# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Vitesse vs Den Haag at 09 April 2021**** AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam at 10 April 2021**** Zwolle vs Twente at 10 April 2021**** Heracles vs Willem II at 10 April 2021**** For Sittard vs FC Emmen at 10 April 2021**** Waalwijk vs Ajax at 11 April 2021**** VVV Venlo vs PSV Eindhoven at 11 April 2021**** Utrecht vs Feyenoord at 11 April 2021**** Groningen vs Heerenveen at 11 April 2021**

###
Vitesse vs Den Haag at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Vitesse** and **Den Haag** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **09 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Vitesse |
1.21 |
1.47 |
-14.6 |

Draw |
6.55 |
5.24 |
3.8 |

Den Haag |
12.49 |
7.69 |
5.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.69 |
-6.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.45 |
0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Den Haag, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 5 %, 0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Vitesse** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vitesse** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance** at home**.

Vitesse,** at home**, had 10 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 33 points, 78.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Twente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
VVV Venlo |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Twente |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Den Haag** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Den Haag** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance** as a guest**.

Den Haag,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Heracles |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Waalwijk |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
For Sittard |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Vitesse** is **0.541** and for the **Den Haag** is **-0.719.**

The home dynamic for the **Vitesse** is **0.518** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Den Haag** is **-0.488.**

The offensive ability for the **Vitesse** is **0.571** and for the **Den Haag** is **-0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Vitesse** is **-0.559** and for the **Den Haag** is **-0.704.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Vitesse** and the red line for guest team, **Den Haag. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Vitesse |
12% |
14% |
37% |
36% |

Den Haag |
50% |
25% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Vitesse** to score **2.62 ** goals and **Den Haag** to score **0.45 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.08** goals in the game and the home team **Vitesse ** to win by **2.17** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Vitesse** to score **1.97 ** goals and **Den Haag** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and the home team **Vitesse ** to win by **1.13** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
6.06 |

1 |
9.71 |
2-3 |
1.82 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
3.51 |

3 |
3.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.20 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
6.06 |

5 |
10.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |

6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.44 |

Gg |
2.29 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.51 |

NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.26 |
2.66 |
5.50 |

2-3 goals |
1.20 |
15.28 |
9.82 |

4+ goals |
1.93 |
3.06 |
6.48 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
6.47 |
8.35 |

Un 1.5 |
2.26 |
2.66 |
5.50 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.41 |
6.35 |
7.48 |

Un 2.5 |
1.57 |
4.17 |
8.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.06 |
6.48 |

Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
7.30 |
8.31 |

Goal-Goal |
1.82 |
3.38 |
6.41 |

No Goal |
1.28 |
9.10 |
9.10 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
4.30 |
5.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.43 |
9.10 |
7.31 |

####
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###
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **AZ Alkmaar** and **Sparta Rotterdam** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

AZ Alkmaar |
1.48 |
2.08 |
-19.5 |

Draw |
4.51 |
3.98 |
3.0 |

Sparta Rotterdam |
5.91 |
3.73 |
9.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.86 |
-11.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.16 |
4.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Sparta Rotterdam, Under 2.5 (3 %, 9.9 %, 4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**AZ Alkmaar** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AZ Alkmaar** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance** at home**.

AZ Alkmaar,** at home**, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 69.0% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Twente |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
VVV Venlo |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Heerenveen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance** as a guest**.

Sparta Rotterdam,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Zwolle |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **0.681** and for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **0.393.**

The home dynamic for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **0.173** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.014.**

The offensive ability for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **1** and for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **0.678.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **-0.093** and for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.333.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **AZ Alkmaar** and the red line for guest team, **Sparta Rotterdam. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

AZ Alkmaar |
22% |
27% |
27% |
24% |

Sparta Rotterdam |
30% |
40% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **AZ Alkmaar** to score **2.24 ** goals and **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.04** goals in the game and the home team **AZ Alkmaar ** to win by **1.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **AZ Alkmaar** to score **1.53 ** goals and **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the home team **AZ Alkmaar ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.27 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.53 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.53 |

NoG |
2.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.55 |
2.66 |

2-3 goals |
1.85 |
4.57 |
4.14 |

4+ goals |
2.01 |
3.58 |
4.49 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.91 |
4.15 |
4.26 |

Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.55 |
2.66 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
6.82 |
3.88 |

Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
2.69 |
3.58 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.01 |
3.58 |
4.49 |

Un 3.5 |
2.11 |
4.17 |
3.50 |

Goal-Goal |
2.20 |
2.96 |
4.84 |

No Goal |
1.95 |
6.88 |
2.93 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
5.58 |
3.90 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.88 |
2.76 |

####
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###
Zwolle vs Twente at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zwolle** and **Twente** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zwolle |
2.84 |
2.64 |
2.7 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.88 |
-3.6 |

Twente |
2.40 |
2.75 |
-5.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.65 |
7.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.54 |
-11.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Zwolle, Over 2.5 (2.7 %, 7.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** at home**.

Zwolle,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
VVV Venlo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Feb |
Heerenveen |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
FC Emmen |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Twente** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Twente** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance** as a guest**.

Twente,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Mar |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Vitesse |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Zwolle** is **-0.333** and for the **Twente** is **-0.37.**

The home dynamic for the **Zwolle** is **-0.218** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Twente** is **0.498.**

The offensive ability for the **Zwolle** is **0.597** and for the **Twente** is **0.565.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Zwolle** is **-1** and for the **Twente** is **-0.63.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zwolle** and the red line for guest team, **Twente. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zwolle |
22% |
30% |
23% |
24% |

Twente |
19% |
36% |
25% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Twente** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Twente** to score **1.45 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.94** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
23.26 |
0-1 |
5.49 |

1 |
7.19 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.69 |
4+ |
2.81 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.22 |

4 |
4.88 |
Un 1.5 |
5.49 |

5 |
9.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |

6+ |
21.74 |
Un 2.5 |
2.53 |

Gg |
1.59 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.81 |

NoG |
2.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.55 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.14 |
4.23 |
2.25 |

2-3 goals |
2.65 |
4.17 |
2.62 |

4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.36 |
3.42 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.77 |
2.91 |

Un 1.5 |
3.14 |
4.23 |
2.25 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
5.72 |
2.71 |

Un 2.5 |
3.83 |
2.56 |
2.86 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.36 |
3.42 |

Un 3.5 |
2.77 |
4.19 |
2.50 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.90 |
3.48 |

No Goal |
2.51 |
8.65 |
2.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
4.89 |
2.86 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.76 |
8.65 |
2.06 |

####
Go to Top

###
Heracles vs Willem II at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Heracles** and **Willem II** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Heracles |
2.12 |
1.91 |
5.2 |

Draw |
3.47 |
4.26 |
-5.3 |

Willem II |
3.28 |
4.15 |
-6.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.66 |
5.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.53 |
-10.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Heracles, Over 2.5 (5.2 %, 5.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Heracles** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heracles** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance** at home**.

Heracles,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Mar |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Zwolle |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Twente |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Waalwijk |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Willem II** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Willem II** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance** as a guest**.

Willem II,** as a guest**, had one win, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 19.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Heerenveen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Twente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Feb |
Utrecht |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Heracles** is **0** and for the **Willem II** is **0.126.**

The home dynamic for the **Heracles** is **-0.118** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Willem II** is **-0.836.**

The offensive ability for the **Heracles** is **0.227** and for the **Willem II** is **0.104.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Heracles** is **-1** and for the **Willem II** is **-0.333.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Heracles** and the red line for guest team, **Willem II. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Heracles |
17% |
24% |
28% |
30% |

Willem II |
34% |
30% |
21% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Heracles** to score **1.53 ** goals and **Willem II** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and the home team **Heracles ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Heracles** to score **1.72 ** goals and **Willem II** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.89** goals in the game and the home team **Heracles ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
5.24 |

1 |
7.52 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.85 |
4+ |
2.95 |

3 |
3.77 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |

4 |
5.35 |
Un 1.5 |
5.24 |

5 |
9.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |

6+ |
22.22 |
Un 2.5 |
2.52 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.95 |