2021 04 09 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Vitesse vs Den Haag at 09 April 2021
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam at 10 April 2021
Zwolle vs Twente at 10 April 2021
Heracles vs Willem II at 10 April 2021
For Sittard vs FC Emmen at 10 April 2021
Waalwijk vs Ajax at 11 April 2021
VVV Venlo vs PSV Eindhoven at 11 April 2021
Utrecht vs Feyenoord at 11 April 2021
Groningen vs Heerenveen at 11 April 2021


Vitesse vs Den Haag at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vitesse and Den Haag for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 09 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vitesse

1.21

1.47

-14.6

Draw

6.55

5.24

3.8

Den Haag

12.49

7.69

5.0

Over 2.5

1.53

1.69

-6.2

Under 2.5

2.47

2.45

0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Den Haag, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 5 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vitesse in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance at home.
Vitesse, at home, had 10 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 33 points, 78.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Twente

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Willem II

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Utrecht

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

AZ Alkmaar

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

VVV Venlo

H

4

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Twente

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Heerenveen

A

0

1

L

U

N


Den Haag in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance as a guest.
Den Haag, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Utrecht

H

1

4

L

O

G

21 Mar

Ajax

A

0

5

L

O

N

13 Mar

Heracles

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Heerenveen

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Waalwijk

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Feb

Willem II

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

For Sittard

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Vitesse is 0.541 and for the Den Haag is -0.719.
The home dynamic for the Vitesse is 0.518 and the dynamic as a guest for the Den Haag is -0.488.
The offensive ability for the Vitesse is 0.571 and for the Den Haag is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Vitesse is -0.559 and for the Den Haag is -0.704.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vitesse and the red line for guest team, Den Haag.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vitesse

12%

14%

37%

36%

Den Haag

50%

25%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vitesse to score 2.62 goals and Den Haag to score 0.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.08 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 2.17 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.97 goals and Den Haag to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

6.06

1

9.71

2-3

1.82

2

4.10

4+

3.51

3

3.27

Ov 1.5

1.20

4

6.17

Un 1.5

6.06

5

10.87

Ov 2.5

1.69

6+

32.26

Un 2.5

2.44

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

3.51

NoG

1.77

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.26

2.66

5.50

2-3 goals

1.20

15.28

9.82

4+ goals

1.93

3.06

6.48

Ov 1.5

1.38

6.47

8.35

Un 1.5

2.26

2.66

5.50

Ov 2.5

1.41

6.35

7.48

Un 2.5

1.57

4.17

8.02

Ov 3.5

1.93

3.06

6.48

Un 3.5

1.35

7.30

8.31

Goal-Goal

1.82

3.38

6.41

No Goal

1.28

9.10

9.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.67

4.30

5.88

NG+Un 2.5

1.43

9.10

7.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AZ Alkmaar

1.48

2.08

-19.5

Draw

4.51

3.98

3.0

Sparta Rotterdam

5.91

3.73

9.9

Over 2.5

1.54

1.86

-11.2

Under 2.5

2.40

2.16

4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sparta Rotterdam, Under 2.5 (3 %, 9.9 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AZ Alkmaar in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AZ Alkmaar in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance at home.
AZ Alkmaar, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 69.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Willem II

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

PSV Eindhoven

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Twente

H

4

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Vitesse

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Feyenoord

H

4

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

VVV Venlo

A

4

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Heerenveen

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

FC Emmen

A

1

0

W

U

N


Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance as a guest.
Sparta Rotterdam, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Zwolle

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Mar

Heracles

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Waalwijk

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

VVV Venlo

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

FC Emmen

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Willem II

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Ajax

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Feb

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the AZ Alkmaar is 0.681 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is 0.393.
The home dynamic for the AZ Alkmaar is 0.173 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.014.
The offensive ability for the AZ Alkmaar is 1 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the AZ Alkmaar is -0.093 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AZ Alkmaar and the red line for guest team, Sparta Rotterdam.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AZ Alkmaar

22%

27%

27%

24%

Sparta Rotterdam

30%

40%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AZ Alkmaar to score 2.24 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.04 goals in the game and the home team AZ Alkmaar to win by 1.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AZ Alkmaar to score 1.53 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the home team AZ Alkmaar to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

4.27

1

5.95

2-3

2.07

2

4.39

4+

3.53

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.62

Un 1.5

4.27

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

3.53

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

3.55

2.66

2-3 goals

1.85

4.57

4.14

4+ goals

2.01

3.58

4.49

Ov 1.5

1.91

4.15

4.26

Un 1.5

2.92

3.55

2.66

Ov 2.5

1.68

6.82

3.88

Un 2.5

2.87

2.69

3.58

Ov 3.5

2.01

3.58

4.49

Un 3.5

2.11

4.17

3.50

Goal-Goal

2.20

2.96

4.84

No Goal

1.95

6.88

2.93

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

5.58

3.90

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

6.88

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Zwolle vs Twente at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zwolle and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zwolle

2.84

2.64

2.7

Draw

3.40

3.88

-3.6

Twente

2.40

2.75

-5.3

Over 2.5

1.88

1.65

7.4

Under 2.5

1.96

2.54

-11.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Zwolle, Over 2.5 (2.7 %, 7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zwolle in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance at home.
Zwolle, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Sparta Rotterdam

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

VVV Venlo

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Ajax

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Mar

Heracles

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Feb

Heerenveen

H

4

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

FC Emmen

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Groningen

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Waalwijk

H

1

1

D

U

G


Twente in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Twente in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance as a guest.
Twente, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Vitesse

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Mar

Heerenveen

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Mar

Willem II

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Heracles

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Vitesse

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Zwolle is -0.333 and for the Twente is -0.37.
The home dynamic for the Zwolle is -0.218 and the dynamic as a guest for the Twente is 0.498.
The offensive ability for the Zwolle is 0.597 and for the Twente is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Zwolle is -1 and for the Twente is -0.63.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zwolle and the red line for guest team, Twente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zwolle

22%

30%

23%

24%

Twente

19%

36%

25%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.21 goals and Twente to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.49 goals and Twente to score 1.45 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.94 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

23.26

0-1

5.49

1

7.19

2-3

2.16

2

4.69

4+

2.81

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.22

4

4.88

Un 1.5

5.49

5

9.52

Ov 2.5

1.65

6+

21.74

Un 2.5

2.53

Gg

1.59

Ov 3.5

2.81

NoG

2.69

Un 3.5

1.55

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.14

4.23

2.25

2-3 goals

2.65

4.17

2.62

4+ goals

2.44

3.36

3.42

Ov 1.5

2.55

3.77

2.91

Un 1.5

3.14

4.23

2.25

Ov 2.5

2.20

5.72

2.71

Un 2.5

3.83

2.56

2.86

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.36

3.42

Un 3.5

2.77

4.19

2.50

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.90

3.48

No Goal

2.51

8.65

2.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

4.89

2.86

NG+Un 2.5

2.76

8.65

2.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Heracles vs Willem II at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Heracles and Willem II for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Heracles

2.12

1.91

5.2

Draw

3.47

4.26

-5.3

Willem II

3.28

4.15

-6.4

Over 2.5

1.82

1.66

5.3

Under 2.5

2.01

2.53

-10.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Heracles, Over 2.5 (5.2 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Heracles in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance at home.
Heracles, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Mar

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Den Haag

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Zwolle

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Twente

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Waalwijk

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Ajax

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Feb

For Sittard

A

1

0

W

U

N


Willem II in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Willem II in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance as a guest.
Willem II, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

AZ Alkmaar

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Vitesse

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Heerenveen

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Twente

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Sparta Rotterdam

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Utrecht

H

0

6

L

O

N

14 Feb

Feyenoord

A

0

5

L

O

N


The form score for the Heracles is 0 and for the Willem II is 0.126.
The home dynamic for the Heracles is -0.118 and the dynamic as a guest for the Willem II is -0.836.
The offensive ability for the Heracles is 0.227 and for the Willem II is 0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Heracles is -1 and for the Willem II is -0.333.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Heracles and the red line for guest team, Willem II.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Heracles

17%

24%

28%

30%

Willem II

34%

30%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.53 goals and Willem II to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Heracles to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.72 goals and Willem II to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.89 goals in the game and the home team Heracles to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

5.24

1

7.52

2-3

2.12

2

4.85

4+

2.95

3

3.77

Ov 1.5

1.23

4

5.35

Un 1.5

5.24

5

9.35

Ov 2.5

1.66

6+

22.22

Un 2.5

2.52

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

2.95