2021 04 06 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Norwich vs Huddersfield at 06 April 2021
Brentford vs Birmingham at 06 April 2021


Norwich vs Huddersfield at 06 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Norwich and Huddersfield for Championship (England), which will take place on 06 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Norwich

1.42

1.76

-13.6

Draw

4.62

4.10

2.7

Huddersfield

7.53

5.35

5.4

Over 2.5

1.71

1.98

-8.0

Under 2.5

2.14

2.02

2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Huddersfield, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 5.4 %, 2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Norwich in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Norwich in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance at home.
Norwich, at home, had 12 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 42 points, 73.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Preston

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Blackburn

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Nott’m Forest

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Luton

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Mar

Brentford

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Wycombe

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Birmingham

A

3

1

W

O

G


Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance as a guest.
Huddersfield, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 24.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Sheffield Weds

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

Cardiff

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Birmingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Preston

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Feb

Derby

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Swansea

H

4

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Norwich is 0.37 and for the Huddersfield is -0.202.
The home dynamic for the Norwich is 0.252 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huddersfield is -0.437.
The offensive ability for the Norwich is 1 and for the Huddersfield is 0.096.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Norwich is 0.229 and for the Huddersfield is 0.259.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Norwich and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Norwich

16%

30%

30%

24%

Huddersfield

37%

41%

15%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Norwich to score 2.14 goals and Huddersfield to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team Norwich to win by 1.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Norwich to score 1.62 goals and Huddersfield to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Norwich to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.95

0-1

4.24

1

5.65

2-3

1.90

2

3.85

4+

4.22

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.24

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.09

4.00

3.69

2-3 goals

1.62

4.24

6.74

4+ goals

1.80

3.89

5.39

Ov 1.5

1.67

4.12

6.25

Un 1.5

2.09

4.00

3.69

Ov 2.5

1.47

8.25

5.08

Un 2.5

2.19

2.71

5.70

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.89

5.39

Un 3.5

1.74

4.16

5.37

Goal-Goal

2.07

2.85

6.00

No Goal

1.50

7.98

4.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

6.62

4.59

NG+Un 2.5

1.65

7.98

4.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Brentford vs Birmingham at 06 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brentford and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 06 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brentford

1.57

1.83

-9.0

Draw

3.90

3.89

0.1

Birmingham

6.13

5.08

3.4

Over 2.5

2.08

2.03

1.2

Under 2.5

1.75

1.97

-6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Birmingham, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 3.4 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brentford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance at home.
Brentford, at home, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Huddersfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Derby

A

2

2

D

O

G

12 Mar

Blackburn

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Stoke

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Coventry

A

0

2

L

U

N


Birmingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had 5 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 40.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Swansea

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Watford

A

0

3

L

O

N

17 Mar

Reading

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Bristol City

H

0

3

L

O

N

06 Mar

Barnsley

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Huddersfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

QPR

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Norwich

H

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Brentford is -0.394 and for the Birmingham is -0.443.
The home dynamic for the Brentford is 0.166 and the dynamic as a guest for the Birmingham is 0.225.
The offensive ability for the Brentford is 0.579 and for the Birmingham is -0.503.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brentford is -0.914 and for the Birmingham is -0.259.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brentford and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brentford

16%

34%

28%

22%

Birmingham

35%

42%

15%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.72 goals and Birmingham to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 1.07 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.57 goals and Birmingham to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.18

0-1

4.15

1

5.38

2-3

1.89

2

3.75

4+

4.33

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.15

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.01

4.38

3.65

2-3 goals

1.76

3.72

6.14

4+ goals

1.80

3.92

5.25

Ov 1.5

1.77

3.78

5.84

Un 1.5

2.01

4.38

3.65

Ov 2.5

1.50

8.34

4.64

Un 2.5

2.30

2.58

5.64

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.92

5.25

Un 3.5

1.83

3.90

5.06

Goal-Goal

2.19

2.71

5.73

No Goal

1.52

8.29

4.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

6.81

4.23

NG+Un 2.5

1.66

8.29

4.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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