Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Almeria vs Vallecano at 02 April 2021
Castellon vs Oviedo at 03 April 2021
Girona vs Ponferradina at 03 April 2021
Logrones vs Tenerife at 03 April 2021
Las Palmas vs Mallorca at 04 April 2021
Leganes vs Sabadell at 04 April 2021
Lugo vs Malaga at 04 April 2021
Sp Gijon vs Mirandes at 04 April 2021
Albacete vs Espanol at 04 April 2021
Cartagena vs Alcorcon at 05 April 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Zaragoza at 05 April 2021

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Almeria vs Vallecano at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Almeria and Vallecano for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Almeria (4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Almeria in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Almeria in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Almeria’s performance at home.
Almeria, at home, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Almeria was :

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Vallecano in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vallecano in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance as a guest.
Vallecano, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :

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The form score for the Almeria is 0.405 and for the Vallecano is 0.022.
The home dynamic for the Almeria is 0.415 and the dynamic as a guest for the Vallecano is 0.004.
The offensive ability for the Almeria is 0.631 and for the Vallecano is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Almeria is 0.176 and for the Vallecano is -0.63.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Almeria and the red line for guest team, Vallecano.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.26 goals and Vallecano to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.37 goals and Vallecano to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Almeria to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Castellon vs Oviedo at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Castellon and Oviedo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Castellon, Over 2.5 (9.4 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Castellon in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Castellon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance at home.
Castellon, at home, had 7 wins, no draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

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Oviedo in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance as a guest.
Oviedo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

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The form score for the Castellon is 0.405 and for the Oviedo is -0.022.
The home dynamic for the Castellon is -0.038 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oviedo is 0.154.
The offensive ability for the Castellon is 0.253 and for the Oviedo is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Castellon is 0.519 and for the Oviedo is -0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Castellon and the red line for guest team, Oviedo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Castellon to score 0.95 goals and Oviedo to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.24 goals and Oviedo to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Girona vs Ponferradina at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Girona and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Girona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance at home.
Girona, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 52.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :

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Ponferradina in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance as a guest.
Ponferradina, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

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The form score for the Girona is 0.294 and for the Ponferradina is 0.17.
The home dynamic for the Girona is 0.208 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ponferradina is 0.112.
The offensive ability for the Girona is 0.657 and for the Ponferradina is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Girona is -1 and for the Ponferradina is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Girona and the red line for guest team, Ponferradina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Girona to score 1.13 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Girona to score 1.24 goals and Ponferradina to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Logrones vs Tenerife at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Logrones and Tenerife for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Logrones, Over 2.5 (12.6 %, 5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Logrones in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance at home.
Logrones, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :

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Tenerife in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tenerife in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance as a guest.
Tenerife, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :

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The form score for the Logrones is -0.429 and for the Tenerife is 0.022.
The home dynamic for the Logrones is 0.085 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tenerife is -0.261.
The offensive ability for the Logrones is -0.09 and for the Tenerife is 0.304.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Logrones is -1 and for the Tenerife is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Logrones and the red line for guest team, Tenerife.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Logrones to score 0.85 goals and Tenerife to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.93 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Logrones to score 1.24 goals and Tenerife to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.