# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Rochdale vs Ipswich at 05 April 2021**** Peterboro vs Sunderland at 05 April 2021**** Oxford vs Accrington at 05 April 2021**** Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe at 05 April 2021**** Hull vs Northampton at 05 April 2021**** Burton vs Swindon at 05 April 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Doncaster at 05 April 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Fleetwood Town at 05 April 2021**** Wigan vs Portsmouth at 05 April 2021**** Blackpool vs Gillingham at 05 April 2021**** Shrewsbury vs Plymouth at 05 April 2021**

###
Rochdale vs Ipswich at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rochdale** and **Ipswich** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **05 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rochdale |
3.63 |
2.80 |
8.2 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.77 |
-3.6 |

Ipswich |
2.07 |
2.65 |
-10.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
1.98 |
4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.02 |
-9.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale, Over 2.5 (8.2 %, 4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** at home**.

Rochdale,** at home**, had one win, 8 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 20.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Burton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Ipswich** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ipswich** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance** as a guest**.

Ipswich,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Plymouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Rochdale** is **-0.495** and for the **Ipswich** is **-0.064.**

The home dynamic for the **Rochdale** is **-1** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Ipswich** is **-0.066.**

The offensive ability for the **Rochdale** is **-0.283** and for the **Ipswich** is **0.166.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rochdale** is **-1** and for the **Ipswich** is **0.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rochdale** and the red line for guest team, **Ipswich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rochdale |
30% |
30% |
24% |
16% |

Ipswich |
23% |
38% |
25% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **0.93 ** goals and **Ipswich** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the guest team **Ipswich ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Ipswich** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.57 |
3.62 |
2.25 |

2-3 goals |
2.66 |
4.33 |
2.55 |

4+ goals |
2.51 |
3.14 |
3.53 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.83 |
2.82 |

Un 1.5 |
3.57 |
3.62 |
2.25 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.10 |
2.65 |

Un 2.5 |
3.92 |
2.71 |
2.66 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.14 |
3.53 |

Un 3.5 |
2.91 |
4.06 |
2.44 |

Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.76 |
3.60 |

No Goal |
2.80 |
6.67 |
2.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
5.14 |
2.85 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.02 |
6.67 |
2.05 |

####
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###
Peterboro vs Sunderland at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Peterboro** and **Sunderland** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **05 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Peterboro |
2.74 |
2.45 |
4.3 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.77 |
-4.6 |

Sunderland |
2.59 |
3.06 |
-5.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.26 |
1.98 |
6.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
2.02 |
-11.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Peterboro, Over 2.5 (4.3 %, 6.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** at home**.

Peterboro,** at home**, had 14 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 44 points, 81.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
7 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** as a guest**.

Sunderland,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 37 points, 68.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Oxford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Swindon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Crewe |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Peterboro** is **0.374** and for the **Sunderland** is **0.816.**

The home dynamic for the **Peterboro** is **1** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sunderland** is **1.**

The offensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **1** and for the **Sunderland** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **0.505** and for the **Sunderland** is **0.889.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Peterboro** and the red line for guest team, **Sunderland. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Peterboro |
26% |
30% |
26% |
18% |

Sunderland |
28% |
37% |
23% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Sunderland** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Sunderland** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.01 |
3.47 |
2.64 |

2-3 goals |
2.25 |
4.45 |
3.02 |

4+ goals |
2.41 |
3.19 |
3.69 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.91 |
3.22 |

Un 1.5 |
3.01 |
3.47 |
2.64 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.23 |
2.94 |

Un 2.5 |
3.17 |
2.70 |
3.17 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.19 |
3.69 |

Un 3.5 |
2.47 |
4.05 |
2.88 |

Goal-Goal |
2.63 |
2.79 |
3.83 |

No Goal |
2.27 |
6.41 |
2.48 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.21 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
6.41 |
2.47 |

####
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###
Oxford vs Accrington at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oxford** and **Accrington** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **05 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oxford |
1.80 |
2.24 |
-10.9 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.80 |
-2.6 |

Accrington |
4.64 |
3.42 |
7.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.01 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.99 |
-4.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Accrington (7.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** at home**.

Oxford,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Accrington** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Accrington** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance** as a guest**.

Accrington,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Burton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Mar |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Oxford** is **-0.327** and for the **Accrington** is **-0.576.**

The home dynamic for the **Oxford** is **0.295** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Accrington** is **-0.198.**

The offensive ability for the **Oxford** is **-0.358** and for the **Accrington** is **-0.318.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Oxford** is **-0.579** and for the **Accrington** is **-0.411.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oxford** and the red line for guest team, **Accrington. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oxford |
23% |
31% |
27% |
19% |

Accrington |
32% |
36% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Accrington** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Oxford ** to win by **0.79** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Accrington** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.00 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.63 |
3.44 |
3.04 |

2-3 goals |
2.03 |
4.46 |
3.53 |

4+ goals |
2.38 |
3.25 |
3.68 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.96 |
3.58 |

Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.44 |
3.04 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.45 |
3.13 |

Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.71 |
3.77 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.25 |
3.68 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
4.05 |
3.34 |

Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.78 |
3.97 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.32 |
3.13 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.39 |
2.95 |

####
Go to Top

###
Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Milton Keynes Dons** and **Crewe** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **05 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Milton Keynes Dons |
2.17 |
2.23 |
-1.2 |

Draw |
3.44 |
3.69 |
-2.0 |

Crewe |
3.19 |
3.58 |
-3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.15 |
-7.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.87 |
1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** at home**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** at home**, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 54.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Burton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** as a guest**.

Crewe,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Hull |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Burton |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **0.636** and for the **Crewe** is **-0.264.**

The home dynamic for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **0.33** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crewe** is **-0.225.**

The offensive ability for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **0.176** and for the **Crewe** is **0.22.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **-0.442** and for the **Crewe** is **0.033.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Milton Keynes Dons** and the red line for guest team, **Crewe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Milton Keynes Dons |
22% |
36% |
25% |
17% |

Crewe |
34% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the home team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |