2021 04 05 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Wrexham vs Torquay at 05 April 2021
Dag and Red vs Aldershot at 05 April 2021
Halifax vs Weymouth at 05 April 2021
King’s Lynn vs Altrincham at 05 April 2021
Maidenhead vs Eastleigh at 05 April 2021
Solihull vs Sutton at 05 April 2021
Stockport vs Bromley at 05 April 2021
Wealdstone vs Barnet at 05 April 2021
Woking vs Notts County at 05 April 2021
Boreham Wood vs Hartlepool at 05 April 2021


Wrexham vs Torquay at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Torquay for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

2.81

2.35

7.0

Draw

3.23

3.75

-4.3

Torquay

2.38

3.25

-11.2

Over 2.5

2.01

1.99

0.5

Under 2.5

1.75

2.01

-7.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham, Over 2.5 (7 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 64.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Bromley

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Eastleigh

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Weymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Sutton

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Wealdstone

H

4

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Hartlepool

H

0

0

D

U

N


Torquay in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance as a guest.
Torquay, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Dag and Red

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Maidenhead

A

1

4

L

O

G

13 Mar

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Solihull

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Wrexham is 0.467 and for the Torquay is 0.136.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.559 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torquay is 0.427.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.037 and for the Torquay is 0.22.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.789 and for the Torquay is 1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Torquay.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

23%

34%

24%

19%

Torquay

30%

35%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.13 goals and Torquay to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.39 goals and Torquay to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.94

1

5.43

2-3

2.04

2

4.10

4+

3.92

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.94

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.49

3.63

3.10

2-3 goals

2.27

4.08

3.18

4+ goals

2.38

3.31

3.59

Ov 1.5

2.31

3.78

3.31

Un 1.5

2.49

3.63

3.10

Ov 2.5

2.01

6.49

2.87

Un 2.5

2.85

2.62

3.74

Ov 3.5

2.38

3.31

3.59

Un 3.5

2.34

3.91

3.15

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.72

3.67

No Goal

2.00

6.60

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

5.40

2.85

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.60

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Dag and Red vs Aldershot at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Aldershot for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dag and Red

2.26

2.46

-3.6

Draw

3.25

3.72

-3.9

Aldershot

3.19

3.08

1.1

Over 2.5

2.09

2.00

2.2

Under 2.5

1.74

2.00

-7.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aldershot, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dag and Red in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance at home.
Dag and Red, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Hartlepool

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Torquay

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Altrincham

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Weymouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Boreham Wood

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Mar

Solihull

A

1

0

W

U

N


Aldershot in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance as a guest.
Aldershot, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Stockport

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Mar

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Solihull

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Boreham Wood

H

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Halifax

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Altrincham

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Maidenhead

A

4

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Dag and Red is 0.234 and for the Aldershot is -0.6.
The home dynamic for the Dag and Red is -0.084 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aldershot is 0.022.
The offensive ability for the Dag and Red is 0.497 and for the Aldershot is -0.139.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Dag and Red is -0.021 and for the Aldershot is -0.444.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dag and Red and the red line for guest team, Aldershot.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dag and Red

24%

35%

24%

17%

Aldershot

29%

35%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.32 goals and Aldershot to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.35 goals and Aldershot to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.92

1

5.38

2-3

2.03

2

4.05

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.70

3.07

2-3 goals

2.42

3.97

2.98

4+ goals

2.54

3.30

3.30

Ov 1.5

2.46

3.71

3.08

Un 1.5

2.48

3.70

3.07

Ov 2.5

2.13

6.48

2.65

Un 2.5

2.92

2.60

3.66

Ov 3.5

2.54

3.30

3.30

Un 3.5

2.44

3.87

3.01

Goal-Goal

2.95

2.70

3.45

No Goal

2.07

6.65

2.73

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.27

5.43

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

6.65

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Halifax vs Weymouth at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Weymouth for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Halifax

1.53

1.98

-14.9

Draw

3.94

4.02

-0.5

Weymouth

5.43

4.05

6.3

Over 2.5

1.94

1.96

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.82

2.04

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Weymouth (6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Halifax in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Sutton

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Solihull

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Notts County

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Wealdstone

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Hartlepool

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Torquay

A

3

2

W

O

G


Weymouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance as a guest.
Weymouth, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Wealdstone

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Dag and Red

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Wrexham

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Yeovil

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Halifax is 0.636 and for the Weymouth is 0.104.
The home dynamic for the Halifax is 0.26 and the dynamic as a guest for the Weymouth is -0.489.
The offensive ability for the Halifax is 0.465 and for the Weymouth is 0.193.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Halifax is -0.053 and for the Weymouth is -0.078.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Weymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Halifax

24%

25%

26%

25%

Weymouth

35%

37%

19%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.77 goals and Weymouth to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.52 goals and Weymouth to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.85

1

5.65

2-3

2.06

2

4.33

4+

3.91

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.89

3.13

2.99

2-3 goals

1.76

5.22

4.18

4+ goals

1.84

3.56

5.69

Ov 1.5

1.79

4.49

4.60

Un 1.5

2.89

3.13

2.99

Ov 2.5

1.58

7.08

4.43

Un 2.5

2.70

2.79

3.69

Ov 3.5

1.84

3.56

5.69

Un 3.5

2.04

4.23

3.67

Goal-Goal

2.10

2.99

5.26

No Goal

1.88

6.11

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.71

5.57

4.27

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

6.11

2.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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King’s Lynn vs Altrincham at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between King’s Lynn and Altrincham for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

King’s Lynn

3.02

2.87

1.7

Draw

3.47

3.65

-1.4

Altrincham

2.32

2.65

-5.4

Over 2.5

1.93

2.02

-2.3

Under 2.5

1.88

1.98

-2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at King’s Lynn (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

King’s Lynn in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance at home.
King’s Lynn, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Eastleigh

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Altrincham

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Mar

Torquay

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Hartlepool

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Woking

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Notts County

A

2

2

D

O

G


Altrincham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance as a guest.
Altrincham, as a guest, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 45.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Mar

Maidenhead

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Mar

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Woking

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Aldershot

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Hartlepool

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Bromley

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the King’s Lynn is -0.467 and for the Altrincham is -0.016.
The home dynamic for the King’s Lynn is -0.304 and the dynamic as a guest for the Altrincham is 0.084.
The offensive ability for the King’s Lynn is -0.465 and for the Altrincham is 0.578.
Finally, the defensive ability for the King’s Lynn is -1 and for the Altrincham is 0.144.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, King’s Lynn and the red line for guest team, Altrincham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

King’s Lynn

25%

39%

22%

14%

Altrincham

26%

34%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.14 goals and Altrincham to score 1.38 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.24 goals and Altrincham to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.94

1

5.32

2-3

2.01

2

3.97

4+

4.00

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.94

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.