# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Nacional vs Portimonense at 02 April 2021**** Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente at 03 April 2021**** Porto vs Santa Clara at 03 April 2021**** Guimaraes vs Tondela at 04 April 2021**** Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira at 04 April 2021**** Belenenses vs Boavista at 04 April 2021**** Farense vs Sp Braga at 05 April 2021**** Benfica vs Maritimo at 05 April 2021**

###
Nacional vs Portimonense at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nacional** and **Portimonense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **02 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nacional |
2.95 |
2.30 |
9.6 |

Draw |
3.11 |
3.66 |
-4.8 |

Portimonense |
2.44 |
3.44 |
-11.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.31 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.76 |
-3.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nacional (9.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nacional** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nacional** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance** at home**.

Nacional,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Mar |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Mar |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Farense |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Portimonense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portimonense** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance** as a guest**.

Portimonense,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 13.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Porto |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Tondela |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Nacional** is **-1** and for the **Portimonense** is **-0.222.**

The home dynamic for the **Nacional** is **-0.349** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Portimonense** is **-0.651.**

The offensive ability for the **Nacional** is **0.545** and for the **Portimonense** is **-0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Nacional** is **-1** and for the **Portimonense** is **-0.333.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nacional** and the red line for guest team, **Portimonense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nacional |
27% |
34% |
22% |
17% |

Portimonense |
38% |
32% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nacional** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nacional** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.15 |

1 |
4.63 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.90 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.15 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.90 |

NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.44 |
3.14 |
3.69 |

2-3 goals |
2.21 |
4.32 |
3.16 |

4+ goals |
2.29 |
3.29 |
3.85 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.95 |
3.34 |

Un 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.14 |
3.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
7.00 |
2.91 |

Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
2.67 |
3.99 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.29 |
3.85 |

Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.76 |
3.35 |

Goal-Goal |
2.86 |
2.64 |
3.69 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
5.39 |
3.26 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.58 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.39 |
3.21 |

####
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###
Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rio Ave** and **Gil Vicente** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **03 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rio Ave |
2.09 |
2.25 |
-3.4 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.66 |
-3.8 |

Gil Vicente |
3.63 |
3.53 |
0.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.27 |
2.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
1.79 |
-8.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (0.8 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rio Ave** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rio Ave** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance** at home**.

Rio Ave,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Mar |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Famalicao |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Guimaraes |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Nacional |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Gil Vicente** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gil Vicente** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance** as a guest**.

Gil Vicente,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 30.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Mar |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Guimaraes |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Porto |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Portimonense |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Rio Ave** is **0.071** and for the **Gil Vicente** is **0.059.**

The home dynamic for the **Rio Ave** is **0.019** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Gil Vicente** is **-0.419.**

The offensive ability for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.176** and for the **Gil Vicente** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.142** and for the **Gil Vicente** is **-0.311.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rio Ave** and the red line for guest team, **Gil Vicente. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rio Ave |
26% |
34% |
22% |
18% |

Gil Vicente |
37% |
35% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rio Ave** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Gil Vicente** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.12** goals in the game and the home team **Rio Ave ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rio Ave** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Gil Vicente** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Rio Ave ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.23 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.78 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.30 |
Un 1.5 |
3.23 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.78 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.48 |
3.26 |
3.44 |

2-3 goals |
2.14 |
4.08 |
3.47 |

4+ goals |
2.22 |
3.54 |
3.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.90 |
3.54 |

Un 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.26 |
3.44 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
7.47 |
3.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.69 |
2.63 |
4.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.54 |
3.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.72 |
3.46 |

Goal-Goal |
2.73 |
2.65 |
3.91 |

No Goal |
1.96 |
5.60 |
3.22 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.95 |
2.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
5.60 |
3.18 |

####
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###
Porto vs Santa Clara at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Porto** and **Santa Clara** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **03 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Porto |
1.27 |
2.18 |
-32.9 |

Draw |
5.26 |
3.70 |
8.0 |

Santa Clara |
11.39 |
3.70 |
18.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.51 |
-14.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.66 |
9.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Santa Clara, Under 2.5 (8 %, 18.2 %, 9.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Porto** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Porto** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance** at home**.

Porto,** at home**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 27 points, 75.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Portimonense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Santa Clara** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Santa Clara** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance** as a guest**.

Santa Clara,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Tondela |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Portimonense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Porto** is **0.825** and for the **Santa Clara** is **-0.111.**

The home dynamic for the **Porto** is **0.708** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Santa Clara** is **0.237.**

The offensive ability for the **Porto** is **0.631** and for the **Santa Clara** is **0.33.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Porto** is **0.202** and for the **Santa Clara** is **-0.311.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Porto** and the red line for guest team, **Santa Clara. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Porto |
28% |
35% |
22% |
16% |

Santa Clara |
46% |
22% |
26% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Porto** to score **2.15 ** goals and **Santa Clara** to score **0.45 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Porto ** to win by **1.7** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Porto** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Santa Clara** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and the home team **Porto ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.75 |
0-1 |
2.84 |

1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
5.78 |

3 |
4.41 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.54 |

4 |
9.09 |
Un 1.5 |
2.84 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |

6+ |
111.11 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |

Gg |
2.58 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.78 |

NoG |
1.63 |
Un 3.5 |
1.21 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.17 |
2.73 |
5.77 |

2-3 goals |
2.16 |
6.19 |
2.66 |

4+ goals |
2.25 |
2.66 |
5.58 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
4.58 |
3.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.17 |
2.73 |
5.77 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.15 |
2.92 |

Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
2.92 |
4.49 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.25 |
2.66 |
5.58 |

Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
4.02 |
3.45 |

Goal-Goal |
3.13 |
2.73 |
3.18 |

No Goal |
1.83 |
4.76 |
4.12 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.51 |
4.78 |
2.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
4.76 |
3.92 |

####
Go to Top

###
Guimaraes vs Tondela at 04 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Guimaraes** and **Tondela** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **04 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Guimaraes |
1.66 |
2.67 |
-22.8 |

Draw |
3.68 |
3.66 |
0.1 |

Tondela |
5.43 |
2.85 |
16.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.51 |
-5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.66 |
0.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Tondela, Under 2.5 (0.1 %, 16.7 %, 0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Guimaraes** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Guimaraes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance** at home**.

Guimaraes,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Gil Vicente |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Feb |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Farense |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Tondela** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tondela** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance** as a guest**.

Tondela,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Santa Clara |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Guimaraes** is **-0.508** and for the **Tondela** is **-0.207.**

The home dynamic for the **Guimaraes** is **0.057** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Tondela** is **-1.**

The offensive ability for the **Guimaraes** is **0.142** and for the **Tondela** is **0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Guimaraes** is **-1** and for the **Tondela** is **-0.681.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Guimaraes** and the red line for guest team, **Tondela. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Guimaraes |
33% |
37% |
19% |
12% |

Tondela |
42% |
18% |
33% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Guimaraes** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Tondela** to score **0.69 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and the home team **Guimaraes ** to win by **0.9** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Guimaraes** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Tondela** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.35 |
0-1 |
2.87 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
5.81 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.54 |

4 |
9.09 |
Un 1.5 |
2.87 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |

6+ |
111.11 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |

Gg |
2.54 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.81 |

NoG |
1.65 |
Un 3.5 |
1.21 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |