# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Bielefeld vs Freiburg at 09 April 2021**** Ein Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg at 10 April 2021**** Hertha vs M’gladbach at 10 April 2021**** Stuttgart vs Dortmund at 10 April 2021**** Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig at 10 April 2021**** Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin at 10 April 2021**** FC Koln vs Mainz at 11 April 2021**** Schalke 04 vs Augsburg at 11 April 2021**** Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen at 12 April 2021**

###
Bielefeld vs Freiburg at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bielefeld** and **Freiburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **09 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bielefeld |
3.08 |
2.91 |
1.9 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.77 |
-4.4 |

Freiburg |
2.44 |
2.56 |
-1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.89 |
6.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.13 |
-11.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bielefeld, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 6.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bielefeld** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bielefeld** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance** at home**.

Bielefeld,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Mar |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Mar |
Werder Bremen |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Dortmund |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Feb |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Feb |
Bayern Munich |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

**Freiburg** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Freiburg** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Freiburg,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Mainz |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Werder Bremen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Bielefeld** is **-0.311** and for the **Freiburg** is **-0.333.**

The home dynamic for the **Bielefeld** is **-0.445** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Freiburg** is **0.092.**

The offensive ability for the **Bielefeld** is **-0.459** and for the **Freiburg** is **-0.104.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bielefeld** is **-0.648** and for the **Freiburg** is **-0.63.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bielefeld** and the red line for guest team, **Freiburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bielefeld |
26% |
34% |
25% |
15% |

Freiburg |
24% |
34% |
23% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bielefeld** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Freiburg** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bielefeld** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Freiburg** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
4.29 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.55 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.29 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
1.77 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |

NoG |
2.30 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.76 |
2.59 |

2-3 goals |
2.72 |
4.07 |
2.59 |

4+ goals |
3.36 |
3.36 |
2.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.77 |
2.54 |

Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.76 |
2.59 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.60 |
6.31 |
2.19 |

Un 2.5 |
3.37 |
2.59 |
3.15 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.36 |
3.36 |
2.47 |

Un 3.5 |
2.77 |
3.96 |
2.59 |

Goal-Goal |
3.34 |
2.78 |
2.94 |

No Goal |
2.50 |
7.02 |
2.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.63 |
5.30 |
2.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
7.02 |
2.35 |

####
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###
Ein Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ein Frankfurt** and **Wolfsburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ein Frankfurt |
2.37 |
2.57 |
-3.3 |

Draw |
3.47 |
3.88 |
-3.0 |

Wolfsburg |
2.99 |
2.83 |
1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.86 |
-3.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.17 |
-1.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wolfsburg (1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ein Frankfurt** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Ein Frankfurt** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance** at home**.

Ein Frankfurt,** at home**, had 7 wins, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 27 points, 69.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Dortmund |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Union Berlin |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
RB Leipzig |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Feb |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Bayern Munich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
FC Koln |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Hoffenheim |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Wolfsburg** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolfsburg** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolfsburg,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Schalke 04 |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Hoffenheim |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Hertha |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Bielefeld |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
M’gladbach |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **0.37** and for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.681.**

The home dynamic for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **0.627** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.353.**

The offensive ability for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **1** and for the **Wolfsburg** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **-1** and for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.311.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ein Frankfurt** and the red line for guest team, **Wolfsburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ein Frankfurt |
25% |
34% |
18% |
22% |

Wolfsburg |
29% |
30% |
22% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Wolfsburg** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Wolfsburg** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
4.74 |
4+ |
3.39 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
23.81 |
Un 2.5 |
2.17 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.39 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.38 |
3.29 |

2-3 goals |
2.64 |
4.45 |
2.52 |

4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.60 |
3.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
4.07 |
2.71 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.38 |
3.29 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
6.56 |
2.46 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.62 |
3.47 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.60 |
3.07 |

Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
4.00 |
2.75 |

Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.86 |
3.06 |

No Goal |
2.17 |
6.38 |
2.62 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |
5.18 |
2.47 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.38 |
2.70 |

####
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###
Hertha vs M’gladbach at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hertha** and **M’gladbach** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hertha |
3.19 |
2.79 |
4.5 |

Draw |
3.56 |
3.89 |
-2.4 |

M’gladbach |
2.31 |
2.59 |
-4.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.89 |
-4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.13 |
1.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Hertha, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** at home**.

Hertha,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Leverkusen |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Dortmund |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Stuttgart |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Feb |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**M’gladbach** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **M’gladbach** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance** as a guest**.

M’gladbach,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Freiburg |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Schalke 04 |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Mar |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
RB Leipzig |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Hertha** is **-0.111** and for the **M’gladbach** is **-0.237.**

The home dynamic for the **Hertha** is **-0.7** and the dynamic as a guest for the **M’gladbach** is **0.043.**

The offensive ability for the **Hertha** is **-0.056** and for the **M’gladbach** is **0.626.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Hertha** is **-0.559** and for the **M’gladbach** is **-0.63.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hertha** and the red line for guest team, **M’gladbach. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hertha |
28% |
35% |
19% |
19% |

M’gladbach |
30% |
27% |
23% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.23 ** goals and **M’gladbach** to score **1.55 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the guest team **M’gladbach ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.29 ** goals and **M’gladbach** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.21 |

2 |
4.74 |
4+ |
3.48 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.48 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.17 |
3.52 |

2-3 goals |
2.83 |
4.87 |
2.26 |

4+ goals |
3.09 |
3.50 |
2.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.92 |
4.23 |
2.37 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.17 |
3.52 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.67 |
6.45 |
2.12 |

Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.69 |
3.44 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.09 |
3.50 |
2.56 |

Un 3.5 |
2.70 |
4.08 |
2.60 |

Goal-Goal |
3.57 |
2.91 |
2.66 |

No Goal |
2.29 |
6.01 |
2.52 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.92 |
5.09 |
2.17 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
6.01 |
2.76 |

####
Go to Top

###
Stuttgart vs Dortmund at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stuttgart** and **Dortmund** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stuttgart |
3.97 |
2.35 |
17.4 |

Draw |
3.97 |
3.94 |
0.2 |

Dortmund |
1.86 |
3.12 |
-21.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.50 |
1.84 |
-12.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.19 |
6.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stuttgart, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.4 %, 0.2 %, 6.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stuttgart** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stuttgart** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance** at home**.

Stuttgart,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Bayern Munich |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Hoffenheim |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Schalke 04 |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
FC Koln |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

**Dortmund** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dortmund** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance** as a guest**.

Dortmund,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
FC Koln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Hertha |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Bayern Munich |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Bielefeld |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Schalke 04 |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Hoffenheim |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Stuttgart** is **0.467** and for the **Dortmund** is **0.096.**

The home dynamic for the **Stuttgart** is **-0.136** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Dortmund** is **-0.034.**

The offensive ability for the **Stuttgart** is **0.571** and for the **Dortmund** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stuttgart** is **0.207** and for the **Dortmund** is **-0.089.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stuttgart** and the red line for guest team, **Dortmund. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stuttgart |
24% |
34% |
16% |
26% |

Dortmund |
33% |
28% |
22% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stuttgart** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Dortmund** to score **2.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.15** goals in the game and the guest team **Dortmund ** to win by **0.87** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stuttgart** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Dortmund** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.24 |

2 |
4.98 |
4+ |
3.37 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |

6+ |
22.22 |
Un 2.5 |
2.19 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.37 |

NoG |