2021 04 02 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bilbao vs Manresa at 03 April 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Obradoiro at 03 April 2021
Gran Canaria vs Zaragoza at 03 April 2021
Real Betis vs Tenerife at 03 April 2021
Real Madrid vs Gipuzkoa at 04 April 2021
Andorra vs Baskonia at 04 April 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Barcelona at 04 April 2021
Valencia vs Joventut Badalona at 04 April 2021
Estudiantes vs Murcia at 04 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Bilbao vs Manresa at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Manresa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bilbao

2.2

5.16

Manresa

1.7

1.24

Bilbao HC

+2.5

8.50

Manresa HC

-2.5

-8.50

Point Line

165.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

A

UCAM Murcia

W

90

82

7

20

W 1

88

83

Mar 21

H

Baskonia

L

72

85

6

20

L 2

76

84

Mar 14

A

Movistar Estudiantes

L

89

95

6

19

L 1

85

96

Mar 7

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

86

84

6

18

W 2

85

89

Feb 27

A

Acunsa GBC

W

97

74

5

18

W 1

93

82

Feb 6

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

73

90

4

18

L 5

82

85

Jan 30

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

72

80

4

17

L 4

70

83

Jan 23

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

73

96

4

16

L 3

67

96

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

H

Real Madrid

L

76

77

12

15

L 2

83

74

Mar 21

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

86

92

12

14

L 1

90

96

Mar 14

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

90

76

12

13

W 1

89

78

Mar 7

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

112

11

13

L 1

84

108

Feb 27

H

UCAM Murcia

W

85

84

11

12

W 1

83

85

Feb 6

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

77

83

10

12

L 2

76

86

Jan 31

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

87

101

10

11

L 1

89

94

Jan 26

A

UCAM Murcia

W

103

93

10

10

W 1

101

95

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Manresa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 83 points and the Manresa 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bilbao

Manresa

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

14.80

16.10

DRB

21.10

22.00

AST-TO

1.03

1.13

TRB

29.80

30.30

FTM

12.90

17.10

BL

2.30

3.40

FTA

16.70

22.60

PF-Fewer

21.10

20.90

ST

5.90

9.00

TO-Fewer

14.30

14.30

Ftper

0.77

0.76

ORBper

0.41

0.38

ORB

8.60

8.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fuenlabrada vs Obradoiro at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Obradoiro for Liga ACB, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fuenlabrada

1.45

1.83

Obradoiro

2.87

2.21

Fuenlabrada HC

-4.5

-2.00

Obradoiro HC

+4.5

2.00

Point Line

162.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

79

81

7

20

L 4

88

76

Mar 24

H

UCAM Murcia

L

70

82

7

19

L 3

69

83

Mar 17

H

MoraBanc Andorra

L

65

75

7

18

L 2

68

78

Mar 14

A

Manresa

L

76

90

7

17

L 1

73

90

Mar 6

H

Acunsa GBC

W

78

74

7

16

W 1

75

82

Feb 28

A

Baskonia

L

74

90

6

16

L 3

78

89

Feb 7

H

Unicaja

L

68

85

6

15

L 2

68

82

Jan 30

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

75

80

6

14

L 1

73

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

Acunsa GBC

W

79

66

8

18

W 1

76

73

Mar 23

H

Real Madrid

L

71

87

7

18

L 8

77

83

Mar 20

H

Unicaja

L

83

85

7

17

L 7

82

82

Mar 13

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

84

91

7

16

L 6

82

88

Mar 7

H

Baskonia

L

78

87

7

15

L 5

82

86

Mar 3

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

87

91

7

14

L 4

83

92

Feb 28

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

71

97

7

13

L 3

74

90

Feb 9

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

71

90

7

12

L 2

74

94

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fuenlabrada (in the first graph) and by Obradoiro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fuenlabrada will expected to score 82 points and the Obradoiro 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fuenlabrada

Obradoiro

FG%

0.50

0.54

ASS

14.10

15.10

DRB

21.10

20.90

AST-TO

1.01

1.10

TRB

31.70

29.60

FTM

15.30

13.70

BL

3.10

2.20

FTA

20.70

17.50

PF-Fewer

21.60

19.00

ST

8.30

5.80

TO-Fewer

13.90

13.70

Ftper

0.74

0.78

ORBper

0.50

0.42

ORB

10.60

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gran Canaria vs Zaragoza at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gran Canaria and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gran Canaria

1.5

2.58

Zaragoza

2.67

1.63

Gran Canaria HC

-4.5

3.50

Zaragoza HC

+4.5

-3.50

Point Line

169.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

A

Baskonia

W

99

78

11

15

W 2

105

77

Mar 21

H

Acunsa GBC

W

90

81

10

15

W 1

86

90

Mar 13

A

Unicaja

L

76

82

9

15

L 1

75

80

Mar 6

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

97

94

9

14

W 2

92

95

Feb 6

H

Manresa

W

83

77

8

14

W 1

80

77

Jan 31

A

Real Madrid

L

80

81

7

14

L 3

87

77

Jan 23

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

81

102

7

13

L 2

80

105

Jan 16

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

87

108

7

12

L 1

90

100

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

104

113

10

16

L 3

99

114

Mar 13

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

88

107

10

15

L 2

98

101

Mar 6

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

95

100

10

14

L 1

92

97

Feb 28

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

85

82

10

13

W 3

84

87

Feb 6

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

83

70

9

13

W 2

81

72

Feb 3

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

79

73

8

13

W 1

75

73

Jan 31

A

Baskonia

L

61

89

7

13

L 1

64

88

Jan 23

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

96

73

7

12

W 3

91

75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gran Canaria (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gran Canaria will expected to score 84 points and the Zaragoza 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gran Canaria

Zaragoza

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

15.20

16.10

DRB

20.90

23.20

AST-TO

1.22

1.24

TRB

29.60

30.10

FTM

12.20

15.20

BL

2.80

2.60

FTA

16.90

20.70

PF-Fewer

19.70

21.00

ST

7.60

6.60

TO-Fewer

12.50

13.00

Ftper

0.72

0.74

ORBper

0.42

0.30

ORB

8.70

7.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Betis vs Tenerife at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and Tenerife for Liga ACB, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Betis

3.25

1.62

Tenerife

1.36

2.60

Real Betis HC

+6.5

-4.00

Tenerife HC

-6.5

4.00

Point Line

161.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

88

78

7

19

W 1

86

76

Mar 21

A

Real Madrid

L

77

95

6

19

L 1

84

91

Mar 14

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

69

61

6

18

W 1

72

64

Mar 7

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

84

86

5

18

L 3

80

89

Feb 28

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

82

85

5

17

L 2

75

85

Feb 6

A

Valencia Basket

L

81

89

5

16

L 1

83

86

Jan 23

H

Unicaja

W

78

75

5

15

W 1

77

73

Jan 17

A

Baskonia

L

76

103

4

15

L 3

80

102

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

H

Valencia Basket

W

90

86

20

5

W 3

92

83

Mar 20

H

UCAM Murcia

W

85

78

19

5

W 2

83

79

Feb 28

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

97

71

18

5

W 1

94

74

Feb 7

H

Baskonia

L

79

81

17

5

L 1

84

80

Jan 30

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

89

83

17

4

W 3

93

87

Jan 24

H

Manresa

W

85

70

16

4

W 2

82

70

Jan 16

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

108

87

15

4

W 1

106

90

Jan 10

A

Acunsa GBC

L

87

89

14

4

L 2

83

98

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Betis (in the first graph) and by Tenerife in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Betis will expected to score 79 points and the Tenerife 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Betis

Tenerife

FG%

0.50

0.54

ASS

14.00

16.40

DRB

20.10

19.50

AST-TO

1.05

1.24

TRB

30.80

28.70

FTM

15.00

12.90

BL

2.40

2.10

FTA

20.30

17.20

PF-Fewer

20.30

22.00

ST

8.20

7.00

TO-Fewer

13.30

13.20

Ftper

0.74

0.75

ORBper

0.53

0.47

ORB

10.70

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Madrid vs Gipuzkoa at 04 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Gipuzkoa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 04 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Madrid

0.06

1.65

Gipuzkoa

10.5

2.53

Real Madrid HC

-17.5

-3.50

Gipuzkoa HC

+17.5

3.50

Point Line

157.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

Manresa

W

77

76

26

1

W 12

74

76

Mar 23

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

87

71

25

1

W 11

85

74

Mar 21

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

95

77

24

1

W 10

94

82

Mar 14

A

Baskonia

W

85

74

23

1

W 9

90