2021 04 06 BCL – MATH to WIN

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Dinamo Sassari vs Nymburk at 06 April 2021
Hapoel Holon vs Tofas at 06 April 2021
Karsiyaka vs Brindisi at 06 April 2021
Tenerife vs San Pablo Burgos at 06 April 2021
Igokea vs VEF Riga at 06 April 2021
Strasbourg vs Turk Telekom at 07 April 2021
AEK Athens vs Nizhny Novgorod at 07 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Dinamo Sassari vs Nymburk at 06 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dinamo Sassari and Nymburk for BCL, which will take place on 06 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Dinamo Sassari	1.4	4.55
Nymburk	3.05	1.28
Dinamo Sassari HC	-5.5	8.00
Nymburk HC	+5.5	-8.00
Point Line	178.5	174.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dinamo Sassari are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Apr 1	A	Brose Baskets Bamberg	L	86	92	4	6		90	84
Mar 30	A	Casademont Zaragoza	L	88	105	4	5		84	94
Mar 9	A	CEZ Nymburk	L	89	90	4	4		88	80
Mar 2	H	Casademont Zaragoza	L	83	95	4	3		79	85
Jan 20	A	Galatasaray	W	92	81	4	2		80	78
Jan 6	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	85	115	3	2		86	106
Dec 16	H	Bakken Bears	L	71	93	3	1		68	84
Nov 18	A	Bakken Bears	W	91	84	3	0		87	76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nymburk are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Apr 1	A	Casademont Zaragoza	L	71	90	7	3		68	80
Mar 30	H	Brose Baskets Bamberg	W	91	80	7	2		95	73
Mar 9	H	Banco di Sardegna Sassari	W	90	89	6	2		79	81
Mar 2	A	Brose Baskets Bamberg	W	91	87	5	2		95	80
Jan 19	H	Tofas SC	L	97	103	4	2		96	98
Jan 6	H	JDA Dijon Basket	W	94	54	4	1		101	56
Dec 15	A	Keravnos Strovolou	W	102	69	3	1		92	80
Nov 18	H	Keravnos Strovolou	W	96	69	2	1		87	80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dinamo Sassari and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nymburk.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nymburk and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dinamo Sassari.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Dinamo Sassari (in the first graph) and by Nymburk in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Dinamo Sassari will expected to score 82 points and the Nymburk 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Dinamo Sassari	Nymburk
FG%	0.54	0.53
ASS	18.80	19.30
DRB	23.30	27.90
AST-TO	1.32	1.42
TRB	33.70	40.20
FTM	15.20	15.70
BL	1.80	2.60
FTA	20.40	22.30
PF-Fewer	20.30	17.70
ST	6.00	6.90
TO-Fewer	14.20	13.60
Ftper	0.74	0.70
ORBper	0.45	0.44
ORB	10.40	12.30

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Hapoel Holon vs Tofas at 06 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hapoel Holon and Tofas for BCL, which will take place on 06 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Hapoel Holon	1.45	4.33
Tofas	2.87	1.30
Hapoel Holon HC	-4.5	7.50
Tofas HC	+4.5	-7.50
Point Line	167.5	157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Holon are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 31	A	Enel Brindisi	W	81	79	8	3		80	74
Mar 23	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	W	77	76	7	3		83	77
Mar 17	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	63	72	6	3		68	73
Mar 9	A	Tofas SC	W	93	81	6	2		92	77
Mar 2	H	Enel Brindisi	W	87	85	5	2		86	79
Jan 20	H	Cholet Basket	W	89	71	4	2		92	74
Jan 5	H	AEK Athens	W	77	71	3	2		78	72
Dec 15	A	Tsmoki-Minsk	W	75	71	2	2		73	73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 30	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	W	90	79	5	6		97	80
Mar 24	H	Enel Brindisi	L	72	91	4	6		71	85
Mar 16	A	Enel Brindisi	L	75	77	4	5		74	72
Mar 9	H	Hapoel Unet Holon	L	81	93	4	4		85	92
Mar 3	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	70	78	4	3		75	79
Jan 19	A	CEZ Nymburk	W	103	97	4	2		102	86
Jan 12	A	JDA Dijon Basket	W	90	61	3	2		97	64
Jan 6	H	Keravnos Strovolou	W	78	67	2	2		71	78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Holon and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Holon.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Hapoel Holon (in the first graph) and by Tofas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Hapoel Holon will expected to score 81 points and the Tofas 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Var	Hapoel Holon	Tofas
FG%	0.53	0.52
ASS	18.50	20.50
DRB	22.60	23.50
AST-TO	1.33	1.64
TRB	30.00	33.50
FTM	15.70	13.60
BL	2.20	2.60
FTA	21.00	18.20
PF-Fewer	22.50	20.00
ST	5.60	8.10
TO-Fewer	13.90	12.50
Ftper	0.75	0.75
ORBper	0.33	0.43
ORB	7.40	10.00

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Karsiyaka vs Brindisi at 06 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Karsiyaka and Brindisi for BCL, which will take place on 06 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Karsiyaka	1.45	2.73
Brindisi	2.85	1.58
Karsiyaka HC	-5.5	4.50
Brindisi HC	+5.5	-4.50
Point Line	159.5	157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 30	A	Tofas SC	L	79	90	6	5		78	86
Mar 23	H	Hapoel Unet Holon	L	76	77	6	4		80	77
Mar 17	A	Hapoel Unet Holon	W	72	63	6	3		75	63
Mar 9	A	Enel Brindisi	L	79	83	5	3		78	77
Mar 3	H	Tofas SC	W	78	70	5	2		77	67
Jan 27	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	85	76	4	2		91	81
Jan 12	A	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	78	65	3	2		77	78
Jan 5	H	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	80	69	2	2		79	83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brindisi are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 31	H	Hapoel Unet Holon	L	79	81	7	4		83	81
Mar 24	A	Tofas SC	W	91	72	7	3		90	68
Mar 16	H	Tofas SC	W	77	75	6	3		76	71
Mar 9	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	W	83	79	5	3		89	80
Mar 2	A	Hapoel Unet Holon	L	85	87	4	3		89	87
Jan 27	H	Hereda San Pablo Burgos	L	86	90	4	2		93	83
Jan 13	A	Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul	W	87	83	4	1		84	88
Dec 22	H	Telenet BC Oostende	W	93	81	3	1		87	80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brindisi.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brindisi and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Karsiyaka (in the first graph) and by Brindisi in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Karsiyaka will expected to score 80 points and the Brindisi 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Var	Karsiyaka	Brindisi
FG%	0.52	0.53
ASS	17.40	16.90
DRB	22.00	24.00
AST-TO	1.69	1.20
TRB	30.10	33.10
FTM	14.50	18.20
BL	2.10	1.70
FTA	19.30	22.60
PF-Fewer	19.50	21.10
ST	5.30	6.50
TO-Fewer	10.30	14.10
Ftper	0.76	0.80
ORBper	0.37	0.38
ORB	8.10	9.10

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Tenerife vs San Pablo Burgos at 06 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and San Pablo Burgos for BCL, which will take place on 06 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Tenerife	1.3	3.39
San Pablo Burgos	3.75	1.42
Tenerife HC	-7.5	6.00
San Pablo Burgos HC	+7.5	-6.00
Point Line	165.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 31	A	BC VEF Riga	W	77	64	8	3		81	69
Mar 23	H	BC Igokea	W	80	75	7	3		82	79
Mar 17	H	BC VEF Riga	W	77	64	6	3		81	69
Mar 9	A	Hereda San Pablo Burgos	L	79	101	5	3		85	93
Mar 3	A	BC Igokea	W	82	62	5	2		84	65
Jan 20	A	Bakken Bears	L	78	96	4	2		74	87
Jan 6	H	Banco di Sardegna Sassari	W	115	85	4	1		100	77
Dec 15	A	Galatasaray	W	104	89	3	1		90	86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Apr 1	H	BC Igokea	W	83	71	9	2		85	74
Mar 30	A	BC Igokea	L	75	77	8	2		77	81
Mar 24	A	BC VEF Riga	W	67	45	8	1		70	49
Mar 9	H	Iberostar Tenerife	W	101	79	7	1		103	72
Mar 2	H	BC VEF Riga	W	76	75	6	1		80	81
Jan 27	A	Enel Brindisi	W	90	86	5	1		89	80
Jan 12	H	Telenet BC Oostende	W	88	73	4	1		82	72
Dec 22	A	Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul	W	74	71	3	1		71	75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tenerife (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tenerife will expected to score 79 points and the San Pablo Burgos 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Var	Tenerife	San Pablo Burgos
FG%	0.60	0.58
ASS	21.00	22.60
DRB	21.40	23.90
AST-TO	1.60	1.78
TRB	29.00	32.70
FTM	14.10	12.40
BL	0.80	2.80
FTA	16.30	17.30
PF-Fewer	19.00	20.60
ST	6.60	9.50
TO-Fewer	13.10	12.70
Ftper	0.87	0.72
ORBper	0.36	0.37
ORB	7.60	8.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Igokea vs VEF Riga at 06 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Igokea and VEF Riga for BCL, which will take place on 06 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Igokea	1.29	3.38
VEF Riga	3.8	1.42
Igokea HC	-8.5	6.00
VEF Riga HC	+8.5	-6.00
Point Line	153.5	151.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Igokea are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Apr 1	A	Hereda San Pablo Burgos	L	71	83	5	6		77	76
Mar 30	H	Hereda San Pablo Burgos	W	77	75	5	5		83	69
Mar 23	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	75	80	4	5		76	73
Mar 9	A	BC VEF Riga	W	91