2021 04 06 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Bologna vs Unics at 06 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Virtus Bologna vs Unics at 06 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Unics for EuroCup, which will take place on 06 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Virtus Bologna

1.33

1.63

Unics

4.03

2.58

Virtus Bologna HC

-7.5

-3.50

Unics HC

+7.5

3.50

Point Line

163.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 26

A

Joventut

W

84

78

18

0

W 17

84

73

Mar 23

H

Joventut

W

80

75

17

0

W 16

80

70

Mar 9

H

JL Bourg

W

83

62

16

0

W 15

83

62

Mar 2

A

Cedevita Olimpija

W

108

98

15

0

W 14

113

95

Feb 3

A

Buducnost VOLI

W

99

89

14

0

W 13

100

89

Jan 26

H

Buducnost VOLI

W

87

65

13

0

W 12

88

65

Jan 20

A

JL Bourg

W

99

87

12

0

W 11

99

87

Jan 13

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

90

76

11

0

W 10

94

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 31

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

82

78

13

6

W 1

83

71

Mar 25

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

74

86

12

6

L 1

75

79

Mar 22

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

94

88

12

5

W 1

96

80

Mar 10

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

90

96

11

5

L 1

90

96

Mar 3

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

85

63

11

4

W 5

91

68

Feb 3

H

Mornar

W

86

61

10

4

W 4

84

63

Jan 27

A

Mornar

W

87

70

9

4

W 3

85

72

Jan 20

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

73

62

8

4

W 2

73

62

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 83 points and the Unics 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Virtus Bologna

Unics

FG%

0.60

0.54

ASS

24.30

17.00

DRB

23.40

22.00

AST-TO

1.61

1.47

TRB

30.80

32.60

FTM

15.70

12.80

BL

3.30

2.00

FTA

20.50

15.80

PF-Fewer

22.70

21.80

ST

8.80

7.60

TO-Fewer

15.10

11.60

Ftper

0.77

0.81

ORBper

0.32

0.48

ORB

7.40

10.60


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