2021 04 02 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Paris SG vs Lille at 03 April 2021
Monaco vs Metz at 03 April 2021
Lens vs Lyon at 03 April 2021
Nantes vs Nice at 04 April 2021
Nimes vs St Etienne at 04 April 2021
Reims vs Rennes at 04 April 2021
Lorient vs Brest at 04 April 2021
Angers vs Montpellier at 04 April 2021
Marseille vs Dijon at 04 April 2021
Bordeaux vs Strasbourg at 04 April 2021


Paris SG vs Lille at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Paris SG and Lille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Paris SG

1.69

2.26

-14.9

Draw

3.79

3.55

1.8

Lille

5.23

3.62

8.5

Over 2.5

1.94

2.49

-11.4

Under 2.5

1.92

1.67

7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Lille, Under 2.5 (1.8 %, 8.5 %, 7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Paris SG in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance at home.
Paris SG, at home, had 10 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 68.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Lyon

A

4

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Nantes

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Mar

Bordeaux

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Dijon

A

4

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Monaco

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Nice

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Marseille

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Nimes

H

3

0

W

O

N


Lille in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance as a guest.
Lille, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 31 points, 73.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Nimes

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Monaco

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Marseille

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Strasbourg

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Lorient

A

4

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Brest

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Nantes

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Bordeaux

A

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Paris SG is 0.429 and for the Lille is 0.126.
The home dynamic for the Paris SG is 0.632 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lille is 0.751.
The offensive ability for the Paris SG is 0.657 and for the Lille is 0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Paris SG is -0.227 and for the Lille is -0.015.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Paris SG and the red line for guest team, Lille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Paris SG

26%

37%

25%

13%

Lille

38%

36%

16%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.75 goals and Lille to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.25 goals and Lille to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.01

1

4.27

2-3

2.05

2

3.75

4+

5.62

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

8.26

Un 1.5

3.01

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.51

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.39

3.57

2-3 goals

2.09

3.67

4.00

4+ goals

2.66

3.49

2.97

Ov 1.5

2.22

3.62

3.66

Un 1.5

2.35

3.39

3.57

Ov 2.5

1.94

7.82

2.81

Un 2.5

2.55

2.59

4.50

Ov 3.5

2.66

3.49

2.97

Un 3.5

2.19

3.55

3.81

Goal-Goal

2.93

2.48

3.91

No Goal

1.90

5.52

3.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

6.35

2.77

NG+Un 2.5

1.98

5.52

3.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Monaco vs Metz at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Metz for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monaco

1.45

1.96

-17.9

Draw

4.49

3.94

3.1

Metz

7.02

4.24

9.3

Over 2.5

1.80

2.11

-8.2

Under 2.5

2.04

1.90

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Metz, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 9.3 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monaco in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance at home.
Monaco, at home, had 9 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 71.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Mar

St Etienne

A

4

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Lille

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Strasbourg

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Brest

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Paris SG

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Lorient

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Feb

Nimes

A

4

3

W

O

G

03 Feb

Nice

H

2

1

W

O

G


Metz in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Metz in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance as a guest.
Metz, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Rennes

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Mar

Lens

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Angers

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Bordeaux

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Nice

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Strasbourg

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

St Etienne

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Feb

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Monaco is 0.429 and for the Metz is -0.2.
The home dynamic for the Monaco is 0.585 and the dynamic as a guest for the Metz is 0.311.
The offensive ability for the Monaco is 0.167 and for the Metz is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Monaco is 0.605 and for the Metz is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monaco and the red line for guest team, Metz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monaco

23%

25%

35%

17%

Metz

37%

36%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monaco to score 2.03 goals and Metz to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 1.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.46 goals and Metz to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.83

1

5.68

2-3

1.93

2

3.80

4+

4.59

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.83

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.59

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.07

3.14

2-3 goals

1.61

5.77

4.90

4+ goals

2.32

2.79

4.74

Ov 1.5

1.77

4.39

4.85

Un 1.5

2.81

3.07

3.14

Ov 2.5

1.66

6.08

4.31

Un 2.5

2.34

2.99

4.19

Ov 3.5

2.32

2.79

4.74

Un 3.5

1.88

4.46

4.13

Goal-Goal

2.17

2.87

5.24

No Goal

1.79

6.07

3.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

5.03

4.26

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

6.07

3.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lens vs Lyon at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lens and Lyon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lens

4.06

2.38

17.4

Draw

3.85

3.75

0.7

Lyon

1.85

3.21

-22.9

Over 2.5

1.68

2.41

-18.0

Under 2.5

2.25

1.71

14.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lens, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.4 %, 0.7 %, 14 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lens in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance at home.
Lens, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Strasbourg

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Metz

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

St Etienne

A

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Angers

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Dijon

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Reims

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Rennes

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Marseille

H

2

2

D

O

G


Lyon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance as a guest.
Lyon, as a guest, had 8 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 30 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Paris SG

H

2

4

L

O

G

12 Mar

Reims

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Marseille

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Brest

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Montpellier

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Strasbourg

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Feb

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Lens is 0.627 and for the Lyon is -0.015.
The home dynamic for the Lens is -0.142 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lyon is 0.651.
The offensive ability for the Lens is 1 and for the Lyon is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lens is -1 and for the Lyon is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lens and the red line for guest team, Lyon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lens

30%

29%

32%

9%

Lyon

37%

36%

12%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lens to score 1.02 goals and Lyon to score 1.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the guest team Lyon to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lens to score 1.21 goals and Lyon to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.09

0-1

3.07

1

4.63

2-3

2.06

2

3.88

4+

5.38

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.77

Un 1.5

3.07

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.42

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

5.38

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.02

2.96

3.02

2-3 goals

1.82

4.58

4.30

4+ goals

4.13

3.65

2.07

Ov 1.5

2.15

4.28

3.31

Un 1.5

3.02

2.96

3.02

Ov 2.5

2.12

8.12

2.46

Un 2.5

2.60

2.70

4.08

Ov 3.5

4.13

3.65

2.07

Un 3.5

2.17

3.76

3.67

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.81

3.56

No Goal

2.14

5.06

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.09

6.57

2.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

5.06

3.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nantes vs Nice at 04 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nantes and Nice for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 04 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nantes

2.49

2.48

0.2

Draw

3.33

3.61

-2.3

Nice

2.90

3.12

-2.4

Over 2.5

2.03

2.48

-8.9

Under 2.5

1.82

1.68

4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nantes, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nantes in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance at home.
Nantes, at home, had 2 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Lorient

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Paris SG

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Reims

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Marseille

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Angers

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Lille

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Feb

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G


Nice in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance as a guest.
Nice, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Marseille

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Lorient

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Nimes

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Rennes

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Metz

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Marseille

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Paris SG

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Angers

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Nantes is 0.23 and for the Nice is 0.244.
The home dynamic for the Nantes is -0.189 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nice is 0.278.
The offensive ability for the Nantes is 1 and for the Nice is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nantes is -1 and for the Nice is -0.607.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nantes and the red line for guest team, Nice.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nantes

30%

33%

28%

9%

Nice

36%

36%

12%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.28 goals and Nice to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.17 goals and Nice to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.17

0-1

2.96

1

4.37

2-3

2.09

2

3.86

4+

5.43

3

4.55

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

8.55

Un 1.5

2.96

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.48

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

5.43

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-