2021 04 06 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Juventus vs Napoli at 07 April 2021
Inter vs Sassuolo at 07 April 2021


Juventus vs Napoli at 07 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Napoli for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 07 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.87

2.24

-8.8

Draw

3.67

3.79

-0.9

Napoli

4.30

3.46

5.6

Over 2.5

1.80

2.08

-7.5

Under 2.5

2.07

1.93

3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Napoli, Under 2.5 (5.6 %, 3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Torino

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Benevento

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Cagliari

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Lazio

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Spezia

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Feb

Crotone

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Napoli

A

0

1

L

U

N


Napoli in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Napoli in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance as a guest.
Napoli, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 59.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Crotone

H

4

3

W

O

G

21 Mar

Roma

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Milan

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Bologna

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Sassuolo

A

3

3

D

O

G

28 Feb

Benevento

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Atalanta

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Feb

Juventus

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Juventus is -0.152 and for the Napoli is 1.
The home dynamic for the Juventus is 0.718 and the dynamic as a guest for the Napoli is 0.028.
The offensive ability for the Juventus is 0.474 and for the Napoli is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Juventus is -0.957 and for the Napoli is 0.86.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Napoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

26%

27%

30%

17%

Napoli

38%

25%

27%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.73 goals and Napoli to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.38 goals and Napoli to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.75

1

5.95

2-3

2.04

2

3.97

4+

4.15

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.75

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.59

2.70

4.11

2-3 goals

1.93

7.22

2.92

4+ goals

2.71

2.48

4.38

Ov 1.5

2.13

4.44

3.28

Un 1.5

2.59

2.70

4.11

Ov 2.5

2.09

4.95

3.14

Un 2.5

2.39

3.11

3.84

Ov 3.5

2.71

2.48

4.38

Un 3.5

2.12

4.54

3.25

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.77

3.57

No Goal

1.92

5.47

3.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.37

4.01

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

5.47

3.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Inter vs Sassuolo at 07 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Inter and Sassuolo for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 07 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Inter

1.33

2.18

-29.3

Draw

5.57

3.30

12.3

Sassuolo

8.95

4.18

12.8

Over 2.5

1.44

2.42

-28.1

Under 2.5

2.76

1.70

22.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sassuolo, Under 2.5 (12.3 %, 12.8 %, 22.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Inter in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance at home.
Inter, at home, had 11 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 34 points, 87.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Bologna

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Torino

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Mar

Atalanta

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Parma

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Genoa

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Milan

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

Lazio

H

3

1

W

O

G

05 Feb

Fiorentina

A

2

0

W

U

N


Sassuolo in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance as a guest.
Sassuolo, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Roma

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Mar

Torino

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Verona

H

3

2

W

O

G

06 Mar

Udinese

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Napoli

H

3

3

D

O

G

20 Feb

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Spezia

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Inter is 1 and for the Sassuolo is -0.508.
The home dynamic for the Inter is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sassuolo is 0.183.
The offensive ability for the Inter is 1 and for the Sassuolo is 0.514.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Inter is 1 and for the Sassuolo is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Inter and the red line for guest team, Sassuolo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Inter

29%

20%

37%

14%

Sassuolo

54%

4%

34%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Inter to score 2.65 goals and Sassuolo to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.29 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 2.01 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Inter to score 1.37 goals and Sassuolo to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.29

0-1

3.60

1

8.40

2-3

2.04

2

3.23

4+

4.31

3

5.52

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.60

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

2.42

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

3.10

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

1.47

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

1.75

21.38

2-3 goals

1.66

54.56

2.64

4+ goals

4.14

1.71

5.80

Ov 1.5

2.05

4.99

3.20

Un 1.5

2.62

1.75

21.38

Ov 2.5

2.74

3.04

3.28

Un 2.5

1.92

3.50

5.20

Ov 3.5

4.14

1.71

5.80

Un 3.5

1.91

4.58

3.86

Goal-Goal

4.49

2.23

3.05

No Goal

1.76

4.26

5.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

4.36

2.31

2.96

NG+Un 2.5

1.89

4.26

5.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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