# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Watford vs Reading at 09 April 2021**** Derby vs Norwich at 10 April 2021**** Wycombe vs Luton at 10 April 2021**** QPR vs Sheffield Weds at 10 April 2021**** Preston vs Brentford at 10 April 2021**** Barnsley vs Middlesbrough at 10 April 2021**** Huddersfield vs Rotherham at 10 April 2021**** Cardiff vs Blackburn at 10 April 2021**** Bristol City vs Nott’m Forest at 10 April 2021**** Bournemouth vs Coventry at 10 April 2021**** Birmingham vs Stoke at 10 April 2021**** Millwall vs Swansea at 10 April 2021**

###
Watford vs Reading at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Reading** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **09 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
1.84 |
1.94 |
-2.8 |

Draw |
3.44 |
3.89 |
-3.4 |

Reading |
4.55 |
4.37 |
0.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.23 |
2.07 |
3.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.93 |
-8.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reading, Over 2.5 (0.9 %, 3.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 16 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 50 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Birmingham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Mar |
Rotherham |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** as a guest**.

Reading,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 48.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Derby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Watford** is **0.8** and for the **Reading** is **0.17.**

The home dynamic for the **Watford** is **0.364** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Reading** is **0.092.**

The offensive ability for the **Watford** is **1** and for the **Reading** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.172** and for the **Reading** is **-0.726.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Reading. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
20% |
31% |
28% |
21% |

Reading |
36% |
40% |
15% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Reading** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.69** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Reading** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.37 |
3.65 |
3.29 |

2-3 goals |
1.76 |
4.11 |
5.33 |

4+ goals |
2.00 |
3.83 |
4.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.83 |
4.02 |
4.91 |

Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.65 |
3.29 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
8.03 |
4.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
2.65 |
4.70 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.00 |
3.83 |
4.18 |

Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.94 |
4.39 |

Goal-Goal |
2.26 |
2.79 |
5.05 |

No Goal |
1.70 |
6.79 |
3.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
6.45 |
3.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.79 |
3.58 |

####
Go to Top

###
Derby vs Norwich at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Derby** and **Norwich** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Derby |
4.65 |
2.93 |
12.6 |

Draw |
3.71 |
3.60 |
0.8 |

Norwich |
1.75 |
2.63 |
-19.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.29 |
-7.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.77 |
2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Derby, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.6 %, 0.8 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** at home**.

Derby,** at home**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 17 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Reading |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Luton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Brentford |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Mar |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

**Norwich** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Norwich** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance** as a guest**.

Norwich,** as a guest**, had 13 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 42 points, 70.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Apr |
Huddersfield |
H |
7 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Preston |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Luton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Mar |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Derby** is **-0.333** and for the **Norwich** is **0.644.**

The home dynamic for the **Derby** is **-0.427** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Norwich** is **0.362.**

The offensive ability for the **Derby** is **-0.056** and for the **Norwich** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Derby** is **-0.233** and for the **Norwich** is **-0.015.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Derby** and the red line for guest team, **Norwich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Derby |
36% |
33% |
15% |
16% |

Norwich |
33% |
33% |
18% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Derby** to score **0.82 ** goals and **Norwich** to score **1.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the guest team **Norwich ** to win by **0.84** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Norwich** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.70 |
0-1 |
2.95 |

1 |
4.46 |
2-3 |
2.25 |

2 |
4.46 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.52 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.52 |

4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
2.95 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |

Gg |
2.30 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.14 |
2.95 |
2.92 |

2-3 goals |
2.93 |
4.08 |
2.42 |

4+ goals |
2.64 |
3.96 |
2.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.83 |
4.04 |
2.51 |

Un 1.5 |
3.14 |
2.95 |
2.92 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.38 |
8.06 |
2.20 |

Un 2.5 |
3.56 |
2.51 |
3.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.64 |
3.96 |
2.71 |

Un 3.5 |
3.02 |
3.50 |
2.61 |

Goal-Goal |
3.31 |
2.66 |
3.10 |

No Goal |
2.69 |
4.90 |
2.36 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |
6.02 |
2.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
4.90 |
2.51 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wycombe vs Luton at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wycombe** and **Luton** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wycombe |
3.18 |
2.27 |
12.6 |

Draw |
3.18 |
3.62 |
-3.8 |

Luton |
2.33 |
3.53 |
-14.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.26 |
-4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.80 |
-0.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wycombe (12.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** at home**.

Wycombe,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Rotherham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Mar |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Preston |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
QPR |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Watford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Luton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Luton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance** as a guest**.

Luton,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 38.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 18 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Derby |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Preston |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Coventry |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Wycombe** is **0.237** and for the **Luton** is **-0.333.**

The home dynamic for the **Wycombe** is **-0.282** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Luton** is **-0.217.**

The offensive ability for the **Wycombe** is **0.288** and for the **Luton** is **-0.104.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wycombe** is **0.674** and for the **Luton** is **-0.333.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wycombe** and the red line for guest team, **Luton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wycombe |
27% |
34% |
18% |
21% |

Luton |
37% |
36% |
14% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Luton** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Luton** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.05 |

1 |
4.41 |
2-3 |
2.21 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.48 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.05 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.54 |
3.25 |
3.35 |

2-3 goals |
2.16 |
3.65 |
3.80 |

4+ goals |
2.12 |
4.31 |
3.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.15 |
3.84 |
3.65 |

Un 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.25 |
3.35 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
8.69 |
3.03 |

Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.48 |
4.10 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.12 |
4.31 |
3.38 |

Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.47 |
3.59 |

Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.61 |
4.04 |

No Goal |
1.99 |
5.38 |
3.21 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.53 |
2.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.38 |
3.18 |

####
Go to Top

###
QPR vs Sheffield Weds at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **QPR** and **Sheffield Weds** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

QPR |
2.22 |
1.93 |
6.8 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.91 |
-4.5 |

Sheffield Weds |
3.30 |
4.41 |
-7.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.09 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.92 |
-4.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **QPR (6.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**QPR** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **QPR** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance** at home**.

QPR,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 51.7% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Mar |
Reading |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Millwall |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Huddersfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Wycombe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Bristol City |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Sheffield Weds** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield Weds** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance** as a guest**.

Sheffield Weds,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 14 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 23.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Cardiff |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Watford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Barnsley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Mar |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Reading |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Mar |
Rotherham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Luton |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **QPR** is **0.133** and for the **Sheffield Weds** is **-0.096.**

The home dynamic for the **QPR** is **-0.245** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sheffield Weds** is **-0.362.**

The offensive ability for the **QPR** is **0.657** and for the **Sheffield Weds** is **0.243.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **QPR** is **-0.233** and for the **Sheffield Weds** is **-0.607.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **QPR** and the red line for guest team, **Sheffield Weds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

QPR |
21% |
30% |
28% |
22% |

Sheffield Weds |
36% |
41% |
13% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Sheffield Weds** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **QPR ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Sheffield Weds** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **QPR ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |