Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Rochdale vs Ipswich at 05 April 2021
Peterboro vs Sunderland at 05 April 2021
Oxford vs Accrington at 05 April 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe at 05 April 2021
Hull vs Northampton at 05 April 2021
Burton vs Swindon at 05 April 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Doncaster at 05 April 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Fleetwood Town at 05 April 2021
Wigan vs Portsmouth at 05 April 2021
Blackpool vs Gillingham at 05 April 2021
Shrewsbury vs Plymouth at 05 April 2021
Rochdale vs Ipswich at 05 Apr 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Ipswich for League One (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Rochdale |
3.63 |
2.80 |
8.2 |
|
Draw |
3.32 |
3.77 |
-3.6 |
|
Ipswich |
2.07 |
2.65 |
-10.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
1.98 |
4.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.02 |
-9.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale, Over 2.5 (8.2 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had one win, 8 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 20.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Apr |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
13 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Burton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Feb |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Ipswich in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance as a guest.
Ipswich, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Apr |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Mar |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Mar |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Mar |
Plymouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The form score for the Rochdale is -0.495 and for the Ipswich is -0.064.
The home dynamic for the Rochdale is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ipswich is -0.066.
The offensive ability for the Rochdale is -0.283 and for the Ipswich is 0.166.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rochdale is -1 and for the Ipswich is 0.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Ipswich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Rochdale |
30% |
30% |
24% |
16% |
|
Ipswich |
23% |
38% |
25% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 0.93 goals and Ipswich to score 1.38 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the guest team Ipswich to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.27 goals and Ipswich to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.00 |
|
1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
3.83 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |
|
5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |
|
NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.57 |
3.62 |
2.25 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.66 |
4.33 |
2.55 |
|
4+ goals |
2.51 |
3.14 |
3.53 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.83 |
2.82 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |
3.62 |
2.25 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.10 |
2.65 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.92 |
2.71 |
2.66 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.14 |
3.53 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.91 |
4.06 |
2.44 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.76 |
3.60 |
|
No Goal |
2.80 |
6.67 |
2.03 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
5.14 |
2.85 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.02 |
6.67 |
2.05 |
Go to Top
Peterboro vs Sunderland at 05 Apr 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Sunderland for League One (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Peterboro |
2.74 |
2.45 |
4.3 |
|
Draw |
3.21 |
3.77 |
-4.6 |
|
Sunderland |
2.59 |
3.06 |
-5.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.26 |
1.98 |
6.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
2.02 |
-11.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Peterboro, Over 2.5 (4.3 %, 6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Peterboro in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 14 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 44 points, 81.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
7 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
23 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Mar |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Mar |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Sunderland in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance as a guest.
Sunderland, as a guest, had 10 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 37 points, 68.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Apr |
Oxford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Mar |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Swindon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Crewe |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The form score for the Peterboro is 0.374 and for the Sunderland is 0.816.
The home dynamic for the Peterboro is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sunderland is 1.
The offensive ability for the Peterboro is 1 and for the Sunderland is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.505 and for the Sunderland is 0.889.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Sunderland.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Peterboro |
26% |
30% |
26% |
18% |
|
Sunderland |
28% |
37% |
23% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.09 goals and Sunderland to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.35 goals and Sunderland to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.95 |
|
1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.88 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
|
5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |
|
NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.01 |
3.47 |
2.64 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.25 |
4.45 |
3.02 |
|
4+ goals |
2.41 |
3.19 |
3.69 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.91 |
3.22 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.01 |
3.47 |
2.64 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.23 |
2.94 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.17 |
2.70 |
3.17 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.19 |
3.69 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.47 |
4.05 |
2.88 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.63 |
2.79 |
3.83 |
|
No Goal |
2.27 |
6.41 |
2.48 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.21 |
3.04 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
6.41 |
2.47 |
Go to Top
Oxford vs Accrington at 05 Apr 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Oxford |
1.80 |
2.24 |
-10.9 |
|
Draw |
3.46 |
3.80 |
-2.6 |
|
Accrington |
4.64 |
3.42 |
7.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.01 |
-0.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.99 |
-4.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Accrington (7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Oxford in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Apr |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Mar |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
13 Mar |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Mar |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Accrington in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Apr |
Burton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Mar |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Mar |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Mar |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the Oxford is -0.327 and for the Accrington is -0.576.
The home dynamic for the Oxford is 0.295 and the dynamic as a guest for the Accrington is -0.198.
The offensive ability for the Oxford is -0.358 and for the Accrington is -0.318.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oxford is -0.579 and for the Accrington is -0.411.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Oxford |
23% |
31% |
27% |
19% |
|
Accrington |
32% |
36% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.63 goals and Accrington to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Oxford to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.41 goals and Accrington to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.88 |
|
1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.00 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.63 |
3.44 |
3.04 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.03 |
4.46 |
3.53 |
|
4+ goals |
2.38 |
3.25 |
3.68 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.96 |
3.58 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.44 |
3.04 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.45 |
3.13 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.71 |
3.77 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.25 |
3.68 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
4.05 |
3.34 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.78 |
3.97 |
|
No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.32 |
3.13 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.39 |
2.95 |
Go to Top
Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe at 05 Apr 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Milton Keynes Dons and Crewe for League One (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Milton Keynes Dons |
2.17 |
2.23 |
-1.2 |
|
Draw |
3.44 |
3.69 |
-2.0 |
|
Crewe |
3.19 |
3.58 |
-3.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.15 |
-7.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.87 |
1.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance at home.
Milton Keynes Dons, at home, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 54.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Mar |
Burton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Mar |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Mar |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Crewe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance as a guest.
Crewe, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Apr |
Hull |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Mar |
Burton |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
09 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.636 and for the Crewe is -0.264.
The home dynamic for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.33 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crewe is -0.225.
The offensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.176 and for the Crewe is 0.22.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.442 and for the Crewe is 0.033.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milton Keynes Dons and the red line for guest team, Crewe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Milton Keynes Dons |
22% |
36% |
25% |
17% |
|
Crewe |
34% |
36% |
21% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.47 goals and Crewe to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.37 goals and Crewe to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.61 |
|
1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.48 |
|
3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |