2021 04 09 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Boreham Wood vs Wealdstone at 10 April 2021
Wrexham vs Stockport at 10 April 2021
Torquay vs Weymouth at 10 April 2021
Maidenhead vs Barnet at 10 April 2021
King’s Lynn vs Chesterfield at 10 April 2021
Bromley vs Dag and Red at 10 April 2021
Altrincham vs Halifax at 10 April 2021
Aldershot vs Yeovil at 10 April 2021
Hartlepool vs Notts County at 10 April 2021


Boreham Wood vs Wealdstone at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boreham Wood and Wealdstone for Conference (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boreham Wood

1.49

1.94

-15.6

Draw

4.21

4.05

0.9

Wealdstone

6.77

4.22

8.9

Over 2.5

1.85

1.95

-2.8

Under 2.5

2.00

2.05

-1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Wealdstone (0.9 %, 8.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boreham Wood in the last six matches had no wins, 6 draws, no defeats.and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boreham Wood in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance at home.
Boreham Wood, at home, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Hartlepool

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Apr

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Aldershot

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Notts County

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Torquay

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Dag and Red

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Mar

Wealdstone

A

0

1

L

U

N


Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance as a guest.
Wealdstone, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Barnet

H

5

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Mar

Solihull

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Mar

Woking

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Weymouth

A

0

4

L

O

N

13 Mar

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Boreham Wood is 0 and for the Wealdstone is -0.422.
The home dynamic for the Boreham Wood is -0.227 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wealdstone is -0.372.
The offensive ability for the Boreham Wood is -0.09 and for the Wealdstone is -0.452.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Boreham Wood is 0.119 and for the Wealdstone is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boreham Wood and the red line for guest team, Wealdstone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boreham Wood

23%

26%

26%

26%

Wealdstone

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.96 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 1.3 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.55 goals and Wealdstone to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.91

1

5.71

2-3

2.05

2

4.31

4+

3.89

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.02

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.78

3.16

3.08

2-3 goals

1.73

5.14

4.40

4+ goals

1.81

3.62

5.84

Ov 1.5

1.76

4.49

4.81

Un 1.5

2.78

3.16

3.08

Ov 2.5

1.55

7.23

4.58

Un 2.5

2.62

2.77

3.87

Ov 3.5

1.81

3.62

5.84

Un 3.5

1.99

4.23

3.84

Goal-Goal

2.08

3.00

5.35

No Goal

1.82

6.21

3.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.69

5.68

4.33

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.21

3.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Stockport at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

3.00

2.28

10.5

Draw

3.02

3.77

-6.6

Stockport

2.39

3.37

-12.2

Over 2.5

2.41

1.98

9.0

Under 2.5

1.53

2.02

-15.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham, Over 2.5 (10.5 %, 9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 60.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Torquay

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Bromley

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Eastleigh

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Weymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Sutton

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Wealdstone

H

4

1

W

O

G


Stockport in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 56.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Bromley

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Aldershot

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Hartlepool

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Eastleigh

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Mar

Sutton

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Barnet

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Solihull

A

5

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Weymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Wrexham is 0.074 and for the Stockport is 0.481.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.164 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stockport is 0.372.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.116 and for the Stockport is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.084 and for the Stockport is -0.281.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

22%

34%

24%

19%

Stockport

31%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 0.97 goals and Stockport to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.41 goals and Stockport to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.98

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.10

4+

3.89

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.98

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.41

3.69

3.18

2-3 goals

2.21

4.06

3.32

4+ goals

2.32

3.34

3.72

Ov 1.5

2.25

3.78

3.45

Un 1.5

2.41

3.69

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.95

6.55

2.98

Un 2.5

2.77

2.62

3.90

Ov 3.5

2.32

3.34

3.72

Un 3.5

2.28

3.93

3.27

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.72

3.77

No Goal

1.92

6.76

3.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

5.43

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.76

2.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torquay vs Weymouth at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Weymouth for Conference (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

1.48

1.88

-14.4

Draw

4.04

4.13

-0.5

Weymouth

5.89

4.44

5.5

Over 2.5

1.97

1.95

0.5

Under 2.5

1.79

2.05

-7.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Weymouth, Over 2.5 (5.5 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Wrexham

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Dag and Red

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Maidenhead

A

1

4

L

O

G

13 Mar

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N


Weymouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance as a guest.
Weymouth, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Halifax

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Apr

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Wealdstone

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Dag and Red

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Wrexham

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Torquay is 0.385 and for the Weymouth is -0.163.
The home dynamic for the Torquay is 0.155 and the dynamic as a guest for the Weymouth is -0.391.
The offensive ability for the Torquay is 0.597 and for the Weymouth is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Torquay is 0.648 and for the Weymouth is -0.681.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torquay and the red line for guest team, Weymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torquay

22%

24%

26%

27%

Weymouth

37%

37%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.79 goals and Weymouth to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.57 goals and Weymouth to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.88

1

5.75

2-3

2.05

2

4.35

4+

3.94

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

3.07

3.11

2-3 goals

1.65

5.42

4.78

4+ goals

1.74

3.68

6.51

Ov 1.5

1.68

4.67

5.26

Un 1.5

2.84

3.07

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.49

7.42

5.12

Un 2.5

2.57

2.80

3.94

Ov 3.5

1.74

3.68

6.51

Un 3.5

1.93

4.29

4.03

Goal-Goal

1.99

3.06

5.86

No Goal

1.78

6.12

3.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

5.74

4.77

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.12

3.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maidenhead vs Barnet at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Barnet for Conference (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maidenhead

1.48

2.03

-18.3

Draw

4.21

3.98

1.4

Barnet

5.69

3.89

8.1

Over 2.5

1.75

1.98

-6.6

Under 2.5

2.03

2.02

0.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Barnet, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 8.1 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maidenhead in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance at home.
Maidenhead, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Eastleigh

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Weymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Torquay

H

4

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Chesterfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Dag and Red

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Solihull

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Aldershot

H

2

4

L

O

G


Barnet in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance as a guest.
Barnet, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 11.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Wealdstone

A

1

5

L

O

G

02 Apr

Solihull

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Yeovil

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Chesterfield

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Stockport

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Mar

Wrexham

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Yeovil

H

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Maidenhead is -0.385 and for the Barnet is -0.867.
The home dynamic for the Maidenhead is 0.009 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barnet is -0.758.
The offensive ability for the Maidenhead is 0.142 and for the Barnet is 0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.648 and for the Barnet is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Barnet.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maidenhead

25%

25%

26%

24%

Barnet

35%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.97 goals and Barnet to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Maidenhead to win by 1.24 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.5 goals and Barnet to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Maidenhead to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.82

1

5.65

2-3

2.08

2

4.35

4+

3.89

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.82

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-