# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Stevenage vs Bradford at 05 April 2021**** Colchester vs Barrow at 05 April 2021**** Tranmere vs Cambridge at 05 April 2021**** Newport County vs Bolton at 05 April 2021**** Leyton Orient vs Walsall at 05 April 2021**** Harrogate vs Port Vale at 05 April 2021**** Grimsby vs Cheltenham at 05 April 2021**** Forest Green vs Salford at 05 April 2021**** Exeter vs Mansfield at 05 April 2021**** Crawley Town vs Oldham at 05 April 2021**

###
Stevenage vs Bradford at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stevenage** and **Bradford** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **05 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stevenage |
2.44 |
2.69 |
-3.8 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.68 |
-4.8 |

Bradford |
2.99 |
2.81 |
2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.20 |
2.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.83 |
-8.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bradford, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 2.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** at home**.

Stevenage,** at home**, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 52.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Carlisle |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** as a guest**.

Bradford,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 42.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Forest Green |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Oldham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Stevenage** is **0.963** and for the **Bradford** is **-0.16.**

The home dynamic for the **Stevenage** is **0.322** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bradford** is **-0.013.**

The offensive ability for the **Stevenage** is **0.112** and for the **Bradford** is **0.193.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stevenage** is **0.821** and for the **Bradford** is **-0.522.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stevenage** and the red line for guest team, **Bradford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stevenage |
32% |
28% |
28% |
12% |

Bradford |
30% |
36% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Bradford** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Bradford** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.42 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.48 |
3.07 |
2.58 |

2-3 goals |
2.24 |
4.92 |
2.86 |

4+ goals |
3.13 |
2.81 |
3.09 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.45 |
4.00 |
2.93 |

Un 1.5 |
3.48 |
3.07 |
2.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.90 |
2.64 |

Un 2.5 |
3.25 |
2.80 |
2.98 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.13 |
2.81 |
3.09 |

Un 3.5 |
2.58 |
4.02 |
2.75 |

Goal-Goal |
2.83 |
2.70 |
3.62 |

No Goal |
2.56 |
5.49 |
2.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
4.91 |
2.86 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
5.49 |
2.44 |

####
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###
Colchester vs Barrow at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Colchester** and **Barrow** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **05 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Colchester |
2.67 |
2.58 |
1.3 |

Draw |
2.99 |
3.61 |
-5.7 |

Barrow |
2.83 |
2.97 |
-1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.45 |
2.27 |
3.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.79 |
-9.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Colchester, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** at home**.

Colchester,** at home**, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 47.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Tranmere |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** as a guest**.

Barrow,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Grimsby |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Colchester** is **-0.346** and for the **Barrow** is **0.224.**

The home dynamic for the **Colchester** is **-0.295** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Barrow** is **-0.436.**

The offensive ability for the **Colchester** is **-0.85** and for the **Barrow** is **0.578.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Colchester** is **0.368** and for the **Barrow** is **-0.144.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Colchester** and the red line for guest team, **Barrow. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Colchester |
30% |
31% |
26% |
13% |

Barrow |
31% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.1** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.32 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.85 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.32 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.85 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.10 |
3.17 |
2.76 |

2-3 goals |
2.27 |
4.35 |
3.04 |

4+ goals |
2.82 |
2.99 |
3.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.84 |
3.09 |

Un 1.5 |
3.10 |
3.17 |
2.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.38 |
2.70 |

Un 2.5 |
3.12 |
2.69 |
3.25 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.82 |
2.99 |
3.22 |

Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.81 |
2.93 |

Goal-Goal |
2.85 |
2.63 |
3.71 |

No Goal |
2.37 |
5.47 |
2.52 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.30 |
2.84 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
5.47 |
2.59 |

####
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###
Tranmere vs Cambridge at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tranmere** and **Cambridge** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **05 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tranmere |
2.34 |
2.66 |
-5.1 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.60 |
-3.3 |

Cambridge |
3.07 |
2.88 |
2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.23 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.81 |
-4.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cambridge (2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** at home**.

Tranmere,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 56.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Southend |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Cambridge** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cambridge** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance** as a guest**.

Cambridge,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 56.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Oldham |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Tranmere** is **0.215** and for the **Cambridge** is **0.68.**

The home dynamic for the **Tranmere** is **0.198** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cambridge** is **0.489.**

The offensive ability for the **Tranmere** is **0.005** and for the **Cambridge** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Tranmere** is **-0.189** and for the **Cambridge** is **-0.078.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tranmere** and the red line for guest team, **Cambridge. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tranmere |
29% |
34% |
23% |
13% |

Cambridge |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Cambridge** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Cambridge** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.38 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.38 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.82 |
3.36 |
2.87 |

2-3 goals |
2.52 |
3.99 |
2.84 |

4+ goals |
2.77 |
3.23 |
3.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.72 |
2.90 |

Un 1.5 |
2.82 |
3.36 |
2.87 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.77 |
2.48 |

Un 2.5 |
3.14 |
2.62 |
3.33 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.77 |
3.23 |
3.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.62 |
3.73 |
2.85 |

Goal-Goal |
3.09 |
2.61 |
3.41 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
5.75 |
2.52 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
5.62 |
2.56 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
5.75 |
2.59 |

####
Go to Top

###
Newport County vs Bolton at 05 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newport County** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **05 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newport County |
2.99 |
2.56 |
5.6 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.61 |
-3.9 |

Bolton |
2.44 |
3.00 |
-7.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.23 |
0.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.81 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newport County, Over 2.5 (5.6 %, 0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** at home**.

Newport County,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Newport County** is **-0.047** and for the **Bolton** is **0.64.**

The home dynamic for the **Newport County** is **0.145** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bolton** is **0.727.**

The offensive ability for the **Newport County** is **0.465** and for the **Bolton** is **0.525.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newport County** is **-0.611** and for the **Bolton** is **0.633.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newport County** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newport County |
28% |
34% |
24% |
14% |

Bolton |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.40 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |