2021 04 02 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lamia vs Volos NFC at 03 April 2021
Larisa vs Panetolikos at 03 April 2021
Atromitos vs Apollon at 03 April 2021
OFI Crete vs Giannina at 03 April 2021
Panathinaikos vs PAOK at 04 April 2021
Aris vs Asteras Tripolis at 04 April 2021


Lamia vs Volos NFC at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lamia and Volos NFC for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lamia

1.93

2.62

-13.6

Draw

3.33

3.62

-2.4

Volos NFC

4.16

2.92

10.2

Over 2.5

2.35

2.31

0.7

Under 2.5

1.59

1.76

-6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Volos NFC, Over 2.5 (10.2 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lamia in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance at home.
Lamia, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Panetolikos

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Atromitos

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Mar

Larisa

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Giannina

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Feb

Larisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

PAOK

A

0

4

L

O

N

18 Feb

Apollon

A

1

0

W

U

N


Volos NFC in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance as a guest.
Volos NFC, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

OFI Crete

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

AEK

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Panetolikos

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 Mar

Olympiakos

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

OFI Crete

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Larisa

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Lamia is 0.444 and for the Volos NFC is 0.133.
The home dynamic for the Lamia is -0.387 and the dynamic as a guest for the Volos NFC is 0.079.
The offensive ability for the Lamia is -0.142 and for the Volos NFC is 0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lamia is 0.545 and for the Volos NFC is 0.059.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lamia and the red line for guest team, Volos NFC.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lamia

32%

30%

24%

14%

Volos NFC

34%

33%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.37 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Lamia to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.18 goals and Volos NFC to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.17

0-1

3.13

1

4.76

2-3

2.10

2

4.02

4+

4.90

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.13

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.23

Ov 3.5

4.90

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.10

2.93

2.98

2-3 goals

2.33

4.72

2.79

4+ goals

2.76

3.09

3.19

Ov 1.5

2.44

4.08

2.90

Un 1.5

3.10

2.93

2.98

Ov 2.5

2.17

6.55

2.59

Un 2.5

3.10

2.70

3.25

Ov 3.5

2.76

3.09

3.19

Un 3.5

2.58

3.79

2.86

Goal-Goal

2.93

2.69

3.48

No Goal

2.41

5.06

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.27

5.27

2.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.55

5.06

2.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Larisa vs Panetolikos at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Larisa and Panetolikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Larisa

2.46

2.22

4.4

Draw

3.13

3.53

-3.6

Panetolikos

3.08

3.75

-5.8

Over 2.5

2.56

2.49

1.1

Under 2.5

1.49

1.67

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Larisa, Over 2.5 (4.4 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Larisa in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance at home.
Larisa, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 20.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Apollon

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Olympiakos

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Mar

Lamia

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

OFI Crete

A

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Lamia

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Atromitos

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

AEK

H

2

4

L

O

G


Panetolikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance as a guest.
Panetolikos, as a guest, had no wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 12.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Lamia

H

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Apollon

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Volos NFC

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Larisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Aris

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Feb

Giannina

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

PAOK

A

0

5

L

O

N


The form score for the Larisa is 0.087 and for the Panetolikos is -0.222.
The home dynamic for the Larisa is -0.745 and the dynamic as a guest for the Panetolikos is -0.494.
The offensive ability for the Larisa is 0.682 and for the Panetolikos is -0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Larisa is -0.202 and for the Panetolikos is -0.089.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Larisa and the red line for guest team, Panetolikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Larisa

38%

18%

24%

19%

Panetolikos

48%

33%

6%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.1 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.24 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Larisa to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.46

0-1

2.51

1

4.65

2-3

2.31

2

5.03

4+

5.92

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.66

4

9.80

Un 1.5

2.51

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

3.11

Ov 3.5

5.92

NoG

1.48

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.57

2.17

3.11

2-3 goals

1.51

7.08

5.14

4+ goals

2.25

4.33

3.07

Ov 1.5

1.66

6.01

4.32

Un 1.5

4.57

2.17

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.63

10.31

3.47

Un 2.5

2.96

2.45

3.95

Ov 3.5

2.25

4.33

3.07

Un 3.5

2.22

3.40

3.92

Goal-Goal

2.06

3.22

4.88

No Goal

2.31

3.70

3.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.67

6.69

3.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.65

3.70

3.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Atromitos vs Apollon at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atromitos and Apollon for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atromitos

1.73

1.81

-2.6

Draw

3.18

3.92

-5.9

Apollon

5.07

5.24

-0.6

Over 2.5

2.32

2.35

-0.6

Under 2.5

1.57

1.74

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atromitos in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance at home.
Atromitos, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Aris

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Larisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

2

3

L

O

G

31 Jan

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N


Apollon in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance as a guest.
Apollon, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Larisa

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Mar

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Mar

AEK

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

OFI Crete

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Volos NFC

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Feb

Lamia

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Atromitos

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

PAOK

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Atromitos is -0.46 and for the Apollon is -0.311.
The home dynamic for the Atromitos is -0.057 and the dynamic as a guest for the Apollon is 0.228.
The offensive ability for the Atromitos is -0.262 and for the Apollon is -0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Atromitos is -0.571 and for the Apollon is -0.63.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atromitos and the red line for guest team, Apollon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atromitos

23%

30%

24%

23%

Apollon

47%

36%

11%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.46 goals and Apollon to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.48 goals and Apollon to score 0.78 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

3.05

1

4.50

2-3

2.05

2

4.08

4+

5.41

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.05

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.34

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.43

Ov 3.5

5.41

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.09

4.05

2-3 goals

1.59

4.55

6.58

4+ goals

1.73

4.40

5.14

Ov 1.5

1.63

4.51

6.11

Un 1.5

2.33

3.09

4.05

Ov 2.5

1.42

10.17

5.02

Un 2.5

2.26

2.69

5.41

Ov 3.5

1.73

4.40

5.14

Un 3.5

1.82

3.83

5.26

Goal-Goal

2.13

2.77

5.89

No Goal

1.63

5.55

4.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

7.26

4.36

NG+Un 2.5

1.83

5.55

4.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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OFI Crete vs Giannina at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between OFI Crete and Giannina for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 03 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

OFI Crete

2.17

4.74

-25.0

Draw

3.32

3.40

-0.7

Giannina

3.31

2.02

19.3

Over 2.5

2.00

3.70

-23.0

Under 2.5

1.81

1.37

17.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Giannina, Under 2.5 (19.3 %, 17.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

OFI Crete in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance at home.
OFI Crete, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 23.1% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Volos NFC

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Larisa

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Volos NFC

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

AEK

H

0

2

L

U

N


Giannina in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Giannina in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance as a guest.
Giannina, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Atromitos

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Feb

PAOK

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Feb

Panetolikos

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Atromitos

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the OFI Crete is -0.786 and for the Giannina is 0.57.
The home dynamic for the OFI Crete is -0.557 and the dynamic as a guest for the Giannina is 0.071.
The offensive ability for the OFI Crete is -0.227 and for the Giannina is 0.304.
Finally, the defensive ability for the OFI Crete is -0.545 and for the Giannina is 0.726.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, OFI Crete and the red line for guest team, Giannina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

OFI Crete

42%

55%

-3%

6%

Giannina

31%

31%

33%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.4 goals and Giannina to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team OFI Crete to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 0.67 goals and Giannina to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.79 goals in the game and the guest team Giannina to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.58

0-1

2.31

1

3.32

2-3

1.96

2

3.37

4+

17.24

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.76

4

27.03

Un 1.5

2.31

5

55.56

Ov 2.5

3.70

6+

333.33

Un 2.5

1.37

Gg

2.52

Ov 3.5

17.24

NoG

1.66

Un 3.5

1.06

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.28