Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Milan vs Sampdoria at 03 April 2021
Bologna vs Inter at 03 April 2021
Torino vs Juventus at 03 April 2021
Sassuolo vs Roma at 03 April 2021
Napoli vs Crotone at 03 April 2021
Lazio vs Spezia at 03 April 2021
Cagliari vs Verona at 03 April 2021
Benevento vs Parma at 03 April 2021
Atalanta vs Udinese at 03 April 2021
Genoa vs Fiorentina at 03 April 2021
Milan vs Sampdoria at 03 Apr 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Milan and Sampdoria for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Milan |
1.54 |
2.19 |
-19.3 |
|
Draw |
4.16 |
3.66 |
3.3 |
|
Sampdoria |
6.54 |
3.70 |
11.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
2.21 |
-14.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.24 |
1.82 |
10.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sampdoria, Under 2.5 (3.3 %, 11.7 %, 10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Milan in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milan in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance at home.
Milan, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milan was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Mar |
Fiorentina |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
14 Mar |
Napoli |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Mar |
Verona |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Mar |
Udinese |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Roma |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Feb |
Inter |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Spezia |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Crotone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
Sampdoria in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance as a guest.
Sampdoria, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Mar |
Torino |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Mar |
Bologna |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Mar |
Cagliari |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Mar |
Genoa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Atalanta |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Lazio |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Fiorentina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
07 Feb |
Benevento |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The form score for the Milan is 0.286 and for the Sampdoria is -0.274.
The home dynamic for the Milan is 0.368 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sampdoria is 0.046.
The offensive ability for the Milan is 0.253 and for the Sampdoria is 0.33.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Milan is -0.597 and for the Sampdoria is -0.607.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milan and the red line for guest team, Sampdoria.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Milan |
27% |
25% |
32% |
16% |
|
Sampdoria |
46% |
16% |
30% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milan to score 2.11 goals and Sampdoria to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 1.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milan to score 1.37 goals and Sampdoria to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.06 |
0-1 |
3.56 |
|
1 |
6.37 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.33 |
|
3 |
4.48 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |
|
5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
2.52 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |
|
NoG |
1.65 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.46 |
2.27 |
6.53 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.82 |
12.25 |
2.71 |
|
4+ goals |
3.08 |
2.12 |
4.91 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.10 |
4.84 |
3.16 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
2.27 |
6.53 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
4.17 |
3.11 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
3.34 |
4.38 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.08 |
2.12 |
4.91 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
4.70 |
3.44 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.18 |
2.66 |
3.23 |
|
No Goal |
1.82 |
4.88 |
4.09 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.86 |
3.28 |
2.90 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
4.88 |
4.06 |
Go to Top
Bologna vs Inter at 03 Apr 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Bologna and Inter for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Bologna |
6.94 |
2.99 |
19.0 |
|
Draw |
4.66 |
3.72 |
5.4 |
|
Inter |
1.46 |
2.52 |
-28.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.99 |
-12.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.01 |
7.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Bologna, Draw, Under 2.5 (19 %, 5.4 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Bologna in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance at home.
Bologna, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 53.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Mar |
Crotone |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
14 Mar |
Sampdoria |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
07 Mar |
Napoli |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Mar |
Cagliari |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Lazio |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Sassuolo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Feb |
Benevento |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
07 Feb |
Parma |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
Inter in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance as a guest.
Inter, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 31 points, 73.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Mar |
Torino |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Mar |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Mar |
Parma |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Genoa |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Milan |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Lazio |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Fiorentina |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Benevento |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The form score for the Bologna is 0.286 and for the Inter is 1.
The home dynamic for the Bologna is -0.047 and the dynamic as a guest for the Inter is 0.585.
The offensive ability for the Bologna is 0.631 and for the Inter is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bologna is -0.657 and for the Inter is -0.015.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bologna and the red line for guest team, Inter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Bologna |
34% |
20% |
35% |
10% |
|
Inter |
31% |
23% |
28% |
18% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 0.72 goals and Inter to score 2.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 1.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.21 goals and Inter to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
4.05 |
|
1 |
7.09 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
3.69 |
|
3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |
|
5 |
10.64 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
2.20 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.69 |
|
NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.98 |
2.33 |
3.13 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.20 |
10.28 |
2.24 |
|
4+ goals |
5.11 |
2.34 |
2.66 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.76 |
4.63 |
2.37 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |
2.33 |
3.13 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.04 |
4.34 |
2.27 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.94 |
3.25 |
2.84 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
5.11 |
2.34 |
2.66 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
4.77 |
2.47 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.40 |
2.79 |
2.88 |
|
No Goal |
2.72 |
5.15 |
2.28 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.04 |
3.52 |
2.58 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
5.15 |
2.57 |
Go to Top
Torino vs Juventus at 03 Apr 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Torino and Juventus for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Torino |
6.25 |
3.02 |
17.1 |
|
Draw |
4.37 |
3.76 |
3.7 |
|
Juventus |
1.53 |
2.48 |
-25.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
2.04 |
-11.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.29 |
1.96 |
7.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Torino, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.1 %, 3.7 %, 7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Torino in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance at home.
Torino, at home, had one win, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Mar |
Sampdoria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Mar |
Sassuolo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
14 Mar |
Inter |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Mar |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Feb |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Atalanta |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Jan |
Fiorentina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Juventus in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance as a guest.
Juventus, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Mar |
Benevento |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Mar |
Cagliari |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Lazio |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Spezia |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Verona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Feb |
Crotone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Napoli |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Roma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Torino is -0.143 and for the Juventus is 0.459.
The home dynamic for the Torino is -0.396 and the dynamic as a guest for the Juventus is 0.419.
The offensive ability for the Torino is 0.227 and for the Juventus is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Torino is -0.339 and for the Juventus is -0.407.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torino and the red line for guest team, Juventus.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Torino |
34% |
26% |
29% |
11% |
|
Juventus |
32% |
23% |
28% |
18% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 0.76 goals and Juventus to score 2.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.89 goals in the game and the guest team Juventus to win by 1.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.17 goals and Juventus to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
3.76 |
|
1 |
6.25 |
2-3 |
2.09 |
|
2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
3.94 |
|
3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |
|
5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
Gg |
2.20 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |
|
NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.20 |
2.51 |
3.45 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.49 |
7.85 |
2.12 |
|
4+ goals |
4.62 |
2.54 |
2.57 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.97 |
4.55 |
2.26 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.20 |
2.51 |
3.45 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.13 |
4.88 |
2.10 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.94 |
3.06 |
3.01 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.62 |
2.54 |
2.57 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.71 |
4.46 |
2.46 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.75 |
2.82 |
2.64 |
|
No Goal |
2.61 |
5.14 |
2.37 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.25 |
3.93 |
2.28 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
5.14 |
2.65 |
Go to Top
Sassuolo vs Roma at 03 Apr 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Roma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sassuolo |
4.29 |
2.50 |
16.7 |
|
Draw |
4.17 |
3.76 |
2.6 |
|
Roma |
1.75 |
2.99 |
-23.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.58 |
2.16 |
-17.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
1.86 |
11.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Sassuolo, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.7 %, 2.6 %, 11.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sassuolo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance at home.
Sassuolo, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Mar |
Torino |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Mar |
Verona |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Udinese |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Mar |
Napoli |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Spezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Roma in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Roma in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance as a guest.
Roma, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Roma was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Mar |
Napoli |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Mar |
Parma |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Mar |
Genoa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Mar |
Fiorentina |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Milan |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Feb |
Benevento |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Udinese |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Juventus |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Sassuolo is 0.016 and for the Roma is -0.2.
The home dynamic for the Sassuolo is -0.066 and the dynamic as a guest for the Roma is 0.071.
The offensive ability for the Sassuolo is 0.597 and for the Roma is -0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sassuolo is -1 and for the Roma is -0.385.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Roma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sassuolo |
29% |
32% |
25% |
15% |
|
Roma |
38% |
22% |
29% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.01 goals and Roma to score 1.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3 goals in the game and the guest team Roma to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.26 goals and Roma to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.17 |
0-1 |
3.44 |
|
1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.39 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.44 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
Gg |
2.26 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.39 |
|
NoG |
1.79 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.