2021 04 05 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Stevenage vs Bradford at 05 April 2021
Colchester vs Barrow at 05 April 2021
Tranmere vs Cambridge at 05 April 2021
Newport County vs Bolton at 05 April 2021
Leyton Orient vs Walsall at 05 April 2021
Harrogate vs Port Vale at 05 April 2021
Grimsby vs Cheltenham at 05 April 2021
Forest Green vs Salford at 05 April 2021
Exeter vs Mansfield at 05 April 2021
Crawley Town vs Oldham at 05 April 2021


Stevenage vs Bradford at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Bradford for League Two (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stevenage

2.44

2.69

-3.8

Draw

3.13

3.68

-4.8

Bradford

2.99

2.81

2.1

Over 2.5

2.34

2.20

2.7

Under 2.5

1.59

1.83

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bradford, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stevenage in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 52.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Oldham

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Barrow

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Carlisle

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Leyton Orient

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Harrogate

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Forest Green

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Newport County

A

0

0

D

U

N


Bradford in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance as a guest.
Bradford, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 42.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Forest Green

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Colchester

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Scunthorpe

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Oldham

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Carlisle

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Bolton

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Stevenage is 0.963 and for the Bradford is -0.16.
The home dynamic for the Stevenage is 0.322 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bradford is -0.013.
The offensive ability for the Stevenage is 0.112 and for the Bradford is 0.193.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stevenage is 0.821 and for the Bradford is -0.522.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Bradford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stevenage

32%

28%

28%

12%

Bradford

30%

36%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.16 goals and Bradford to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.2 goals and Bradford to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.42

1

5.08

2-3

2.03

2

3.94

4+

4.63

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.42

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.48

3.07

2.58

2-3 goals

2.24

4.92

2.86

4+ goals

3.13

2.81

3.09

Ov 1.5

2.45

4.00

2.93

Un 1.5

3.48

3.07

2.58

Ov 2.5

2.21

5.90

2.64

Un 2.5

3.25

2.80

2.98

Ov 3.5

3.13

2.81

3.09

Un 3.5

2.58

4.02

2.75

Goal-Goal

2.83

2.70

3.62

No Goal

2.56

5.49

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

4.91

2.86

NG+Un 2.5

2.65

5.49

2.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Colchester vs Barrow at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Colchester and Barrow for League Two (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Colchester

2.67

2.58

1.3

Draw

2.99

3.61

-5.7

Barrow

2.83

2.97

-1.7

Over 2.5

2.45

2.27

3.2

Under 2.5

1.54

1.79

-9.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Colchester, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Colchester in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance at home.
Colchester, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 47.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Bolton

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Tranmere

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Port Vale

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Salford

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Harrogate

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Mar

Newport County

H

0

2

L

U

N


Barrow in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance as a guest.
Barrow, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Newport County

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Stevenage

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Grimsby

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Crawley Town

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Mar

Cheltenham

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Walsall

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Mansfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Harrogate

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Colchester is -0.346 and for the Barrow is 0.224.
The home dynamic for the Colchester is -0.295 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barrow is -0.436.
The offensive ability for the Colchester is -0.85 and for the Barrow is 0.578.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Colchester is 0.368 and for the Barrow is -0.144.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Colchester and the red line for guest team, Barrow.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Colchester

30%

31%

26%

13%

Barrow

31%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.07 goals and Barrow to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.21 goals and Barrow to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.32

1

4.85

2-3

2.03

2

3.88

4+

4.85

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.32

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.85

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.10

3.17

2.76

2-3 goals

2.27

4.35

3.04

4+ goals

2.82

2.99

3.22

Ov 1.5

2.41

3.84

3.09

Un 1.5

3.10

3.17

2.76

Ov 2.5

2.12

6.38

2.70

Un 2.5

3.12

2.69

3.25

Ov 3.5

2.82

2.99

3.22

Un 3.5

2.53

3.81

2.93

Goal-Goal

2.85

2.63

3.71

No Goal

2.37

5.47

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

5.30

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

2.49

5.47

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Tranmere vs Cambridge at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tranmere and Cambridge for League Two (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tranmere

2.34

2.66

-5.1

Draw

3.22

3.60

-3.3

Cambridge

3.07

2.88

2.1

Over 2.5

2.19

2.23

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.67

1.81

-4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cambridge (2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tranmere in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance at home.
Tranmere, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 56.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Cheltenham

A

0

4

L

O

N

27 Mar

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Colchester

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Exeter

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Mar

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Southend

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Crawley Town

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Newport County

H

1

0

W

U

N


Cambridge in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance as a guest.
Cambridge, as a guest, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 56.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Carlisle

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Forest Green

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Oldham

A

4

2

W

O

G

09 Mar

Bolton

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Walsall

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Scunthorpe

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Port Vale

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Tranmere is 0.215 and for the Cambridge is 0.68.
The home dynamic for the Tranmere is 0.198 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cambridge is 0.489.
The offensive ability for the Tranmere is 0.005 and for the Cambridge is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tranmere is -0.189 and for the Cambridge is -0.078.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tranmere and the red line for guest team, Cambridge.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tranmere

29%

34%

23%

13%

Cambridge

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.25 goals and Cambridge to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.21 goals and Cambridge to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.38

1

4.81

2-3

2.04

2

3.89

4+

4.69

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.38

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.82

3.36

2.87

2-3 goals

2.52

3.99

2.84

4+ goals

2.77

3.23

3.04

Ov 1.5

2.59

3.72

2.90

Un 1.5

2.82

3.36

2.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6.77

2.48

Un 2.5

3.14

2.62

3.33

Ov 3.5

2.77

3.23

3.04

Un 3.5

2.62

3.73

2.85

Goal-Goal

3.09

2.61

3.41

No Goal

2.33

5.75

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

5.62

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.44

5.75

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Newport County vs Bolton at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newport County and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 05 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newport County

2.99

2.56

5.6

Draw

3.16

3.61

-3.9

Bolton

2.44

3.00

-7.7

Over 2.5

2.26

2.23

0.6

Under 2.5

1.64

1.81

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newport County, Over 2.5 (5.6 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newport County in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance at home.
Newport County, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Barrow

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Port Vale

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Morecambe

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Bradford

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Colchester

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Tranmere

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N


Bolton in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Forest Green

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Walsall

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Port Vale

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Cambridge

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Bradford

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Oldham

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Newport County is -0.047 and for the Bolton is 0.64.
The home dynamic for the Newport County is 0.145 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bolton is 0.727.
The offensive ability for the Newport County is 0.465 and for the Bolton is 0.525.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newport County is -0.611 and for the Bolton is 0.633.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newport County and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newport County

28%

34%

24%

14%

Bolton

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.04 goals and Bolton to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.24 goals and Bolton to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.40

1

4.83

2-3

2.03

2

3.89

4+

4.69

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.40

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-