tranmere** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.76 |
3.40 |
2.91 |

2-3 goals |
2.33 |
4.12 |
3.05 |

4+ goals |
2.71 |
3.12 |
3.21 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.74 |
3.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.40 |
2.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.44 |
2.67 |

Un 2.5 |
3.00 |
2.65 |
3.46 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.71 |
3.12 |
3.21 |

Un 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.82 |
3.00 |

Goal-Goal |
2.93 |
2.64 |
3.57 |

No Goal |
2.21 |
5.95 |
2.64 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.38 |
2.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.95 |
2.69 |

####
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###
Walsall vs Harrogate at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Walsall** and **Harrogate** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Walsall |
3.44 |
2.69 |
8.1 |

Draw |
3.14 |
3.61 |
-4.1 |

Harrogate |
2.37 |
2.86 |
-7.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.25 |
4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.80 |
-8.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Walsall, Over 2.5 (8.1 %, 4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** at home**.

Walsall,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** as a guest**.

Harrogate,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 45.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Mar |
Southend |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Walsall** is **-0.421** and for the **Harrogate** is **-0.407.**

The home dynamic for the **Walsall** is **0.113** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Harrogate** is **0.27.**

The offensive ability for the **Walsall** is **-0.09** and for the **Harrogate** is **-0.243.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Walsall** is **-0.571** and for the **Harrogate** is **-0.407.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Walsall** and the red line for guest team, **Harrogate. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Walsall |
30% |
33% |
24% |
13% |

Harrogate |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.11** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.99 |
0-1 |
3.34 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.99 |
3.29 |
2.77 |

2-3 goals |
2.46 |
4.16 |
2.84 |

4+ goals |
2.84 |
3.13 |
3.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.79 |
2.90 |

Un 1.5 |
2.99 |
3.29 |
2.77 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.63 |
2.51 |

Un 2.5 |
3.20 |
2.66 |
3.21 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.84 |
3.13 |
3.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.63 |
3.78 |
2.81 |

Goal-Goal |
3.02 |
2.63 |
3.47 |

No Goal |
2.41 |
5.65 |
2.45 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
5.49 |
2.63 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
5.65 |
2.53 |

####
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###
Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Scunthorpe** and **Crawley Town** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Scunthorpe |
2.41 |
2.44 |
-0.5 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.61 |
-3.5 |

Crawley Town |
2.97 |
3.18 |
-2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.21 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.83 |
-4.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** at home**.

Scunthorpe,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Mar |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Mar |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Crawley Town,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Salford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.127** and for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.274.**

The home dynamic for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.283** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crawley Town** is **0.129.**

The offensive ability for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.657** and for the **Crawley Town** is **0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.545** and for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.43.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Scunthorpe** and the red line for guest team, **Crawley Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Scunthorpe |
26% |
35% |
23% |
15% |

Crawley Town |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.59 |
3.49 |
3.05 |

2-3 goals |
2.35 |
3.83 |
3.19 |

4+ goals |
2.47 |
3.29 |
3.44 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.65 |
3.26 |

Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.49 |
3.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.86 |
2.76 |

Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.58 |
3.68 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.29 |
3.44 |

Un 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.70 |
3.14 |

Goal-Goal |
2.90 |
2.59 |
3.71 |

No Goal |
2.10 |
5.98 |
2.80 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.70 |
2.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.98 |
2.81 |

####
Go to Top

###
Salford vs Grimsby at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salford** and **Grimsby** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salford |
1.75 |
2.18 |
-11.3 |

Draw |
3.28 |
3.83 |
-4.4 |

Grimsby |
5.27 |
3.57 |
9.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.05 |
7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.95 |
-13.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Grimsby, Over 2.5 (9 %, 7.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** at home**.

Salford,** at home**, had 8 wins, 10 draws, no defeats and gathered 34 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** as a guest**.

Grimsby,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Mar |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Salford** is **-0.365** and for the **Grimsby** is **0.185.**

The home dynamic for the **Salford** is **0.434** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Grimsby** is **-0.129.**

The offensive ability for the **Salford** is **-0.657** and for the **Grimsby** is **0.278.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Salford** is **-0.288** and for the **Grimsby** is **-0.015.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salford** and the red line for guest team, **Grimsby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salford |
25% |
26% |
33% |
16% |

Grimsby |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **0.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.12** goals in the game and the home team **Salford ** to win by **0.76** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Salford ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |