2021 04 02 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fethiye Belediye vs Turk Telekom at 03 April 2021
OGM Ormanspor vs Buyukcekmece at 03 April 2021
Gaziantep vs Darussafaka at 03 April 2021
Bursaspor vs Efes at 04 April 2021
Galatasaray vs Afyon Belediye at 04 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Fethiye Belediye vs Turk Telekom at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fethiye Belediye and Turk Telekom for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fethiye Belediye

6.5

2.04

Turk Telekom

1.1

1.96

Fethiye Belediye HC

+13.5

1.50

Turk Telekom HC

-13.5

-1.50

Point Line

165.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fethiye Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

A

Darussafaka

L

81

96

6

20

L 2

84

95

Mar 20

H

Tofas

L

76

101

6

19

L 1

76

95

Mar 13

A

Socar Spor

W

79

69

6

18

W 1

79

70

Mar 7

H

Gaziantep

L

60

90

5

18

L 3

65

97

Feb 28

A

Anadolu Efes

L

85

101

5

17

L 2

92

91

Feb 10

A

Besiktas

L

65

76

5

16

L 1

65

73

Feb 7

H

Ormanspor

W

98

89

5

15

W 1

90

96

Jan 30

A

Galatasaray

L

68

71

4

15

L 4

64

71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

H

Besiktas

L

85

94

15

11

L 1

85

90

Mar 20

A

Ormanspor

W

97

90

15

10

W 2

89

97

Mar 14

H

Galatasaray

W

81

77

14

10

W 1

76

77

Mar 7

A

Fenerbahce

L

77

99

13

10

L 1

82

92

Feb 27

H

Bursaspor

W

83

82

13

9

W 1

82

85

Feb 9

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

69

80

12

9

L 1

74

77

Feb 6

H

Afyon

W

89

86

12

8

W 3

85

85

Jan 31

A

Buyukcekmece

W

86

75

11

8

W 2

81

75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fethiye Belediye and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Turk Telekom.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Turk Telekom and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fethiye Belediye.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fethiye Belediye (in the first graph) and by Turk Telekom in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fethiye Belediye will expected to score 79 points and the Turk Telekom 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fethiye Belediye

Turk Telekom

FG%

0.51

0.54

ASS

19.30

17.80

DRB

22.50

20.60

AST-TO

1.43

1.78

TRB

31.50

27.40

FTM

11.90

13.10

BL

2.50

1.30

FTA

16.30

17.30

PF-Fewer

18.80

17.60

ST

5.70

5.20

TO-Fewer

13.50

10.00

Ftper

0.73

0.76

ORBper

0.40

0.33

ORB

9.00

6.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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OGM Ormanspor vs Buyukcekmece at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between OGM Ormanspor and Buyukcekmece for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

OGM Ormanspor

2.27

2.09

Buyukcekmece

1.62

1.91

OGM Ormanspor HC

+2.5

1.50

Buyukcekmece HC

-2.5

-1.50

Point Line

166.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of OGM Ormanspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

Bahcesehir

L

65

92

6

20

L 3

65

93

Mar 20

H

Turk Telekom

L

90

97

6

19

L 2

88

103

Mar 13

A

Darussafaka

L

68

90

6

18

L 1

70

89

Mar 6

H

Tofas

W

77

76

6

17

W 1

77

71

Feb 27

A

Socar Spor

L

76

83

5

17

L 7

76

84

Feb 11

H

Gaziantep

L

81

82

5

16

L 6

88

88

Feb 7

A

Fethiye

L

89

98

5

15

L 5

82

104

Feb 1

H

Besiktas

L

68

92

5

14

L 4

68

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

H

Galatasaray

W

105

101

9

17

W 1

99

100

Mar 21

A

Fenerbahce

L

70

81

8

17

L 3

75

76

Mar 14

H

Bursaspor

L

68

73

8

16

L 2

67

76

Mar 6

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

82

117

8

15

L 1

88

112

Feb 28

H

Afyon

W

95

83

8

14

W 1

90

82

Feb 9

H

Anadolu Efes

L

83

94

7

14

L 7

90

85

Feb 6

A

Bahcesehir

L

74

83

7

13

L 6

74

84

Jan 31

H

Turk Telekom

L

75

86

7

12

L 5

74

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by OGM Ormanspor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by OGM Ormanspor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by OGM Ormanspor (in the first graph) and by Buyukcekmece in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, OGM Ormanspor will expected to score 82 points and the Buyukcekmece 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

OGM Ormanspor

Buyukcekmece

FG%

0.52

0.50

ASS

17.80

18.20

DRB

20.20

22.40

AST-TO

1.58

1.52

TRB

27.70

32.00

FTM

14.40

14.40

BL

2.50

1.90

FTA

19.40

18.30

PF-Fewer

16.30

20.70

ST

4.50

6.00

TO-Fewer

11.30

12.00

Ftper

0.74

0.79

ORBper

0.37

0.43

ORB

7.50

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gaziantep vs Darussafaka at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gaziantep and Darussafaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gaziantep

1.6

1.84

Darussafaka

2.3

2.18

Gaziantep HC

-3.5

-2.00

Darussafaka HC

+3.5

2.00

Point Line

152.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gaziantep are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

Tofas

L

72

84

13

13

L 1

72

79

Mar 21

H

Socar Spor

W

76

64

13

12

W 1

76

65

Mar 14

A

Anadolu Efes

L

63

102

12

12

L 1

68

92

Mar 7

A

Fethiye

W

90

60

12

11

W 1

83

64

Feb 28

H

Besiktas

L

77

84

11

11

L 1

77

80

Feb 11

A

Ormanspor

W

82

81

11

10

W 4

75

87

Feb 6

H

Galatasaray

W

68

61

10

10

W 3

64

61

Jan 31

A

Fenerbahce

W

102

97

9

10

W 2

109

91

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

H

Fethiye

W

96

81

14

12

W 1

89

86

Mar 20

A

Besiktas

L

93

98

13

12

L 1

93

94

Mar 13

H

Ormanspor

W

90

68

13

11

W 2

83

73

Mar 6

A

Galatasaray

W

98

87

12

11

W 1

92

87

Feb 28

H

Fenerbahce

L

64

66

11

11

L 1

68

62

Feb 10

A

Bursaspor

W

70

68

11

10

W 2

69

71

Feb 6

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

86

77

10

10

W 1

93

74

Feb 3

A

Socar Spor

L

70

78

9

10

L 2

70

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gaziantep and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gaziantep.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gaziantep (in the first graph) and by Darussafaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gaziantep will expected to score 77 points and the Darussafaka 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gaziantep

Darussafaka

FG%

0.52

0.51

ASS

20.50

18.70

DRB

23.70

21.50

AST-TO

1.78

1.58

TRB

33.20

32.90

FTM

12.10

16.40

BL

2.50

2.90

FTA

17.70

21.00

PF-Fewer

20.40

23.60

ST

6.80

8.50

TO-Fewer

11.50

11.80

Ftper

0.69

0.78

ORBper

0.40

0.53

ORB

9.50

11.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bursaspor vs Efes at 04 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bursaspor and Efes for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 04 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bursaspor

4.3

Inf

Efes

1.21

1

Bursaspor HC

+9.5

13

Efes HC

-9.5

-13

Point Line

164.5

161

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

85

84

11

15

W 4

92

80

Mar 21

H

Afyon

W

81

75

10

15

W 3

77

74

Mar 14

A

Buyukcekmece

W

73

68

9

15

W 2

69

68

Mar 7

H

Bahcesehir

W

67

64

8

15

W 1

67

64

Feb 27

A

Turk Telekom

L

82

83

7

15

L 3

80

88

Feb 10

H

Darussafaka

L

68

70

7

14

L 2

70

69

Feb 7

A

Tofas

L

77

84

7

13

L 1

77

79

Jan 30

H

Socar Spor

W

95

89

7

12

W 1

95

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

H

Socar Spor

W

87

80

25

1

W 3

87

81

Mar 21

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

98

89

24

1

W 2

106

85

Mar 14

H

Gaziantep

W

102

63

23

1

W 1

110

68

Mar 7

A

Afyon

L

85

103

22

1

L 1

81

102

Feb 28

H

Fethiye

W

101

85

22

0

W 21

93

90

Feb 9

A

Buyukcekmece

W

94

83

21

0

W 20

89

84

Feb 7

H

Besiktas

W

84

80

20

0

W 19

84

77

Jan 31

A

Bahcesehir

W

100

76

19

0

W 18

100

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Efes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Efes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bursaspor (in the first graph) and by Efes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bursaspor will expected to score 77 points and the Efes 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bursaspor

Efes

FG%

0.53

0.58

ASS

19.00

22.40

DRB

20.80

23.90

AST-TO

1.65

2.43

TRB

28.70

33.10

FTM

12.40

12.70

BL

2.50

3.30

FTA

16.70

16.80

PF-Fewer

21.70

15.70

ST

6.10

7.30

TO-Fewer

11.50

9.20

Ftper

0.74

0.76

ORBper

0.38

0.38

ORB

7.80

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Galatasaray vs Afyon Belediye at 04 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Galatasaray and Afyon Belediye for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 04 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Galatasaray

1.7

2.83

Afyon Belediye

2.12

1.55

Galatasaray HC

-2.5

4.50

Afyon Belediye HC

+2.5

-4.50

Point Line

173.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galatasaray are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

A

Buyukcekmece

L

101

105

8

18

L 1

96

106

Mar 20

H

Bahcesehir

W

101

90

8

17

W 1

101

90

Mar 14

A

Turk Telekom

L

77

81

7

17

L 5

76

86

Mar 6

H

Darussafaka

L

87

98

7

16

L 4

90

96

Feb 27

A

Tofas

L

89