2021 04 02 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nacional vs Portimonense at 02 April 2021
Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente at 03 April 2021
Porto vs Santa Clara at 03 April 2021
Guimaraes vs Tondela at 04 April 2021
Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira at 04 April 2021
Belenenses vs Boavista at 04 April 2021
Farense vs Sp Braga at 05 April 2021
Benfica vs Maritimo at 05 April 2021


Nacional vs Portimonense at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nacional and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nacional

2.95

2.30

9.6

Draw

3.11

3.66

-4.8

Portimonense

2.44

3.44

-11.9

Over 2.5

2.24

2.31

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.66

1.76

-3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nacional (9.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nacional in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance at home.
Nacional, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Mar

Gil Vicente

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Maritimo

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Mar

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Sp Braga

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Belenenses

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Farense

H

2

3

L

O

G

09 Feb

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Feb

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N


Portimonense in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance as a guest.
Portimonense, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 13.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Porto

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Santa Clara

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Tondela

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Feb

Maritimo

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

4

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Feb

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Nacional is -1 and for the Portimonense is -0.222.
The home dynamic for the Nacional is -0.349 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portimonense is -0.651.
The offensive ability for the Nacional is 0.545 and for the Portimonense is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nacional is -1 and for the Portimonense is -0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nacional and the red line for guest team, Portimonense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nacional

27%

34%

22%

17%

Portimonense

38%

32%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nacional to score 1.05 goals and Portimonense to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nacional to score 1.29 goals and Portimonense to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.15

1

4.63

2-3

2.08

2

4.00

4+

4.90

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.58

Un 1.5

3.15

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.90

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

3.14

3.69

2-3 goals

2.21

4.32

3.16

4+ goals

2.29

3.29

3.85

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.95

3.34

Un 1.5

2.44

3.14

3.69

Ov 2.5

1.95

7.00

2.91

Un 2.5

2.66

2.67

3.99

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.29

3.85

Un 3.5

2.30

3.76

3.35

Goal-Goal

2.86

2.64

3.69

No Goal

1.97

5.39

3.26

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

5.58

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

5.39

3.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rio Ave and Gil Vicente for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rio Ave

2.09

2.25

-3.4

Draw

3.21

3.66

-3.8

Gil Vicente

3.63

3.53

0.8

Over 2.5

2.43

2.27

2.9

Under 2.5

1.56

1.79

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (0.8 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rio Ave in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance at home.
Rio Ave, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Famalicao

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Guimaraes

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Tondela

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Feb

Nacional

H

0

0

D

U

N


Gil Vicente in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance as a guest.
Gil Vicente, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 30.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Mar

Nacional

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Guimaraes

A

4

2

W

O

G

06 Mar

Porto

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Tondela

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Santa Clara

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Portimonense

A

1

4

L

O

G

09 Feb

Sp Lisbon

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Feb

Boavista

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Rio Ave is 0.071 and for the Gil Vicente is 0.059.
The home dynamic for the Rio Ave is 0.019 and the dynamic as a guest for the Gil Vicente is -0.419.
The offensive ability for the Rio Ave is -0.176 and for the Gil Vicente is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rio Ave is -0.142 and for the Gil Vicente is -0.311.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rio Ave and the red line for guest team, Gil Vicente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rio Ave

26%

34%

22%

18%

Gil Vicente

37%

35%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.26 goals and Gil Vicente to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Rio Ave to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.32 goals and Gil Vicente to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Rio Ave to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.23

1

4.65

2-3

2.07

2

4.00

4+

4.78

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.23

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.78

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.26

3.44

2-3 goals

2.14

4.08

3.47

4+ goals

2.22

3.54

3.73

Ov 1.5

2.17

3.90

3.54

Un 1.5

2.48

3.26

3.44

Ov 2.5

1.87

7.47

3.02

Un 2.5

2.69

2.63

4.03

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.54

3.73

Un 3.5

2.26

3.72

3.46

Goal-Goal

2.73

2.65

3.91

No Goal

1.96

5.60

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.95

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

5.60

3.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Porto vs Santa Clara at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Porto and Santa Clara for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Porto

1.27

2.18

-32.9

Draw

5.26

3.70

8.0

Santa Clara

11.39

3.70

18.2

Over 2.5

1.85

2.51

-14.2

Under 2.5

1.96

1.66

9.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Santa Clara, Under 2.5 (8 %, 18.2 %, 9.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Porto in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance at home.
Porto, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 27 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Portimonense

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Gil Vicente

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Sp Lisbon

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Boavista

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Feb

Sp Braga

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Feb

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N


Santa Clara in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance as a guest.
Santa Clara, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Tondela

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Portimonense

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

Sp Lisbon

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Sp Braga

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Feb

Farense

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Porto is 0.825 and for the Santa Clara is -0.111.
The home dynamic for the Porto is 0.708 and the dynamic as a guest for the Santa Clara is 0.237.
The offensive ability for the Porto is 0.631 and for the Santa Clara is 0.33.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Porto is 0.202 and for the Santa Clara is -0.311.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Porto and the red line for guest team, Santa Clara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Porto

28%

35%

22%

16%

Santa Clara

46%

22%

26%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Porto to score 2.15 goals and Santa Clara to score 0.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Porto to win by 1.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Porto to score 1.25 goals and Santa Clara to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Porto to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.75

0-1

2.84

1

4.48

2-3

2.10

2

4.00

4+

5.78

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

9.09

Un 1.5

2.84

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.50

6+

111.11

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.58

Ov 3.5

5.78

NoG

1.63

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.17

2.73

5.77

2-3 goals

2.16

6.19

2.66

4+ goals

2.25

2.66

5.58

Ov 1.5

2.18

4.58

3.10

Un 1.5

2.17

2.73

5.77

Ov 2.5

2.02

6.15

2.92

Un 2.5

2.30

2.92

4.49

Ov 3.5

2.25

2.66

5.58

Un 3.5

2.16

4.02

3.45

Goal-Goal

3.13

2.73

3.18

No Goal

1.83

4.76

4.12

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.51

4.78

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

4.76

3.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Guimaraes vs Tondela at 04 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Guimaraes and Tondela for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 04 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Guimaraes

1.66

2.67

-22.8

Draw

3.68

3.66

0.1

Tondela

5.43

2.85

16.7

Over 2.5

2.20

2.51

-5.6

Under 2.5

1.67

1.66

0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Tondela, Under 2.5 (0.1 %, 16.7 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Guimaraes in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance at home.
Guimaraes, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Sp Lisbon

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Gil Vicente

H

2

4

L

O

G

09 Mar

Sp Braga

A

0

3

L

O

N

26 Feb

Boavista

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Farense

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Rio Ave

H

1

3

L

O

G

08 Feb

Belenenses

A

1

1

D

U

G


Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance as a guest.
Tondela, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Santa Clara

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Sp Lisbon

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Portimonense

A

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Sp Braga

A

2

4

L

O

G

16 Feb

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Rio Ave

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Guimaraes is -0.508 and for the Tondela is -0.207.
The home dynamic for the Guimaraes is 0.057 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tondela is -1.
The offensive ability for the Guimaraes is 0.142 and for the Tondela is 0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Guimaraes is -1 and for the Tondela is -0.681.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Guimaraes and the red line for guest team, Tondela.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Guimaraes

33%

37%

19%

12%

Tondela

42%

18%

33%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.59 goals and Tondela to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.1 goals and Tondela to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.35

0-1

2.87

1

4.69

2-3

2.09

2

3.98

4+

5.81

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

9.09

Un 1.5

2.87

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.50

6+

111.11

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.54

Ov 3.5

5.81

NoG

1.65

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-