2021 04 06 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Morecambe vs Southend at 06 April 2021
Carlisle vs Scunthorpe at 06 April 2021


Morecambe vs Southend at 06 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Morecambe and Southend for League Two (England), which will take place on 06 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Morecambe

1.88

2.24

-8.5

Draw

3.54

3.72

-1.4

Southend

4.02

3.50

3.7

Over 2.5

2.06

2.10

-0.9

Under 2.5

1.76

1.91

-4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Morecambe in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance at home.
Morecambe, at home, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Cheltenham

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Newport County

H

1

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Forest Green

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Mar

Carlisle

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Crawley Town

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Mansfield

A

0

1

L

U

N


Southend in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance as a guest.
Southend, as a guest, had 4 wins, 7 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Carlisle

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Walsall

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Scunthorpe

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Tranmere

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Oldham

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Cheltenham

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Morecambe is -0.418 and for the Southend is -0.475.
The home dynamic for the Morecambe is 0.104 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southend is -0.465.
The offensive ability for the Morecambe is 1 and for the Southend is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Morecambe is -0.143 and for the Southend is 0.916.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Morecambe and the red line for guest team, Southend.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Morecambe

23%

32%

27%

17%

Southend

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.51 goals and Southend to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Morecambe to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.38 goals and Southend to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.73

1

5.21

2-3

2.00

2

3.92

4+

4.33

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.73

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.53

3.08

2-3 goals

2.06

4.18

3.63

4+ goals

2.33

3.21

3.85

Ov 1.5

2.14

3.81

3.70

Un 1.5

2.55

3.53

3.08

Ov 2.5

1.87

6.62

3.18

Un 2.5

2.72

2.67

3.87

Ov 3.5

2.33

3.21

3.85

Un 3.5

2.21

3.92

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.60

2.69

4.10

No Goal

1.95

6.36

3.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.51

3.15

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

6.36

2.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Carlisle vs Scunthorpe at 06 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 06 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Carlisle

1.86

2.30

-10.3

Draw

3.51

3.68

-1.3

Scunthorpe

4.10

3.42

4.8

Over 2.5

2.09

2.18

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.74

1.85

-3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe (4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Carlisle in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 11 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 61.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Southend

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Crawley Town

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Cambridge

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Stevenage

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Bradford

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Grimsby

H

1

1

D

U

G


Scunthorpe in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Crawley Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Mar

Bradford

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Southend

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Oldham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Leyton Orient

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Exeter

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Salford

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Carlisle is -0.794 and for the Scunthorpe is -0.18.
The home dynamic for the Carlisle is 0.485 and the dynamic as a guest for the Scunthorpe is -0.254.
The offensive ability for the Carlisle is 0.547 and for the Scunthorpe is -0.017.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Carlisle is -0.057 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.441.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Carlisle

25%

32%

26%

16%

Scunthorpe

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.5 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.33 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.55

1

5.00

2-3

2.00

2

3.86

4+

4.57

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.55

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.44

3.00

2-3 goals

2.10

4.13

3.55

4+ goals

2.41

3.13

3.78

Ov 1.5

2.19

3.76

3.61

Un 1.5

2.66

3.44

3.00

Ov 2.5

1.90

6.57

3.11

Un 2.5

2.80

2.67

3.73

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.13

3.78

Un 3.5

2.27

3.85

3.33

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.64

4.07

No Goal

2.02

6.05

2.93

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

5.49

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

6.05

2.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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