2021 04 06 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Charlton vs Lincoln at 06 April 2021


Charlton vs Lincoln at 06 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Charlton and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 06 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Charlton

2.14

2.76

-10.5

Draw

3.47

3.69

-1.7

Lincoln

3.24

2.72

5.9

Over 2.5

1.94

2.04

-2.5

Under 2.5

1.87

1.96

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lincoln (5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Charlton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance at home.
Charlton, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Bristol Rvs

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Shrewsbury

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Oxford

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Wigan

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Blackpool

H

0

3

L

O

N


Lincoln in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 64.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Mar

Oxford

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Gillingham

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Rochdale

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Ipswich

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Crewe

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Plymouth

A

3

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Charlton is 0.212 and for the Lincoln is -0.836.
The home dynamic for the Charlton is -0.227 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lincoln is 1.
The offensive ability for the Charlton is 0.611 and for the Lincoln is 0.469.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Charlton is -0.243 and for the Lincoln is -0.483.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Charlton and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Charlton

29%

32%

23%

16%

Lincoln

24%

37%

26%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.44 goals and Lincoln to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Charlton to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.26 goals and Lincoln to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.91

1

5.38

2-3

2.01

2

3.97

4+

4.05

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.24

3.66

2.39

2-3 goals

2.72

4.11

2.58

4+ goals

2.47

3.09

3.69

Ov 1.5

2.63

3.70

2.86

Un 1.5

3.24

3.66

2.39

Ov 2.5

2.18

6.15

2.65

Un 2.5

3.74

2.66

2.81

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.09

3.69

Un 3.5

2.87

3.94

2.51

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.68

3.57

No Goal

2.63

6.59

2.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

5.22

2.77

NG+Un 2.5

2.85

6.59

2.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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