2021 04 02 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Leeds vs Sheffield United at 03 April 2021
Chelsea vs West Brom at 03 April 2021
Arsenal vs Liverpool at 03 April 2021
Leicester vs Man City at 03 April 2021
Southampton vs Burnley at 04 April 2021
Newcastle vs Tottenham at 04 April 2021
Man United vs Brighton at 04 April 2021
Aston Villa vs Fulham at 04 April 2021
Everton vs Crystal Palace at 05 April 2021
Wolves vs West Ham at 05 April 2021


Leeds vs Sheffield United at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leeds and Sheffield United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leeds

1.53

1.64

-4.4

Draw

4.36

4.13

1.3

Sheffield United

6.28

6.67

-0.9

Over 2.5

1.82

2.17

-8.9

Under 2.5

2.03

1.86

4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (1.3 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leeds in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance at home.
Leeds, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Mar

Fulham

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Chelsea

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

West Ham

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Southampton

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Feb

Wolves

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Arsenal

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

2

0

W

U

N


Sheffield United in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield United, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 9.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Leicester

A

0

5

L

O

N

06 Mar

Southampton

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Aston Villa

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Liverpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Fulham

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Feb

West Ham

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Feb

Chelsea

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

West Brom

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Leeds is -0.063 and for the Sheffield United is -0.652.
The home dynamic for the Leeds is -0.123 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sheffield United is -0.568.
The offensive ability for the Leeds is -0.519 and for the Sheffield United is -0.939.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leeds is -0.227 and for the Sheffield United is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leeds and the red line for guest team, Sheffield United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leeds

12%

43%

17%

29%

Sheffield United

47%

35%

13%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.95 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the home team Leeds to win by 1.25 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.62 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.77 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Leeds to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.18

0-1

3.40

1

4.18

2-3

2.00

2

4.08

4+

4.90

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.40

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.90

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.48

5.35

7.17

2-3 goals

1.85

3.33

6.33

4+ goals

1.48

5.51

7.03

Ov 1.5

1.72

3.76

6.52

Un 1.5

1.48

5.35

7.17

Ov 2.5

1.39

12.41

4.99

Un 2.5

1.95

2.63

9.46

Ov 3.5

1.48

5.51

7.03

Un 3.5

1.69

3.87

6.62

Goal-Goal

2.39

2.51

5.47

No Goal

1.29

9.60

8.38

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

8.65

3.72

NG+Un 2.5

1.40

9.60

6.82


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Chelsea vs West Brom at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chelsea and West Brom for Premier League (England), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chelsea

1.22

1.51

-15.7

Draw

6.27

4.63

5.6

West Brom

14.65

8.13

5.5

Over 2.5

1.71

2.14

-11.8

Under 2.5

2.16

1.88

6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, West Brom, Under 2.5 (5.6 %, 5.5 %, 6.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chelsea in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance at home.
Chelsea, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Leeds

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

Everton

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Southampton

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Sheffield United

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Feb

Tottenham

A

1

0

W

U

N


West Brom in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance as a guest.
West Brom, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Crystal Palace

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Newcastle

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Mar

Everton

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Brighton

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Burnley

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Man United

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Tottenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Feb

Sheffield United

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Chelsea is 0.603 and for the West Brom is -0.207.
The home dynamic for the Chelsea is 0.321 and the dynamic as a guest for the West Brom is -0.394.
The offensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.167 and for the West Brom is -0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.974 and for the West Brom is -0.015.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chelsea and the red line for guest team, West Brom.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chelsea

10%

37%

25%

28%

West Brom

50%

33%

12%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chelsea to score 2.39 goals and West Brom to score 0.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chelsea to score 1.71 goals and West Brom to score 0.71 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 1 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

19.61

0-1

3.66

1

4.50

2-3

1.88

2

3.86

4+

5.13

3

3.68

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.66

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

5.13

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.44

5.35

8.27

2-3 goals

1.53

4.32

8.56

4+ goals

1.56

4.64

6.96

Ov 1.5

1.54

4.40

8.07

Un 1.5

1.44

5.35

8.27

Ov 2.5

1.35

11.12

5.99

Un 2.5

1.70

3.06

11.82

Ov 3.5

1.56

4.64

6.96

Un 3.5

1.50

4.62

8.46

Goal-Goal

2.16

2.69

6.08

No Goal

1.22

10.88

11.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.56

7.64

4.40

NG+Un 2.5

1.31

10.88

9.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Arsenal vs Liverpool at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Arsenal and Liverpool for Premier League (England), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Arsenal

3.16

2.91

2.7

Draw

3.59

3.88

-2.1

Liverpool

2.26

2.51

-4.4

Over 2.5

1.75

1.92

-5.1

Under 2.5

2.12

2.08

0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Arsenal, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Arsenal in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance at home.
Arsenal, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

West Ham

A

3

3

D

O

G

14 Mar

Tottenham

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Leicester

A

3

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Man City

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Leeds

H

4

2

W

O

G

06 Feb

Aston Villa

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Feb

Wolves

A

1

2

L

O

G


Liverpool in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Liverpool in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance as a guest.
Liverpool, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Mar

Wolves

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Fulham

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Mar

Chelsea

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Sheffield United

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Everton

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Leicester

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Man City

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Feb

Brighton

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Arsenal is 0.429 and for the Liverpool is -0.281.
The home dynamic for the Arsenal is 0 and the dynamic as a guest for the Liverpool is 0.361.
The offensive ability for the Arsenal is 0.657 and for the Liverpool is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Arsenal is -1 and for the Liverpool is -0.281.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Arsenal and the red line for guest team, Liverpool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Arsenal

31%

28%

26%

15%

Liverpool

25%

33%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Arsenal to score 1.2 goals and Liverpool to score 1.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Arsenal to score 1.25 goals and Liverpool to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.98

1

5.81

2-3

2.10

2

4.37

4+

3.65

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.98

5

11.90

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.59

3.18

2.46

2-3 goals

2.48

5.30

2.45

4+ goals

3.30

3.08

2.69

Ov 1.5

2.73

4.20

2.53

Un 1.5

3.59

3.18

2.46

Ov 2.5

2.51

5.87

2.32

Un 2.5

3.50

2.84

2.76

Ov 3.5

3.30

3.08

2.69

Un 3.5

2.78

4.31

2.45

Goal-Goal

3.03

2.88

3.10

No Goal

2.78

6.16

2.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.50

4.78

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.85

6.16

2.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leicester vs Man City at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leicester and Man City for Premier League (England), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leicester

6.21

3.42

13.1

Draw

4.10

3.80

1.9

Man City

1.58

2.25

-18.8

Over 2.5

1.86

2.02

-4.3

Under 2.5

1.99

1.98

0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leicester, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.1 %, 1.9 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leicester in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leicester in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance at home.
Leicester, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Sheffield United

H

5

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Brighton

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Arsenal

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Feb

Aston Villa

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Liverpool

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Wolves

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Fulham

A

2

0

W

U

N


Man City in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance as a guest.
Man City, as a guest, had 10 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 33 points, 78.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Fulham

A

3

0

W

O

N

10 Mar

Southampton

H

5

2

W

O

G

07 Mar

Man United

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Wolves

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

West Ham

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Arsenal

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Tottenham

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Leicester is 0.611 and for the Man City is 0.652.
The home dynamic for the Leicester is -0.009 and the dynamic as a guest for the Man City is 0.759.
The offensive ability for the Leicester is 1 and for the Man City is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leicester is -0.545 and for the Man City is -0.333.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leicester and the red line for guest team, Man City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leicester

33%

36%

18%

13%

Man City

24%

32%

24%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leicester to score 0.71 goals and Man City to score 1.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 1.19 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.12 goals and Man City to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.72

1

5.24

2-3

2.09

2

4.22

4+

3.95

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.72

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.