2021 04 02 VTB United League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Avtodor vs Nizhny Novgorod at 03 April 2021
Enisey vs Unics at 03 April 2021
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Astana at 03 April 2021
Parma Perm vs Tsmoki Minsk at 04 April 2021
Zenit Saint Petersburg vs CSKA Moscow at 05 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Avtodor vs Nizhny Novgorod at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Avtodor and Nizhny Novgorod for VTB United League, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Avtodor	1.7	1.82
Nizhny Novgorod	2.12	2.22
Avtodor HC	-2.5	-2.00
Nizhny Novgorod HC	+2.5	2.00
Point Line	167.5	164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Avtodor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 23	H	Zenit Saint Petersburg	L	62	89	8	12	L 3	70	86
Mar 13	A	Lokomotiv Kuban	L	89	104	8	11	L 2	86	93
Mar 7	A	Kalev/Cramo	L	77	85	8	10	L 1	74	90
Feb 28	H	Tsmoki Minsk	W	113	66	8	9	W 1	108	75
Feb 11	A	Nizhny Novgorod	L	80	86	7	9	L 2	81	88
Feb 7	H	UNICS	L	97	110	7	8	L 1	106	110
Jan 31	A	Astana	W	92	83	7	7	W 1	88	89
Jan 23	A	Zielona Gora	L	64	77	6	7	L 2	61	73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 28	A	Enisey	W	96	86	11	7	W 3	90	92
Mar 14	H	Tsmoki Minsk	W	78	57	10	7	W 2	74	64
Mar 7	H	Astana	W	75	73	9	7	W 1	72	78
Feb 27	A	UNICS	L	56	87	8	7	L 1	61	87
Feb 11	H	Avtodor	W	86	80	8	6	W 2	82	79
Feb 7	A	Zielona Gora	W	97	93	7	6	W 1	92	88
Feb 2	A	Zenit Saint Petersburg	L	73	78	6	6	L 5	83	75
Jan 23	H	UNICS	L	66	91	6	5	L 4	72	91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Avtodor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Avtodor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Avtodor (in the first graph) and by Nizhny Novgorod in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Avtodor will expected to score 83 points and the Nizhny Novgorod 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Avtodor	Nizhny Novgorod
FG%	0.52	0.54
ASS	16.90	18.70
DRB	23.00	20.70
AST-TO	1.29	1.47
TRB	32.00	29.30
FTM	15.50	13.10
BL	2.40	1.50
FTA	20.60	18.00
PF-Fewer	20.40	23.50
ST	5.70	6.80
TO-Fewer	13.10	12.70
Ftper	0.75	0.73
ORBper	0.40	0.42
ORB	9.10	8.60

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Enisey vs Unics at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Enisey and Unics for VTB United League, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Enisey	5.4	7.15
Unics	1.14	1.16
Enisey HC	+11.5	10.00
Unics HC	-11.5	-10.00
Point Line	162.5	161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Enisey are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 28	H	Nizhny Novgorod	L	86	96	4	15	L 5	88	98
Mar 20	A	Zenit Saint Petersburg	L	71	84	4	14	L 4	80	81
Mar 11	A	Zielona Gora	L	79	117	4	13	L 3	75	110
Feb 27	A	Lokomotiv Kuban	L	98	100	4	12	L 2	95	90
Feb 10	H	CSKA Moscow	L	80	91	4	11	L 1	86	79
Feb 4	A	Astana	W	78	60	4	10	W 3	75	64
Feb 1	A	Kalev/Cramo	W	86	75	3	10	W 2	82	79
Jan 24	H	Astana	W	77	76	2	10	W 1	74	82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 27	A	CSKA Moscow	L	86	102	15	5	L 1	93	88
Mar 13	A	Kalev/Cramo	W	76	49	15	4	W 10	72	52
Feb 27	H	Nizhny Novgorod	W	87	56	14	4	W 9	88	57
Feb 10	H	Zenit Saint Petersburg	W	59	58	13	4	W 8	67	56
Feb 7	A	Avtodor	W	110	97	12	4	W 7	104	96
Jan 30	A	Tsmoki Minsk	W	76	66	11	4	W 6	72	75
Jan 23	A	Nizhny Novgorod	W	91	66	10	4	W 5	92	68
Jan 17	A	BC Khimki	W	93	87	9	4	W 4	93	83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Enisey and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Enisey.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Enisey (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Enisey will expected to score 75 points and the Unics 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Var	Enisey	Unics
FG%	0.53	0.55
ASS	15.10	16.00
DRB	19.80	20.80
AST-TO	0.98	1.34
TRB	27.00	29.90
FTM	17.30	14.00
BL	0.60	1.70
FTA	23.60	18.40
PF-Fewer	24.50	22.20
ST	5.80	8.30
TO-Fewer	15.40	11.90
Ftper	0.73	0.76
ORBper	0.36	0.44
ORB	7.20	9.10

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Lokomotiv Kuban vs Astana at 03 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and Astana for VTB United League, which will take place on 03 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Lokomotiv Kuban	1.08	1.07
Astana	7.4	15.67
Lokomotiv Kuban HC	-15.5	-11.50
Astana HC	+15.5	11.50
Point Line	170.5	166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 28	A	Kalev/Cramo	W	105	94	13	6	W 5	100	99
Mar 18	H	Parma	W	85	68	12	6	W 4	86	70
Mar 13	H	Avtodor	W	104	89	11	6	W 3	99	88
Feb 27	H	Enisey	W	100	98	10	6	W 2	94	105
Feb 8	A	BC Khimki	W	92	90	9	6	W 1	92	86
Jan 31	A	Zenit Saint Petersburg	L	85	90	8	6	L 1	96	87
Jan 16	A	Nizhny Novgorod	W	94	73	8	5	W 1	96	75
Jan 9	A	Astana	L	82	86	7	5	L 2	78	92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Astana are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 29	H	Parma	L	80	84	5	14	L 1	81	86
Mar 21	A	Tsmoki Minsk	W	80	78	5	13	W 1	76	88
Mar 7	A	Nizhny Novgorod	L	73	75	4	13	L 6	74	77
Mar 1	H	Kalev/Cramo	L	61	77	4	12	L 5	58	81
Feb 12	H	BC Khimki	L	77	82	4	11	L 4	77	78
Feb 4	H	Enisey	L	60	78	4	10	L 3	56	84
Jan 31	H	Avtodor	L	83	92	4	9	L 2	79	91
Jan 24	A	Enisey	L	76	77	4	8	L 1	71	82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Astana.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Astana and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by Astana in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 88 points and the Astana 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.

Var	Lokomotiv Kuban	Astana
FG%	0.55	0.52
ASS	21.60	18.40
DRB	25.30	21.60
AST-TO	1.76	1.39
TRB	34.10	29.30
FTM	17.20	13.20
BL	3.60	2.50
FTA	22.40	18.30
PF-Fewer	20.50	21.30
ST	6.30	5.70
TO-Fewer	12.30	13.20
Ftper	0.77	0.72
ORBper	0.35	0.35
ORB	8.80	7.60

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Parma Perm vs Tsmoki Minsk at 04 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Parma Perm and Tsmoki Minsk for VTB United League, which will take place on 04 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Parma Perm	1.07	1.23
Tsmoki Minsk	7.7	5.30
Parma Perm HC	-15.5	-8.50
Tsmoki Minsk HC	+15.5	8.50
Point Line	155.5	156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Parma Perm are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 29	A	Astana	W	84	80	8	11	W 1	80	86
Mar 18	A	Lokomotiv Kuban	L	68	85	7	11	L 3	66	76
Mar 15	A	Zenit Saint Petersburg	L	84	89	7	10	L 2	95	86
Mar 8	A	Zielona Gora	L	92	95	7	9	L 1	87	90
Feb 12	A	Kalev/Cramo	W	85	72	7	8	W 2	81	76
Feb 9	H	Kalev/Cramo	W	80	72	6	8	W 1	76	76
Feb 1	H	BC Khimki	L	69	72	5	8	L 1	69	69
Jan 17	A	Enisey	W	86	52	5	7	W 1	80	56

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tsmoki Minsk are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 28	A	BC Khimki	L	65	89	2	17	L 9	65	85
Mar 21	H	Astana	L	78	80	2	16	L 8	75	86
Mar 14	A	Nizhny Novgorod	L	57	78	2	15	L 7	58	80
Mar 7	A	CSKA Moscow	L	67	101	2	14	L 6	72	88
Feb 28	A	Avtodor	L	66	113	2	13	L 5	63	112
Feb 7	H	Zenit Saint Petersburg	L	73	99	2	12	L 4	83	96
Jan 30	H	UNICS	L	66	76	2	11	L 3	72	76
Jan 24	H	Kalev/Cramo	L	72	80	2	10	L 2	69	85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Parma Perm and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tsmoki Minsk.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tsmoki Minsk and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Parma Perm.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Parma Perm (in the first graph) and by Tsmoki Minsk in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Parma Perm will expected to score 82 points and the Tsmoki Minsk 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Var	Parma Perm	Tsmoki Minsk
FG%	0.56	0.49
ASS	20.40	14.90
DRB	20.50	20.10
AST-TO	1.43	1.01
TRB	27.10	28.60
FTM	14.10	11.30
BL	2.30	1.60
FTA	18.30	15.50
PF-Fewer	21.80	22.20
ST	7.00	6.10
TO-Fewer	14.30	14.70
Ftper	0.77	0.73
ORBper	0.32	0.42
ORB	6.50	8.50

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs CSKA Moscow at 05 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit Saint Petersburg and CSKA Moscow for VTB United League, which will take place on 05 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Zenit Saint Petersburg	2.3	4.67
CSKA Moscow	1.6	1.27
Zenit Saint Petersburg HC	+3.5	8.00
CSKA Moscow HC	-3.5	-8.00
Point Line	156.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit Saint Petersburg are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 23	A	Avtodor	W	89	62	18	3	W 3	85	61
Mar 20	H	Enisey	W	84	71	17	3	W 2	78	76
Mar 15	H	Parma	W	89	84	16	3	W 1	90	86
Mar 8	H	BC Khimki	L	78