2021 04 02 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Entella vs Monza at 02 April 2021
Brescia vs Pordenone at 02 April 2021
Chievo vs Spal at 02 April 2021
Cosenza vs Ascoli at 02 April 2021
Cremonese vs Empoli at 02 April 2021
Frosinone vs Reggiana at 02 April 2021
Lecce vs Salernitana at 02 April 2021
Pescara vs Pisa at 02 April 2021
Venezia vs Reggina at 02 April 2021


Virtus Entella vs Monza at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Monza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Virtus Entella

5.43

2.76

17.8

Draw

3.50

3.36

1.2

Monza

1.68

2.94

-25.5

Over 2.5

2.12

2.34

-4.4

Under 2.5

1.72

1.75

-1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella, Draw (17.8 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Virtus Entella in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Empoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Cremonese

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Spal

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Ascoli

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Lecce

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Venezia

A

2

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Frosinone

H

2

3

L

O

G


Monza in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance as a guest.
Monza, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Venezia

H

1

4

L

O

G

16 Mar

Reggiana

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Pordenone

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Frosinone

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Cittadella

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Chievo

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Feb

Pisa

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Virtus Entella is -0.341 and for the Monza is -0.022.
The home dynamic for the Virtus Entella is -0.33 and the dynamic as a guest for the Monza is 0.328.
The offensive ability for the Virtus Entella is -1 and for the Monza is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Virtus Entella is 0.116 and for the Monza is -0.037.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Monza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Virtus Entella

26%

40%

23%

11%

Monza

26%

43%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 0.72 goals and Monza to score 1.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the guest team Monza to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.19 goals and Monza to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.48

1

4.59

2-3

1.93

2

3.53

4+

5.18

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.48

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

5.18

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.71

4.16

2.56

2-3 goals

2.75

3.04

3.26

4+ goals

2.88

3.39

2.80

Ov 1.5

2.78

3.12

3.12

Un 1.5

2.71

4.16

2.56

Ov 2.5

2.20

7.53

2.42

Un 2.5

3.41

2.38

3.50

Ov 3.5

2.88

3.39

2.80

Un 3.5

2.73

3.36

2.97

Goal-Goal

3.27

2.38

3.66

No Goal

2.33

6.62

2.38

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

6.51

2.51

NG+Un 2.5

2.39

6.62

2.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Brescia vs Pordenone at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brescia and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brescia

2.22

2.28

-1.2

Draw

2.95

3.58

-6.0

Pordenone

3.59

3.53

0.5

Over 2.5

2.21

2.27

-1.2

Under 2.5

1.66

1.79

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pordenone (0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brescia in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance at home.
Brescia, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Salernitana

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Reggina

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Frosinone

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Venezia

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Cosenza

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Virtus Entella

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Cremonese

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Chievo

H

1

0

W

U

N


Pordenone in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance as a guest.
Pordenone, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Empoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Pescara

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Chievo

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Cittadella

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Spal

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Brescia is 0.571 and for the Pordenone is -0.667.
The home dynamic for the Brescia is -0.189 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pordenone is 0.452.
The offensive ability for the Brescia is 0.545 and for the Pordenone is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brescia is 0.545 and for the Pordenone is -0.63.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brescia and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brescia

24%

36%

26%

15%

Pordenone

34%

38%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.31 goals and Pordenone to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Brescia to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.31 goals and Pordenone to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.41

1

4.69

2-3

1.98

2

3.73

4+

4.90

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.41

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.90

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.36

3.66

3.29

2-3 goals

2.17

3.69

3.74

4+ goals

2.49

3.29

3.40

Ov 1.5

2.25

3.56

3.64

Un 1.5

2.36

3.66

3.29

Ov 2.5

1.93

7.11

2.92

Un 2.5

2.66

2.59

4.22

Ov 3.5

2.49

3.29

3.40

Un 3.5

2.24

3.68

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.84

2.54

3.95

No Goal

1.90

6.21

3.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.94

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

6.21

3.19


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Chievo vs Spal at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chievo and Spal for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chievo

2.03

2.20

-3.8

Draw

3.19

3.50

-2.8

Spal

3.87

3.85

0.1

Over 2.5

2.27

2.40

-2.4

Under 2.5

1.63

1.72

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spal (0.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chievo in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance at home.
Chievo, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Reggina

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Frosinone

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Lecce

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Mar

Vicenza

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Pordenone

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Cosenza

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Monza

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Brescia

A

0

1

L

U

N


Spal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance as a guest.
Spal, as a guest, had 4 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Mar

Pisa

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Mar

Virtus Entella

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Pescara

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Salernitana

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Reggina

H

1

4

L

O

G

20 Feb

Vicenza

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Empoli

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Chievo is -0.27 and for the Spal is 0.037.
The home dynamic for the Chievo is 0.566 and the dynamic as a guest for the Spal is 0.145.
The offensive ability for the Chievo is 0.253 and for the Spal is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chievo is -0.227 and for the Spal is 0.356.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chievo and the red line for guest team, Spal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chievo

22%

40%

21%

16%

Spal

36%

39%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chievo to score 1.36 goals and Spal to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the home team Chievo to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chievo to score 1.31 goals and Spal to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Chievo to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.21

1

4.31

2-3

2.00

2

3.68

4+

5.26

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.58

Un 1.5

3.21

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

5.26

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.15

3.90

3.59

2-3 goals

2.29

3.18

4.00

4+ goals

2.09

3.80

3.88

Ov 1.5

2.23

3.33

3.97

Un 1.5

2.15

3.90

3.59

Ov 2.5

1.80

8.36

3.07

Un 2.5

2.63

2.46

4.67

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.80

3.88

Un 3.5

2.24

3.43

3.83

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.41

4.23

No Goal

1.80

6.29

3.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

6.84

2.90

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

6.29

3.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cosenza vs Ascoli at 02 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cosenza and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 02 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cosenza

2.55

2.31

4.1

Draw

2.86

3.50

-6.4

Ascoli

3.11

3.53

-3.8

Over 2.5

2.40

2.36

0.7

Under 2.5

1.58

1.74

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cosenza, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cosenza in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cosenza in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance at home.
Cosenza, at home, had one win, 9 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Reggiana

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Vicenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Salernitana

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Frosinone

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Brescia

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Chievo

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Lecce

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Feb

Reggina

H

2

2

D

O

G


Ascoli in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 24.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Mar

Cremonese

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Mar

Pescara

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Venezia

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Virtus Entella

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Pisa

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Salernitana

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Reggiana

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Cosenza is -0.111 and for the Ascoli is 0.037.
The home dynamic for the Cosenza is -0.425 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ascoli is -0.353.
The offensive ability for the Cosenza is 0.253 and for the Ascoli is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cosenza is -0.288 and for the Ascoli is -0.281.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cosenza and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cosenza

24%

39%

23%

15%

Ascoli

34%

39%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cosenza to score 1.15 goals and Ascoli to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cosenza to score 1.28 goals and Ascoli to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.30

1

4.48

2-3

1.99

2

3.69

4+

5.15

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.30

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.35

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.