# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Boreham Wood vs Wealdstone at 10 April 2021**** Wrexham vs Stockport at 10 April 2021**** Torquay vs Weymouth at 10 April 2021**** Maidenhead vs Barnet at 10 April 2021**** King’s Lynn vs Chesterfield at 10 April 2021**** Bromley vs Dag and Red at 10 April 2021**** Altrincham vs Halifax at 10 April 2021**** Aldershot vs Yeovil at 10 April 2021**** Hartlepool vs Notts County at 10 April 2021**

###
Boreham Wood vs Wealdstone at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Boreham Wood** and **Wealdstone** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Boreham Wood |
1.49 |
1.94 |
-15.6 |

Draw |
4.21 |
4.05 |
0.9 |

Wealdstone |
6.77 |
4.22 |
8.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.95 |
-2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.05 |
-1.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Wealdstone (0.9 %, 8.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Boreham Wood** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 6 draws, no defeats.and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Boreham Wood** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance** at home**.

Boreham Wood,** at home**, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Hartlepool |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Aldershot |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Notts County |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Wealdstone |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Wealdstone** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wealdstone** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance** as a guest**.

Wealdstone,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Barnet |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Mar |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Mar |
Woking |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Weymouth |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
King’s Lynn |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Boreham Wood** is **0** and for the **Wealdstone** is **-0.422.**

The home dynamic for the **Boreham Wood** is **-0.227** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wealdstone** is **-0.372.**

The offensive ability for the **Boreham Wood** is **-0.09** and for the **Wealdstone** is **-0.452.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Boreham Wood** is **0.119** and for the **Wealdstone** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Boreham Wood** and the red line for guest team, **Wealdstone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Boreham Wood |
23% |
26% |
26% |
26% |

Wealdstone |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Boreham Wood** to score **1.96 ** goals and **Wealdstone** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the home team **Boreham Wood ** to win by **1.3** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Boreham Wood** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Wealdstone** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Boreham Wood ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.05 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.78 |
3.16 |
3.08 |

2-3 goals |
1.73 |
5.14 |
4.40 |

4+ goals |
1.81 |
3.62 |
5.84 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.76 |
4.49 |
4.81 |

Un 1.5 |
2.78 |
3.16 |
3.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |
7.23 |
4.58 |

Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.77 |
3.87 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.81 |
3.62 |
5.84 |

Un 3.5 |
1.99 |
4.23 |
3.84 |

Goal-Goal |
2.08 |
3.00 |
5.35 |

No Goal |
1.82 |
6.21 |
3.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
5.68 |
4.33 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.21 |
3.12 |

####
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###
Wrexham vs Stockport at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wrexham** and **Stockport** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wrexham |
3.00 |
2.28 |
10.5 |

Draw |
3.02 |
3.77 |
-6.6 |

Stockport |
2.39 |
3.37 |
-12.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
1.98 |
9.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
2.02 |
-15.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wrexham, Over 2.5 (10.5 %, 9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wrexham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wrexham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance** at home**.

Wrexham,** at home**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 60.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Bromley |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Mar |
Eastleigh |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Sutton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Stockport** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stockport** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance** as a guest**.

Stockport,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 56.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Bromley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Aldershot |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Mar |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Mar |
Barnet |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Solihull |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Weymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Wrexham** is **0.074** and for the **Stockport** is **0.481.**

The home dynamic for the **Wrexham** is **0.164** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Stockport** is **0.372.**

The offensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **0.116** and for the **Stockport** is **0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **0.084** and for the **Stockport** is **-0.281.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wrexham** and the red line for guest team, **Stockport. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wrexham |
22% |
34% |
24% |
19% |

Stockport |
31% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **0.97 ** goals and **Stockport** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.11** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Stockport** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.41 |
3.69 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
2.21 |
4.06 |
3.32 |

4+ goals |
2.32 |
3.34 |
3.72 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.78 |
3.45 |

Un 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.69 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.55 |
2.98 |

Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
2.62 |
3.90 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.34 |
3.72 |

Un 3.5 |
2.28 |
3.93 |
3.27 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.72 |
3.77 |

No Goal |
1.92 |
6.76 |
3.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
5.43 |
2.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.76 |
2.94 |

####
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###
Torquay vs Weymouth at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Torquay** and **Weymouth** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Torquay |
1.48 |
1.88 |
-14.4 |

Draw |
4.04 |
4.13 |
-0.5 |

Weymouth |
5.89 |
4.44 |
5.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
1.95 |
0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.05 |
-7.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Weymouth, Over 2.5 (5.5 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Torquay** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torquay** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance** at home**.

Torquay,** at home**, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 62.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Wrexham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Dag and Red |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
King’s Lynn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Boreham Wood |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Hartlepool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Weymouth** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Weymouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Weymouth,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Halifax |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Maidenhead |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Mar |
Dag and Red |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
King’s Lynn |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Torquay** is **0.385** and for the **Weymouth** is **-0.163.**

The home dynamic for the **Torquay** is **0.155** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Weymouth** is **-0.391.**

The offensive ability for the **Torquay** is **0.597** and for the **Weymouth** is **0.278.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Torquay** is **0.648** and for the **Weymouth** is **-0.681.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Torquay** and the red line for guest team, **Weymouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Torquay |
22% |
24% |
26% |
27% |

Weymouth |
37% |
37% |
18% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Torquay** to score **1.79 ** goals and **Weymouth** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Torquay ** to win by **1.13** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Torquay** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Weymouth** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Torquay ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
3.94 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.05 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.84 |
3.07 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
1.65 |
5.42 |
4.78 |

4+ goals |
1.74 |
3.68 |
6.51 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.68 |
4.67 |
5.26 |

Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
3.07 |
3.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.49 |
7.42 |
5.12 |

Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.80 |
3.94 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.74 |
3.68 |
6.51 |

Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
4.29 |
4.03 |

Goal-Goal |
1.99 |
3.06 |
5.86 |

No Goal |
1.78 |
6.12 |
3.65 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
5.74 |
4.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.12 |
3.21 |

####
Go to Top

###
Maidenhead vs Barnet at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Maidenhead** and **Barnet** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Maidenhead |
1.48 |
2.03 |
-18.3 |

Draw |
4.21 |
3.98 |
1.4 |

Barnet |
5.69 |
3.89 |
8.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.98 |
-6.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.02 |
0.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Barnet, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 8.1 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Maidenhead** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maidenhead** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance** at home**.

Maidenhead,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Torquay |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Chesterfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Dag and Red |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Barnet** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barnet** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance** as a guest**.

Barnet,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 11.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Wealdstone |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Solihull |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Stockport |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.385** and for the **Barnet** is **-0.867.**

The home dynamic for the **Maidenhead** is **0.009** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Barnet** is **-0.758.**

The offensive ability for the **Maidenhead** is **0.142** and for the **Barnet** is **0.191.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.648** and for the **Barnet** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Maidenhead** and the red line for guest team, **Barnet. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Maidenhead |
25% |
25% |
26% |
24% |

Barnet |
35% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Maidenhead** to score **1.97 ** goals and **Barnet** to score **0.73 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Maidenhead ** to win by **1.24** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Maidenhead** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Barnet** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Maidenhead ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |