2021 04 02 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cheltenham vs Tranmere at 02 April 2021
Walsall vs Harrogate at 02 April 2021
Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town at 02 April 2021
Salford vs Grimsby at 02 April 2021
Port Vale vs Exeter at 02 April 2021
Cambridge vs Morecambe at 02 April 2021
Bradford vs Forest Green at 02 April 2021
Bolton vs Colchester at 02 April 2021
Barrow vs Newport County at 02 April 2021
Oldham vs Stevenage at 02 April 2021
Mansfield vs Leyton Orient at 02 April 2021
Southend vs Carlisle at 03 April 2021


Cheltenham vs Tranmere at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Tranmere for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cheltenham

2.05

2.52

-9.1

Draw

3.28

3.65

-3.1

Tranmere

3.62

3.04

5.3

Over 2.5

2.23

2.16

1.5

Under 2.5

1.63

1.87

-7.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tranmere, Over 2.5 (5.3 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cheltenham in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance at home.
Cheltenham, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Morecambe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Salford

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Barrow

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Exeter

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Mansfield

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Port Vale

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Mar

Southend

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Scunthorpe

A

2

0

W

U

N


Tranmere in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance as a guest.
Tranmere, as a guest, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Colchester

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Exeter

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Mar

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Southend

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Crawley Town

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Newport County

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Leyton Orient

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Cheltenham is 0.032 and for the Tranmere is 0.185.
The home dynamic for the Cheltenham is 0.16 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tranmere is 0.245.
The offensive ability for the Cheltenham is 0.142 and for the Tranmere is 0.304.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cheltenham is -0.202 and for the Tranmere is -0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cheltenham and the red line for guest team, Tranmere.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cheltenham

27%

34%

25%

15%

Tranmere

31%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.34 goals and Tranmere to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.27 goals and Tranmere to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.55

1

5.03

2-3

2.02

2

3.92

4+

4.44

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.55

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

3.40

2.91

2-3 goals

2.33

4.12

3.05

4+ goals

2.71

3.12

3.21

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.74

3.10

Un 1.5

2.76

3.40

2.91

Ov 2.5

2.13

6.44

2.67

Un 2.5

3.00

2.65

3.46

Ov 3.5

2.71

3.12

3.21

Un 3.5

2.47

3.82

3.00

Goal-Goal

2.93

2.64

3.57

No Goal

2.21

5.95

2.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

5.38

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

5.95

2.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Walsall vs Harrogate at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Walsall and Harrogate for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Walsall

3.44

2.69

8.1

Draw

3.14

3.61

-4.1

Harrogate

2.37

2.86

-7.2

Over 2.5

2.51

2.25

4.6

Under 2.5

1.57

1.80

-8.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Walsall, Over 2.5 (8.1 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Walsall in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance at home.
Walsall, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Bolton

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Mar

Crawley Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Mar

Barrow

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Cambridge

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G


Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance as a guest.
Harrogate, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 45.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Southend

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Morecambe

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Forest Green

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Colchester

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Stevenage

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Barrow

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Grimsby

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Walsall is -0.421 and for the Harrogate is -0.407.
The home dynamic for the Walsall is 0.113 and the dynamic as a guest for the Harrogate is 0.27.
The offensive ability for the Walsall is -0.09 and for the Harrogate is -0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Walsall is -0.571 and for the Harrogate is -0.407.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Walsall and the red line for guest team, Harrogate.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Walsall

30%

33%

24%

13%

Harrogate

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Walsall to score 0.92 goals and Harrogate to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.2 goals and Harrogate to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

3.34

1

4.81

2-3

2.04

2

3.89

4+

4.76

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.34

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.99

3.29

2.77

2-3 goals

2.46

4.16

2.84

4+ goals

2.84

3.13

3.04

Ov 1.5

2.56

3.79

2.90

Un 1.5

2.99

3.29

2.77

Ov 2.5

2.22

6.63

2.51

Un 2.5

3.20

2.66

3.21

Ov 3.5

2.84

3.13

3.04

Un 3.5

2.63

3.78

2.81

Goal-Goal

3.02

2.63

3.47

No Goal

2.41

5.65

2.45

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

5.49

2.63

NG+Un 2.5

2.52

5.65

2.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Scunthorpe and Crawley Town for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Scunthorpe

2.41

2.44

-0.5

Draw

3.20

3.61

-3.5

Crawley Town

2.97

3.18

-2.2

Over 2.5

2.17

2.21

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.68

1.83

-4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Scunthorpe in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance at home.
Scunthorpe, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Bradford

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Southend

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Oldham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Leyton Orient

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Exeter

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Salford

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

2

L

U

N


Crawley Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance as a guest.
Crawley Town, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Mar

Carlisle

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Barrow

A

2

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Salford

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Scunthorpe is 0.127 and for the Crawley Town is -0.274.
The home dynamic for the Scunthorpe is -0.283 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crawley Town is 0.129.
The offensive ability for the Scunthorpe is 0.657 and for the Crawley Town is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Scunthorpe is -0.545 and for the Crawley Town is -0.43.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Scunthorpe and the red line for guest team, Crawley Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Scunthorpe

26%

35%

23%

15%

Crawley Town

32%

37%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.23 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.28 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.45

1

4.83

2-3

2.02

2

3.88

4+

4.61

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.45

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.59

3.49

3.05

2-3 goals

2.35

3.83

3.19

4+ goals

2.47

3.29

3.44

Ov 1.5

2.39

3.65

3.26

Un 1.5

2.59

3.49

3.05

Ov 2.5

2.03

6.86

2.76

Un 2.5

2.93

2.58

3.68

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.29

3.44

Un 3.5

2.43

3.70

3.14

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.59

3.71

No Goal

2.10

5.98

2.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

5.70

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

5.98

2.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Salford vs Grimsby at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salford

1.75

2.18

-11.3

Draw

3.28

3.83

-4.4

Grimsby

5.27

3.57

9.0

Over 2.5

2.43

2.05

7.6

Under 2.5

1.55

1.95

-13.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby, Over 2.5 (9 %, 7.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salford in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 8 wins, 10 draws, no defeats and gathered 34 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Exeter

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Cheltenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Scunthorpe

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Feb

Morecambe

A

1

2

L

O

G


Grimsby in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance as a guest.
Grimsby, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Barrow

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Mansfield

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Mar

Tranmere

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Carlisle

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Forest Green

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Salford is -0.365 and for the Grimsby is 0.185.
The home dynamic for the Salford is 0.434 and the dynamic as a guest for the Grimsby is -0.129.
The offensive ability for the Salford is -0.657 and for the Grimsby is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Salford is -0.288 and for the Grimsby is -0.015.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salford

25%

26%

33%

16%

Grimsby

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.44 goals and Grimsby to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.4 goals and Grimsby to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.88

1

5.62

2-3

1.97

2

3.94

4+

4.26

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.88

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at