2021 04 05 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Swansea vs Preston at 05 April 2021
Coventry vs Bristol City at 05 April 2021
Luton vs Barnsley at 05 April 2021
Middlesbrough vs Watford at 05 April 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs QPR at 05 April 2021
Reading vs Derby at 05 April 2021
Rotherham vs Wycombe at 05 April 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Cardiff at 05 April 2021
Stoke vs Millwall at 05 April 2021
Blackburn vs Bournemouth at 05 April 2021


Swansea vs Preston at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and Preston for Championship (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swansea

1.97

1.85

3.3

Draw

3.29

3.98

-5.3

Preston

4.13

4.76

-3.2

Over 2.5

2.35

2.05

6.2

Under 2.5

1.60

1.95

-11.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swansea, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swansea in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Birmingham

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Bournemouth

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Luton

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Bristol City

H

1

3

L

O

G


Preston in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance as a guest.
Preston, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Norwich

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Middlesbrough

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Bournemouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Millwall

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Huddersfield

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Feb

QPR

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Swansea is -0.234 and for the Preston is -0.784.
The home dynamic for the Swansea is 0.559 and the dynamic as a guest for the Preston is -0.286.
The offensive ability for the Swansea is -0.604 and for the Preston is -0.256.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swansea is -0.547 and for the Preston is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, Preston.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swansea

19%

30%

29%

22%

Preston

36%

42%

13%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.36 goals and Preston to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.55 goals and Preston to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.91

1

5.35

2-3

1.95

2

3.89

4+

4.35

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.91

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.71

3.28

2-3 goals

1.66

4.11

6.42

4+ goals

1.90

3.97

4.51

Ov 1.5

1.73

4.07

5.68

Un 1.5

2.35

3.71

3.28

Ov 2.5

1.51

8.40

4.59

Un 2.5

2.38

2.64

4.98

Ov 3.5

1.90

3.97

4.51

Un 3.5

1.84

3.97

4.87

Goal-Goal

2.12

2.82

5.73

No Goal

1.64

7.01

4.07

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.61

6.74

4.34

NG+Un 2.5

1.80

7.01

3.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Coventry vs Bristol City at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Coventry and Bristol City for Championship (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Coventry

2.04

2.24

-4.4

Draw

3.35

3.73

-3.0

Bristol City

3.82

3.50

2.4

Over 2.5

2.24

2.17

1.4

Under 2.5

1.66

1.85

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol City, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Coventry in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance at home.
Coventry, at home, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 49.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

QPR

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Mar

Wycombe

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Mar

Luton

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Middlesbrough

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Feb

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Brentford

H

2

0

W

U

N


Bristol City in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance as a guest.
Bristol City, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 45.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Stoke

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Rotherham

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Mar

Blackburn

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Birmingham

A

3

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

QPR

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Bournemouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Swansea

A

3

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Middlesbrough

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Coventry is -0.355 and for the Bristol City is -0.624.
The home dynamic for the Coventry is 0.031 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bristol City is -0.031.
The offensive ability for the Coventry is -0.604 and for the Bristol City is -0.704.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Coventry is -0.021 and for the Bristol City is 0.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Coventry and the red line for guest team, Bristol City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Coventry

26%

32%

24%

18%

Bristol City

35%

36%

17%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.37 goals and Bristol City to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Coventry to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.35 goals and Bristol City to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.39

1

4.88

2-3

2.08

2

4.10

4+

4.46

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.39

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

3.28

3.21

2-3 goals

2.02

4.17

3.78

4+ goals

2.33

3.61

3.39

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.98

3.65

Un 1.5

2.61

3.28

3.21

Ov 2.5

1.85

7.42

3.07

Un 2.5

2.71

2.63

3.99

Ov 3.5

2.33

3.61

3.39

Un 3.5

2.21

3.78

3.54

Goal-Goal

2.61

2.72

4.01

No Goal

1.97

5.76

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.90

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.76

3.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Luton vs Barnsley at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Luton and Barnsley for Championship (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Luton

3.43

2.44

11.8

Draw

3.26

3.60

-2.9

Barnsley

2.21

3.21

-14.1

Over 2.5

2.21

2.23

-0.4

Under 2.5

1.68

1.81

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Luton (11.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Luton in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance at home.
Luton, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Derby

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Preston

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Coventry

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Swansea

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Norwich

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Nott’m Forest

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Feb

Millwall

H

1

1

D

U

G


Barnsley in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance as a guest.
Barnsley, as a guest, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 52.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Reading

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Sheffield Weds

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Mar

Wycombe

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Bournemouth

A

3

2

W

O

G

10 Mar

Derby

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Birmingham

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

QPR

A

3

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Millwall

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Luton is 0.075 and for the Barnsley is 0.224.
The home dynamic for the Luton is 0.031 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barnsley is 0.533.
The offensive ability for the Luton is -0.465 and for the Barnsley is 0.641.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Luton is 0.4 and for the Barnsley is -0.144.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Luton and the red line for guest team, Barnsley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Luton

27%

36%

20%

17%

Barnsley

33%

38%

18%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Luton to score 0.96 goals and Barnsley to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the guest team Barnsley to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Luton to score 1.28 goals and Barnsley to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.28

1

4.61

2-3

2.10

2

4.05

4+

4.55

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.28

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.63

3.47

3.02

2-3 goals

2.38

3.58

3.33

4+ goals

2.34

3.86

3.19

Ov 1.5

2.37

3.66

3.28

Un 1.5

2.63

3.47

3.02

Ov 2.5

1.98

7.88

2.72

Un 2.5

3.02

2.50

3.73

Ov 3.5

2.34

3.86

3.19

Un 3.5

2.47

3.53

3.20

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.59

3.73

No Goal

2.13

5.77

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

6.32

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

5.77

2.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Middlesbrough vs Watford at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Watford for Championship (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Middlesbrough

3.51

2.43

12.7

Draw

3.18

3.69

-4.3

Watford

2.21

3.15

-13.5

Over 2.5

2.39

2.19

3.8

Under 2.5

1.58

1.84

-8.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Middlesbrough, Over 2.5 (12.7 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance at home.
Middlesbrough, at home, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 57.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Bournemouth

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Millwall

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Preston

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Stoke

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Swansea

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Coventry

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Cardiff

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Bristol City

H

1

3

L

O

G


Watford in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance as a guest.
Watford, as a guest, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 49.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Birmingham

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Rotherham

A

4

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Cardiff

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Nott’m Forest

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Wycombe

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Feb

Blackburn

A

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Middlesbrough is 0.019 and for the Watford is 1.
The home dynamic for the Middlesbrough is 0.163 and the dynamic as a guest for the Watford is 0.427.
The offensive ability for the Middlesbrough is 0.465 and for the Watford is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Middlesbrough is -0.053 and for the Watford is 1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Watford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Middlesbrough

30%

32%

19%

19%

Watford

36%

32%

18%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 0.9 goals and Watford to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the guest team Watford to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.28 goals and Watford to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

3.14

1

4.74

2-3

2.19

2

4.42

4+

4.41

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.14

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.23

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.79

2.97