Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Norwich vs Huddersfield at 06 April 2021
Brentford vs Birmingham at 06 April 2021
Norwich vs Huddersfield at 06 Apr 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Norwich and Huddersfield for Championship (England), which will take place on 06 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Norwich |
1.42 |
1.76 |
-13.6 |
|
Draw |
4.62 |
4.10 |
2.7 |
|
Huddersfield |
7.53 |
5.35 |
5.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.98 |
-8.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.02 |
2.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Huddersfield, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 5.4 %, 2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Norwich in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Norwich in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance at home.
Norwich, at home, had 12 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 42 points, 73.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Norwich was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Apr |
Preston |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Mar |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Luton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
03 Mar |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Feb |
Birmingham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance as a guest.
Huddersfield, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 24.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Apr |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Mar |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Mar |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Preston |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
23 Feb |
Derby |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Swansea |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The form score for the Norwich is 0.37 and for the Huddersfield is -0.202.
The home dynamic for the Norwich is 0.252 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huddersfield is -0.437.
The offensive ability for the Norwich is 1 and for the Huddersfield is 0.096.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Norwich is 0.229 and for the Huddersfield is 0.259.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Norwich and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Norwich |
16% |
30% |
30% |
24% |
|
Huddersfield |
37% |
41% |
15% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Norwich to score 2.14 goals and Huddersfield to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team Norwich to win by 1.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Norwich to score 1.62 goals and Huddersfield to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Norwich to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.95 |
0-1 |
4.24 |
|
1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
1.90 |
|
2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.22 |
|
3 |
3.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.09 |
4.00 |
3.69 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.62 |
4.24 |
6.74 |
|
4+ goals |
1.80 |
3.89 |
5.39 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.67 |
4.12 |
6.25 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.09 |
4.00 |
3.69 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.47 |
8.25 |
5.08 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.71 |
5.70 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.80 |
3.89 |
5.39 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.74 |
4.16 |
5.37 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.07 |
2.85 |
6.00 |
|
No Goal |
1.50 |
7.98 |
4.81 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
6.62 |
4.59 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.98 |
4.28 |
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Brentford vs Birmingham at 06 Apr 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Brentford and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 06 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Brentford |
1.57 |
1.83 |
-9.0 |
|
Draw |
3.90 |
3.89 |
0.1 |
|
Birmingham |
6.13 |
5.08 |
3.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.03 |
1.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.97 |
-6.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Birmingham, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 3.4 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Brentford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance at home.
Brentford, at home, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Apr |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Mar |
Derby |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
12 Mar |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Mar |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Stoke |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Birmingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had 5 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 40.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Apr |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Mar |
Watford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
17 Mar |
Reading |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Mar |
Bristol City |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Feb |
QPR |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the Brentford is -0.394 and for the Birmingham is -0.443.
The home dynamic for the Brentford is 0.166 and the dynamic as a guest for the Birmingham is 0.225.
The offensive ability for the Brentford is 0.579 and for the Birmingham is -0.503.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brentford is -0.914 and for the Birmingham is -0.259.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brentford and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Brentford |
16% |
34% |
28% |
22% |
|
Birmingham |
35% |
42% |
15% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.72 goals and Birmingham to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 1.07 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.57 goals and Birmingham to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
18.18 |
0-1 |
4.15 |
|
1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
1.89 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.33 |
|
3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |
|
5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
Gg |
1.84 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |
|
NoG |
2.19 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.01 |
4.38 |
3.65 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.76 |
3.72 |
6.14 |
|
4+ goals |
1.80 |
3.92 |
5.25 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.77 |
3.78 |
5.84 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.01 |
4.38 |
3.65 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.50 |
8.34 |
4.64 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
2.58 |
5.64 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.80 |
3.92 |
5.25 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.83 |
3.90 |
5.06 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.19 |
2.71 |
5.73 |
|
No Goal |
1.52 |
8.29 |
4.51 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
6.81 |
4.23 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.66 |
8.29 |
4.07 |
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