2021 04 09 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bielefeld vs Freiburg at 09 April 2021
Ein Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg at 10 April 2021
Hertha vs M’gladbach at 10 April 2021
Stuttgart vs Dortmund at 10 April 2021
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig at 10 April 2021
Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin at 10 April 2021
FC Koln vs Mainz at 11 April 2021
Schalke 04 vs Augsburg at 11 April 2021
Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen at 12 April 2021


Bielefeld vs Freiburg at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bielefeld and Freiburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 09 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bielefeld

3.08

2.91

1.9

Draw

3.23

3.77

-4.4

Freiburg

2.44

2.56

-1.9

Over 2.5

2.16

1.89

6.6

Under 2.5

1.71

2.13

-11.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bielefeld, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bielefeld in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance at home.
Bielefeld, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Mainz

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

RB Leipzig

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Leverkusen

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Mar

Werder Bremen

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Mar

Union Berlin

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Dortmund

A

0

3

L

O

N

19 Feb

Wolfsburg

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Feb

Bayern Munich

A

3

3

D

O

G


Freiburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance as a guest.
Freiburg, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

M’gladbach

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Mainz

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Leverkusen

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Union Berlin

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Werder Bremen

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Dortmund

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Bielefeld is -0.311 and for the Freiburg is -0.333.
The home dynamic for the Bielefeld is -0.445 and the dynamic as a guest for the Freiburg is 0.092.
The offensive ability for the Bielefeld is -0.459 and for the Freiburg is -0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bielefeld is -0.648 and for the Freiburg is -0.63.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, Freiburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bielefeld

26%

34%

25%

15%

Freiburg

24%

34%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.06 goals and Freiburg to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.28 goals and Freiburg to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

4.29

1

5.85

2-3

2.07

2

4.24

4+

3.55

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.29

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.77

Ov 3.5

3.55

NoG

2.30

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.76

2.59

2-3 goals

2.72

4.07

2.59

4+ goals

3.36

3.36

2.47

Ov 1.5

2.92

3.77

2.54

Un 1.5

2.88

3.76

2.59

Ov 2.5

2.60

6.31

2.19

Un 2.5

3.37

2.59

3.15

Ov 3.5

3.36

3.36

2.47

Un 3.5

2.77

3.96

2.59

Goal-Goal

3.34

2.78

2.94

No Goal

2.50

7.02

2.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.63

5.30

2.32

NG+Un 2.5

2.52

7.02

2.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ein Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ein Frankfurt and Wolfsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ein Frankfurt

2.37

2.57

-3.3

Draw

3.47

3.88

-3.0

Wolfsburg

2.99

2.83

1.9

Over 2.5

1.75

1.86

-3.4

Under 2.5

2.12

2.17

-1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wolfsburg (1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance at home.
Ein Frankfurt, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 27 points, 69.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Dortmund

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Union Berlin

H

5

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

RB Leipzig

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Stuttgart

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Feb

Werder Bremen

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Bayern Munich

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

FC Koln

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Hoffenheim

A

3

1

W

O

G


Wolfsburg in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolfsburg in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance as a guest.
Wolfsburg, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

FC Koln

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Werder Bremen

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Schalke 04

H

5

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Hoffenheim

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Hertha

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Bielefeld

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

M’gladbach

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Augsburg

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.37 and for the Wolfsburg is 0.681.
The home dynamic for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.627 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wolfsburg is 0.353.
The offensive ability for the Ein Frankfurt is 1 and for the Wolfsburg is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ein Frankfurt is -1 and for the Wolfsburg is 0.311.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ein Frankfurt and the red line for guest team, Wolfsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ein Frankfurt

25%

34%

18%

22%

Wolfsburg

29%

30%

22%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.48 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.38 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

4.00

1

5.68

2-3

2.20

2

4.74

4+

3.39

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.00

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

23.81

Un 2.5

2.17

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.39

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.38

3.29

2-3 goals

2.64

4.45

2.52

4+ goals

2.52

3.60

3.07

Ov 1.5

2.59

4.07

2.71

Un 1.5

2.50

3.38

3.29

Ov 2.5

2.27

6.56

2.46

Un 2.5

3.03

2.62

3.47

Ov 3.5

2.52

3.60

3.07

Un 3.5

2.59

4.00

2.75

Goal-Goal

3.08

2.86

3.06

No Goal

2.17

6.38

2.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.49

5.18

2.47

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

6.38

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Hertha vs M’gladbach at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hertha and M’gladbach for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hertha

3.19

2.79

4.5

Draw

3.56

3.89

-2.4

M’gladbach

2.31

2.59

-4.7

Over 2.5

1.74

1.89

-4.6

Under 2.5

2.18

2.13

1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Hertha, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hertha in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance at home.
Hertha, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Leverkusen

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Dortmund

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Augsburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Wolfsburg

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Stuttgart

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Bayern Munich

H

0

1

L

U

N


M’gladbach in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance as a guest.
M’gladbach, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Freiburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Schalke 04

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Mar

Augsburg

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Leverkusen

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

RB Leipzig

A

2

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Wolfsburg

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

FC Koln

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Hertha is -0.111 and for the M’gladbach is -0.237.
The home dynamic for the Hertha is -0.7 and the dynamic as a guest for the M’gladbach is 0.043.
The offensive ability for the Hertha is -0.056 and for the M’gladbach is 0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Hertha is -0.559 and for the M’gladbach is -0.63.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hertha and the red line for guest team, M’gladbach.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hertha

28%

35%

19%

19%

M’gladbach

30%

27%

23%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.23 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the guest team M’gladbach to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.29 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.89

1

5.68

2-3

2.21

2

4.74

4+

3.48

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.02

Un 1.5

3.89

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

25.64

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.48

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.17

3.52

2-3 goals

2.83

4.87

2.26

4+ goals

3.09

3.50

2.56

Ov 1.5

2.92

4.23

2.37

Un 1.5

2.50

3.17

3.52

Ov 2.5

2.67

6.45

2.12

Un 2.5

2.96

2.69

3.44

Ov 3.5

3.09

3.50

2.56

Un 3.5

2.70

4.08

2.60

Goal-Goal

3.57

2.91

2.66

No Goal

2.29

6.01

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.92

5.09

2.17

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

6.01

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stuttgart vs Dortmund at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Dortmund for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stuttgart

3.97

2.35

17.4

Draw

3.97

3.94

0.2

Dortmund

1.86

3.12

-21.7

Over 2.5

1.50

1.84

-12.3

Under 2.5

2.57

2.19

6.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stuttgart, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.4 %, 0.2 %, 6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stuttgart in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance at home.
Stuttgart, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Werder Bremen

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Bayern Munich

A

0

4

L

O

N

14 Mar

Hoffenheim

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Schalke 04

H

5

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

FC Koln

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Hertha

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Leverkusen

A

2

5

L

O

G


Dortmund in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance as a guest.
Dortmund, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

FC Koln

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Hertha

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Bayern Munich

A

2

4

L

O

G

27 Feb

Bielefeld

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Schalke 04

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Hoffenheim

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Freiburg

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Stuttgart is 0.467 and for the Dortmund is 0.096.
The home dynamic for the Stuttgart is -0.136 and the dynamic as a guest for the Dortmund is -0.034.
The offensive ability for the Stuttgart is 0.571 and for the Dortmund is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stuttgart is 0.207 and for the Dortmund is -0.089.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Dortmund.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stuttgart

24%

34%

16%

26%

Dortmund

33%

28%

22%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.14 goals and Dortmund to score 2.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.15 goals in the game and the guest team Dortmund to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.45 goals and Dortmund to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.92

1

5.65

2-3

2.24

2

4.98

4+

3.37

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.99

Un 1.5

3.92

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.84

6+

22.22

Un 2.5

2.19

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.37

NoG