2021 04 06 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sociedad vs Ath Bilbao at 07 April 2021


Sociedad vs Ath Bilbao at 07 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sociedad and Ath Bilbao for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 07 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sociedad

2.25

2.09

3.4

Draw

3.24

3.92

-5.4

Ath Bilbao

3.54

3.75

-1.6

Over 2.5

2.29

1.98

6.8

Under 2.5

1.65

2.02

-11.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sociedad, Over 2.5 (3.4 %, 6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sociedad in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sociedad in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance at home.
Sociedad, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Barcelona

H

1

6

L

O

G

14 Mar

Granada

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Real Madrid

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Alaves

H

4

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Cadiz

H

4

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Villarreal

A

1

1

D

U

G


Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance as a guest.
Ath Bilbao, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Celta

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Granada

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

Cadiz

A

4

0

W

O

N

07 Feb

Valencia

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Sociedad is -0.515 and for the Ath Bilbao is -0.279.
The home dynamic for the Sociedad is -0.018 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ath Bilbao is -0.493.
The offensive ability for the Sociedad is 0.474 and for the Ath Bilbao is 0.435.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sociedad is 0.229 and for the Ath Bilbao is -0.301.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sociedad and the red line for guest team, Ath Bilbao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sociedad

23%

28%

28%

21%

Ath Bilbao

36%

33%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.29 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.47 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.91

1

5.68

2-3

2.04

2

4.15

4+

3.95

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.91

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.53

3.20

3.41

2-3 goals

1.83

5.17

3.84

4+ goals

2.30

3.20

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.97

4.28

3.88

Un 1.5

2.53

3.20

3.41

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.37

3.42

Un 2.5

2.46

2.84

4.14

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.20

3.95

Un 3.5

2.02

4.27

3.68

Goal-Goal

2.45

2.87

4.12

No Goal

1.82

6.26

3.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.11

3.34

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

6.26

3.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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