# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lamia vs Volos NFC at 03 April 2021**** Larisa vs Panetolikos at 03 April 2021**** Atromitos vs Apollon at 03 April 2021**** OFI Crete vs Giannina at 03 April 2021**** Panathinaikos vs PAOK at 04 April 2021**** Aris vs Asteras Tripolis at 04 April 2021**

###
Lamia vs Volos NFC at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lamia** and **Volos NFC** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **03 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lamia |
1.93 |
2.62 |
-13.6 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.62 |
-2.4 |

Volos NFC |
4.16 |
2.92 |
10.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.31 |
0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.76 |
-6.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Volos NFC, Over 2.5 (10.2 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lamia** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lamia** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance** at home**.

Lamia,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Panetolikos |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Mar |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Giannina |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
PAOK |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Volos NFC** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Volos NFC** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance** as a guest**.

Volos NFC,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
AEK |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Panetolikos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Apollon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Lamia** is **0.444** and for the **Volos NFC** is **0.133.**

The home dynamic for the **Lamia** is **-0.387** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Volos NFC** is **0.079.**

The offensive ability for the **Lamia** is **-0.142** and for the **Volos NFC** is **0.13.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Lamia** is **0.545** and for the **Volos NFC** is **0.059.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lamia** and the red line for guest team, **Volos NFC. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lamia |
32% |
30% |
24% |
14% |

Volos NFC |
34% |
33% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lamia** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Volos NFC** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and the home team **Lamia ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lamia** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Volos NFC** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.17 |
0-1 |
3.13 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.90 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.23 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.90 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.10 |
2.93 |
2.98 |

2-3 goals |
2.33 |
4.72 |
2.79 |

4+ goals |
2.76 |
3.09 |
3.19 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
4.08 |
2.90 |

Un 1.5 |
3.10 |
2.93 |
2.98 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.55 |
2.59 |

Un 2.5 |
3.10 |
2.70 |
3.25 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.76 |
3.09 |
3.19 |

Un 3.5 |
2.58 |
3.79 |
2.86 |

Goal-Goal |
2.93 |
2.69 |
3.48 |

No Goal |
2.41 |
5.06 |
2.59 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.27 |
2.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
5.06 |
2.67 |

####
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###
Larisa vs Panetolikos at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Larisa** and **Panetolikos** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **03 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Larisa |
2.46 |
2.22 |
4.4 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.53 |
-3.6 |

Panetolikos |
3.08 |
3.75 |
-5.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.56 |
2.49 |
1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.49 |
1.67 |
-7.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Larisa, Over 2.5 (4.4 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Larisa** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Larisa** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance** at home**.

Larisa,** at home**, had one win, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 20.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Apollon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Mar |
Lamia |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
OFI Crete |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Panetolikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Feb |
AEK |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Panetolikos** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Panetolikos** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance** as a guest**.

Panetolikos,** as a guest**, had no wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 12.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Apollon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Larisa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Aris |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Giannina |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
PAOK |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Larisa** is **0.087** and for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.222.**

The home dynamic for the **Larisa** is **-0.745** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.494.**

The offensive ability for the **Larisa** is **0.682** and for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.591.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Larisa** is **-0.202** and for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.089.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Larisa** and the red line for guest team, **Panetolikos. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Larisa |
38% |
18% |
24% |
19% |

Panetolikos |
48% |
33% |
6% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Larisa** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Panetolikos** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.04** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Larisa** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Panetolikos** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.08** goals in the game and the home team **Larisa ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
5.46 |
0-1 |
2.51 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.31 |

2 |
5.03 |
4+ |
5.92 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.66 |

4 |
9.80 |
Un 1.5 |
2.51 |

5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
3.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.92 |

NoG |
1.48 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.57 |
2.17 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
1.51 |
7.08 |
5.14 |

4+ goals |
2.25 |
4.33 |
3.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.66 |
6.01 |
4.32 |

Un 1.5 |
4.57 |
2.17 |
3.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |
10.31 |
3.47 |

Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.45 |
3.95 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.25 |
4.33 |
3.07 |

Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.40 |
3.92 |

Goal-Goal |
2.06 |
3.22 |
4.88 |

No Goal |
2.31 |
3.70 |
3.37 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
6.69 |
3.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
3.70 |
3.55 |

####
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###
Atromitos vs Apollon at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Atromitos** and **Apollon** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **03 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Atromitos |
1.73 |
1.81 |
-2.6 |

Draw |
3.18 |
3.92 |
-5.9 |

Apollon |
5.07 |
5.24 |
-0.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.35 |
-0.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.74 |
-6.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Atromitos** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atromitos** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance** at home**.

Atromitos,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Aris |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Apollon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Apollon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance** as a guest**.

Apollon,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Larisa |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Panetolikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
AEK |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
OFI Crete |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Atromitos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
PAOK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Atromitos** is **-0.46** and for the **Apollon** is **-0.311.**

The home dynamic for the **Atromitos** is **-0.057** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Apollon** is **0.228.**

The offensive ability for the **Atromitos** is **-0.262** and for the **Apollon** is **-0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Atromitos** is **-0.571** and for the **Apollon** is **-0.63.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Atromitos** and the red line for guest team, **Apollon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Atromitos |
23% |
30% |
24% |
23% |

Apollon |
47% |
36% |
11% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Atromitos** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Apollon** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and the home team **Atromitos ** to win by **0.76** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Atromitos** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Apollon** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and the home team **Atromitos ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
3.05 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
5.41 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
7.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.05 |

5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.75 |

Gg |
2.43 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |

NoG |
1.70 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.33 |
3.09 |
4.05 |

2-3 goals |
1.59 |
4.55 |
6.58 |

4+ goals |
1.73 |
4.40 |
5.14 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.63 |
4.51 |
6.11 |

Un 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.09 |
4.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.42 |
10.17 |
5.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.69 |
5.41 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.73 |
4.40 |
5.14 |

Un 3.5 |
1.82 |
3.83 |
5.26 |

Goal-Goal |
2.13 |
2.77 |
5.89 |

No Goal |
1.63 |
5.55 |
4.86 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
7.26 |
4.36 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
5.55 |
4.40 |

####
Go to Top

###
OFI Crete vs Giannina at 03 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **OFI Crete** and **Giannina** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **03 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

OFI Crete |
2.17 |
4.74 |
-25.0 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.40 |
-0.7 |

Giannina |
3.31 |
2.02 |
19.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
3.70 |
-23.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.37 |
17.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Giannina, Under 2.5 (19.3 %, 17.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**OFI Crete** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **OFI Crete** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance** at home**.

OFI Crete,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 23.1% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Giannina** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Giannina** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance** as a guest**.

Giannina,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Atromitos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
OFI Crete |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Feb |
PAOK |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Panetolikos |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.786** and for the **Giannina** is **0.57.**

The home dynamic for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.557** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Giannina** is **0.071.**

The offensive ability for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.227** and for the **Giannina** is **0.304.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.545** and for the **Giannina** is **0.726.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **OFI Crete** and the red line for guest team, **Giannina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

OFI Crete |
42% |
55% |
-3% |
6% |

Giannina |
31% |
31% |
33% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **OFI Crete** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Giannina** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **OFI Crete ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **OFI Crete** to score **0.67 ** goals and **Giannina** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **1.79** goals in the game and the guest team **Giannina ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.58 |
0-1 |
2.31 |

1 |
3.32 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.37 |
4+ |
17.24 |

3 |
4.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.76 |

4 |
27.03 |
Un 1.5 |
2.31 |

5 |
55.56 |
Ov 2.5 |
3.70 |

6+ |
333.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.37 |

Gg |
2.52 |
Ov 3.5 |
17.24 |

NoG |
1.66 |
Un 3.5 |
1.06 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.28 |
3.36 |