2021 04 09 Championship (England)

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Watford vs Reading at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place on 09 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Watford	1.84	1.94	-2.8
Draw	3.44	3.89	-3.4
Reading	4.55	4.37	0.9
Over 2.5	2.23	2.07	3.5
Under 2.5	1.66	1.93	-8.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reading, Over 2.5 (0.9 %, 3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 16 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 50 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
05 Apr	Middlesbrough	A	1	1	D	U	G
02 Apr	Sheffield Weds	H	1	0	W	U	N
20 Mar	Birmingham	H	3	0	W	O	N
16 Mar	Rotherham	A	4	1	W	O	G
13 Mar	Cardiff	A	2	1	W	O	G
06 Mar	Nott’m Forest	H	1	0	W	U	N
03 Mar	Wycombe	H	2	0	W	U	N
27 Feb	Bournemouth	A	0	1	L	U	N

Reading in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance as a guest.
Reading, as a guest, had 7 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 48.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
05 Apr	Derby	H	3	1	W	O	G
02 Apr	Barnsley	A	1	1	D	U	G
20 Mar	QPR	H	1	1	D	U	G
17 Mar	Birmingham	A	1	2	L	O	G
13 Mar	Nott’m Forest	A	1	1	D	U	G
06 Mar	Sheffield Weds	H	3	0	W	O	N
02 Mar	Blackburn	H	1	0	W	U	N
27 Feb	Rotherham	A	1	0	W	U	N

The form score for the Watford is 0.8 and for the Reading is 0.17.
The home dynamic for the Watford is 0.364 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reading is 0.092.
The offensive ability for the Watford is 1 and for the Reading is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Watford is 0.172 and for the Reading is -0.726.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Reading.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Watford	20%	31%	28%	21%
Reading	36%	40%	15%	9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.47 goals and Reading to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.5 goals and Reading to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	13.89	0-1	3.80
1	5.24	2-3	1.98
2	3.94	4+	4.35
3	3.97	Ov 1.5	1.36
4	6.49	Un 1.5	3.80
5	17.54	Ov 2.5	2.07
6+	52.63	Un 2.5	1.93
Gg	1.96	Ov 3.5	4.35
NoG	2.04	Un 3.5	1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals	2.37	3.65	3.29
2-3 goals	1.76	4.11	5.33
4+ goals	2.00	3.83	4.18
Ov 1.5	1.83	4.02	4.91
Un 1.5	2.37	3.65	3.29
Ov 2.5	1.60	8.03	4.02
Un 2.5	2.44	2.65	4.70
Ov 3.5	2.00	3.83	4.18
Un 3.5	1.93	3.94	4.39
Goal-Goal	2.26	2.79	5.05
No Goal	1.70	6.79	3.79
G-G+Ov 2.5	1.71	6.45	3.83
NG+Un 2.5	1.86	6.79	3.58

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Derby vs Norwich at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Derby and Norwich for Championship (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Derby	4.65	2.93	12.6
Draw	3.71	3.60	0.8
Norwich	1.75	2.63	-19.1
Over 2.5	1.97	2.29	-7.1
Under 2.5	1.85	1.77	2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Derby, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.6 %, 0.8 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Derby in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance at home.
Derby, at home, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 17 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
05 Apr	Reading	A	1	3	L	O	G
02 Apr	Luton	H	2	0	W	U	N
20 Mar	Stoke	A	0	1	L	U	N
16 Mar	Brentford	H	2	2	D	O	G
13 Mar	Millwall	H	0	1	L	U	N
10 Mar	Barnsley	A	0	0	D	U	N
06 Mar	Coventry	A	0	1	L	U	N
02 Mar	Cardiff	A	0	4	L	O	N

Norwich in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Norwich in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance as a guest.
Norwich, as a guest, had 13 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 42 points, 70.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
06 Apr	Huddersfield	H	7	0	W	O	N
02 Apr	Preston	A	1	1	D	U	G
20 Mar	Blackburn	H	1	1	D	U	G
17 Mar	Nott’m Forest	A	2	0	W	U	N
14 Mar	Sheffield Weds	A	2	1	W	O	G
06 Mar	Luton	H	3	0	W	O	N
03 Mar	Brentford	H	1	0	W	U	N
28 Feb	Wycombe	A	2	0	W	U	N

The form score for the Derby is -0.333 and for the Norwich is 0.644.
The home dynamic for the Derby is -0.427 and the dynamic as a guest for the Norwich is 0.362.
The offensive ability for the Derby is -0.056 and for the Norwich is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Derby is -0.233 and for the Norwich is -0.015.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Derby and the red line for guest team, Norwich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Derby	36%	33%	15%	16%
Norwich	33%	33%	18%	16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Derby to score 0.82 goals and Norwich to score 1.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team Norwich to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Derby to score 1.12 goals and Norwich to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	8.70	0-1	2.95
1	4.46	2-3	2.25
2	4.46	4+	4.67
3	4.52	Ov 1.5	1.52
4	7.46	Un 1.5	2.95
5	18.52	Ov 2.5	2.30
6+	38.46	Un 2.5	1.78
Gg	2.30	Ov 3.5	4.67
NoG	1.77	Un 3.5	1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals	3.14	2.95	2.92
2-3 goals	2.93	4.08	2.42
4+ goals	2.64	3.96	2.71
Ov 1.5	2.83	4.04	2.51
Un 1.5	3.14	2.95	2.92
Ov 2.5	2.38	8.06	2.20
Un 2.5	3.56	2.51	3.11
Ov 3.5	2.64	3.96	2.71
Un 3.5	3.02	3.50	2.61
Goal-Goal	3.31	2.66	3.10
No Goal	2.69	4.90	2.36
G-G+Ov 2.5	2.48	6.02	2.32
NG+Un 2.5	2.87	4.90	2.51

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wycombe vs Luton at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Luton for Championship (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Wycombe	3.18	2.27	12.6
Draw	3.18	3.62	-3.8
Luton	2.33	3.53	-14.6
Over 2.5	2.06	2.26	-4.3
Under 2.5	1.77	1.80	-0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe (12.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
05 Apr	Rotherham	A	3	0	W	O	N
02 Apr	Blackburn	H	1	0	W	U	N
20 Mar	Coventry	A	0	0	D	U	N
17 Mar	Barnsley	H	1	3	L	O	G
13 Mar	Preston	H	1	0	W	U	N
09 Mar	QPR	A	0	1	L	U	N
06 Mar	Stoke	A	0	2	L	U	N
03 Mar	Watford	A	0	2	L	U	N

Luton in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance as a guest.
Luton, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 38.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 18 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
05 Apr	Barnsley	H	1	2	L	O	G
02 Apr	Derby	A	0	2	L	U	N
20 Mar	Preston	A	1	0	W	U	N
16 Mar	Coventry	H	2	0	W	U	N
13 Mar	Swansea	H	0	1	L	U	N
06 Mar	Norwich	A	0	3	L	O	N
02 Mar	Nott’m Forest	A	1	0	W	U	N
27 Feb	Sheffield Weds	H	3	2	W	O	G

The form score for the Wycombe is 0.237 and for the Luton is -0.333.
The home dynamic for the Wycombe is -0.282 and the dynamic as a guest for the Luton is -0.217.
The offensive ability for the Wycombe is 0.288 and for the Luton is -0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wycombe is 0.674 and for the Luton is -0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Luton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Wycombe	27%	34%	18%	21%
Luton	37%	36%	14%	12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.07 goals and Luton to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.32 goals and Luton to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	9.90	0-1	3.05
1	4.41	2-3	2.21
2	4.37	4+	4.55
3	4.48	Ov 1.5	1.49
4	6.99	Un 1.5	3.05
5	19.61	Ov 2.5	2.26
6+	38.46	Un 2.5	1.80
Gg	2.19	Ov 3.5	4.55
NoG	1.84	Un 3.5	1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals	2.54	3.25	3.35
2-3 goals	2.16	3.65	3.80
4+ goals	2.12	4.31	3.38
Ov 1.5	2.15	3.84	3.65
Un 1.5	2.54	3.25	3.35
Ov 2.5	1.80	8.69	3.03
Un 2.5	2.84	2.48	4.10
Ov 3.5	2.12	4.31	3.38
Un 3.5	2.31	3.47	3.59
Goal-Goal	2.70	2.61	4.04
No Goal	1.99	5.38	3.21
G-G+Ov 2.5	1.97	6.53	2.95
NG+Un 2.5	2.21	5.38	3.18

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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QPR vs Sheffield Weds at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between QPR and Sheffield Weds for Championship (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
QPR	2.22	1.93	6.8
Draw	3.33	3.91	-4.5
Sheffield Weds	3.30	4.41	-7.6
Over 2.5	2.08	2.09	-0.2
Under 2.5	1.76	1.92	-4.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at QPR (6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

QPR in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance at home.
QPR, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 51.7% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
05 Apr	Nott’m Forest	A	1	3	L	O	G
02 Apr	Coventry	H	3	0	W	O	N
20 Mar	Reading	A	1	1	D	U	G
17 Mar	Millwall	H	3	2	W	O	G
13 Mar	Huddersfield	H	0	1	L	U	N
09 Mar	Wycombe	H	1	0	W	U	N
06 Mar	Bristol City	A	2	0	W	U	N
03 Mar	Barnsley	H	1	3	L	O	G

Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield Weds, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 14 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 23.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
05 Apr	Cardiff	H	5	0	W	O	N
02 Apr	Watford	A	0	1	L	U	N
20 Mar	Barnsley	A	2	1	W	O	G
17 Mar	Huddersfield	H	1	1	D	U	G
14 Mar	Norwich	H	1	2	L	O	G
06 Mar	Reading	A	0	3	L	O	N
03 Mar	Rotherham	H	1	2	L	O	G
27 Feb	Luton	A	2	3	L	O	G

The form score for the QPR is 0.133 and for the Sheffield Weds is -0.096.
The home dynamic for the QPR is -0.245 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sheffield Weds is -0.362.
The offensive ability for the QPR is 0.657 and for the Sheffield Weds is 0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the QPR is -0.233 and for the Sheffield Weds is -0.607.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Sheffield Weds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
QPR	21%	30%	28%	22%
Sheffield Weds	36%	41%	13%	10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.35 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.5 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	13.33	0-1	3.70
1	5.13	2-3	1.99
2	3.98	4+	4.41
3	3.98	Ov 1.5	1.37
4	6.54	Un 1.5	3.70
5	18.52	Ov 2.5	2.09
6+	50.00	Un 2.5	1.92
Gg	1.98	Ov 3.5	4.41
NoG	2.02	Un 3.5	1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals