2021 04 06 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Khimki at 06 April 2021
Zalgiris Kaunas vs Panathinaikos at 08 April 2021
Valencia vs Baskonia at 08 April 2021
Alba Berlin vs Crvena Zvezda at 08 April 2021
Fenerbahce vs Real Madrid at 08 April 2021
CSKA Moscow vs ASVEL at 08 April 2021
Olympiacos vs Khimki at 09 April 2021
Olimpia Milano vs Efes at 09 April 2021
Barcelona vs Bayern Munchen at 09 April 2021
Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 09 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Khimki at 06 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Khimki for EuroLeague, which will take place on 06 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.14

1.77

Khimki

6.1

2.30

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

-11.5

-2.50

Khimki HC

+11.5

2.50

Point Line

164.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

67

74

13

19

L 2

66

76

Apr 1

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

64

76

13

18

L 1

64

81

Mar 30

H

FC Barcelona

W

99

94

13

17

W 2

106

92

Mar 25

A

Zalgiris

W

88

81

12

17

W 1

90

84

Mar 16

H

Anadolu Efes

L

66

90

11

17

L 2

69

84

Mar 11

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

63

81

11

16

L 1

61

81

Mar 4

H

Valencia Basket

W

84

72

11

15

W 1

82

70

Mar 2

H

CSKA Moscow

L

80

84

10

15

L 4

80

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 2

A

CSKA Moscow

L

72

97

4

28

L 1

72

91

Mar 31

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

87

85

4

27

W 1

86

88

Mar 26

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

91

3

27

L 4

74

93

Mar 19

H

Valencia Basket

L

68

77

3

26

L 3

66

75

Mar 11

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

81

92

3

25

L 2

81

98

Mar 5

H

Alba Berlin

L

81

100

3

24

L 1

77

101

Mar 2

H

Real Madrid

W

78

77

3

23

W 1

80

76

Feb 25

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

74

84

2

23

L 17

75

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by Khimki in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 84 points and the Khimki 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Khimki

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

16.00

18.30

DRB

22.50

20.50

AST-TO

1.24

1.40

TRB

30.90

28.00

FTM

13.00

13.40

BL

2.60

3.30

FTA

16.50

16.70

PF-Fewer

19.50

22.30

ST

7.20

7.00

TO-Fewer

12.90

13.10

Ftper

0.79

0.80

ORBper

0.37

0.37

ORB

8.40

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zalgiris Kaunas vs Panathinaikos at 08 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zalgiris Kaunas and Panathinaikos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 08 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zalgiris Kaunas

1.55

2.21

Panathinaikos

2.55

1.83

Zalgiris Kaunas HC

-3.5

2.00

Panathinaikos HC

+3.5

-2.00

Point Line

159.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris Kaunas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 1

A

Bayern Munich

L

70

71

16

17

L 1

72

72

Mar 30

H

Alba Berlin

W

96

86

16

16

W 1

91

87

Mar 25

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

81

88

15

16

L 4

81

89

Mar 18

A

Fenerbahce

L

61

84

15

15

L 3

62

85

Mar 12

A

Anadolu Efes

L

62

89

15

14

L 2

64

83

Mar 5

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

64

69

15

13

L 1

65

68

Mar 2

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

85

75

15

12

W 1

84

77

Feb 25

A

Real Madrid

L

58

70

14

12

L 1

59

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 1

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

86

83

11

20

W 1

88

81

Mar 30

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

82

97

10

20

L 3

84

95

Mar 25

A

Anadolu Efes

L

65

85

10

19

L 2

68

80

Mar 19

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

82

86

10

18

L 1

82

91

Mar 11

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

81

63

10

17

W 1

81

64

Mar 4

A

Bayern Munich

L

71

76

9

17

L 3

73

77

Mar 2

H

FC Barcelona

L

77

85

9

16

L 2

83

83

Feb 26

A

Alba Berlin

L

65

74

9

15

L 1

62

75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris Kaunas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris Kaunas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zalgiris Kaunas (in the first graph) and by Panathinaikos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zalgiris Kaunas will expected to score 80 points and the Panathinaikos 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zalgiris Kaunas

Panathinaikos

FG%

0.56

0.53

ASS

18.20

17.60

DRB

20.60

21.20

AST-TO

1.46

1.36

TRB

28.80

31.20

FTM

11.90

13.80

BL

1.00

3.20

FTA

14.20

18.40

PF-Fewer

19.50

20.30

ST

6.30

6.70

TO-Fewer

12.50

12.90

Ftper

0.84

0.75

ORBper

0.40

0.47

ORB

8.20

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Valencia vs Baskonia at 08 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Baskonia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 08 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Valencia

1.6

1.91

Baskonia

2.4

2.10

Valencia HC

-2.5

-1.50

Baskonia HC

+2.5

1.50

Point Line

162.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 2

A

Alba Berlin

W

90

86

18

15

W 1

86

87

Mar 31

H

Olympiacos

L

79

88

17

15

L 1

78

89

Mar 25

H

Bayern Munich

W

83

76

17

14

W 3

85

77

Mar 19

A

BC Khimki

W

77

68

16

14

W 2

66

69

Mar 12

H

Fenerbahce

W

66

52

15

14

W 1

67

52

Mar 4

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

72

84

14

14

L 2

72

85

Mar 2

A

Anadolu Efes

L

83

99

14

13

L 1

86

93

Feb 25

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

91

62

14

12

W 3

96

64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 1

H

Anadolu Efes

L

101

111

17

15

L 1

105

104

Mar 30

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

97

82

17

14

W 4

94

82

Mar 26

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

86

69

16

14

W 3

88

68

Mar 18

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

79

75

15

14

W 2

84

77

Mar 12

H

Bayern Munich

W

78

71

14

14

W 1

80

72

Mar 5

A

FC Barcelona

L

57

71

13

14

L 1

61

70

Mar 3

H

Olympiacos

W

91

66

13

13

W 4

90

67

Feb 26

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

87

67

12

13

W 3

87

71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Valencia (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Valencia will expected to score 80 points and the Baskonia 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Valencia

Baskonia

FG%

0.57

0.55

ASS

20.50

20.30

DRB

20.80

22.00

AST-TO

1.63

1.49

TRB

28.40

31.80

FTM

14.20

13.20

BL

1.70

3.00

FTA

17.50

17.00

PF-Fewer

19.40

17.70

ST

6.10

8.30

TO-Fewer

12.60

13.60

Ftper

0.81

0.77

ORBper

0.37

0.45

ORB

7.60

9.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Alba Berlin vs Crvena Zvezda at 08 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alba Berlin and Crvena Zvezda for EuroLeague, which will take place on 08 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Alba Berlin

1.55

1.26

Crvena Zvezda

2.52

4.85

Alba Berlin HC

-3.5

-8.00

Crvena Zvezda HC

+3.5

8.00

Point Line

158.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 2

H

Valencia Basket

L

86

90

11

22

L 4

84

87

Mar 30

A

Zalgiris

L

86

96

11

21

L 3

88

99

Mar 26

A

FC Barcelona

L

67

80

11

20

L 2

72

78

Mar 18

H

Olympiacos

L

80

84

11

19

L 1

79

85

Mar 11

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

95

89

11

18

W 2

94

92

Mar 5

A

BC Khimki

W

100

81

10

18

W 1

86

82

Mar 2

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

71

87

9

18

L 1

75

89

Feb 26

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

74

65

9

17

W 1

71

65

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crvena Zvezda are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 1

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

76

64

10

23

W 1

76

65

Mar 30

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

72

93

9

23

L 2

73

91

Mar 25

A

CSKA Moscow

L

72

87

9

22

L 1

72

82

Mar 19

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

86

82

9

21

W 2

83

82

Mar 11

H

BC Khimki

W

92

81

8

21

W 1

79

82

Mar 5

A

Olympiacos

L

79

94

7

21

L 8

78

95

Mar 2

H

Bayern Munich

L

76

78

7

20

L 7

78

79

Feb 26

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

67

87

7

19

L 6

68

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Crvena Zvezda.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Crvena Zvezda and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Alba Berlin (in the first graph) and by Crvena Zvezda in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Alba Berlin will expected to score 79 points and the Crvena Zvezda 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Alba Berlin

Crvena Zvezda

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

20.20

14.60

DRB

19.90

19.70

AST-TO

1.44

1.20

TRB

28.20

27.60

FTM

10.60

13.90

BL

2.20

1.70

FTA

12.80

17.20

PF-Fewer

18.50

21.70

ST

6.80

6.50

TO-Fewer

14.00

12.20

Ftper

0.83

0.81

ORBper

0.42

0.41

ORB

8.30

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fenerbahce vs Real Madrid at 08 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fenerbahce and Real Madrid for EuroLeague, which will take place on 08 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fenerbahce

2.55

2.67

Real Madrid

1.55

1.60

Fenerbahce HC

+3.5

4.00

Real Madrid HC

-3.5

-4.00

Point Line

156.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 2

H

FC Barcelona

L

73

82

20

13

L 1

78

80

Mar 30

A

Bayern Munich

W

77

68

20

12

W 3

79

69

Mar 26

A

Olympiacos

W

76

71

19

12

W 2

76

72

Mar 18

H

Zalgiris

W