2021 04 09 France’s LNB Pro A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Roanne vs Le Mans at 09 April 2021
Cholet vs Limoges at 09 April 2021
Le Portel vs Gravelines at 10 April 2021
Dijon vs Boulazac Dordogne Pro at 10 April 2021
Pau-Lacq-Orthez vs Strasbourg at 10 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Roanne vs Le Mans at 09 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Roanne and Le Mans for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 09 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Roanne

2.1

3.96

Le Mans

1.78

1.34

Roanne HC

+1.5

7.00

Le Mans HC

-1.5

-7.00

Point Line

165.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Roanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Limoges

W

86

62

7

9

W 4

89

67

Mar 27

H

JL Bourg

W

102

97

6

9

W 3

100

89

Mar 20

A

Elan Bearnais

W

81

60

5

9

W 2

75

62

Mar 16

A

Nanterre

W

79

74

4

9

W 1

78

74

Mar 13

H

BCM Gravelines

L

76

89

3

9

L 4

77

92

Mar 9

A

Orleans Loiret

L

100

108

3

8

L 3

98

98

Mar 6

A

Boulazac

L

72

82

3

7

L 2

67

87

Feb 5

A

Le Mans

L

84

97

3

6

L 1

81

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Le Mans are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 7

A

Boulazac

W

105

99

8

5

W 2

98

105

Mar 16

H

ASVEL

W

105

96

7

5

W 1

107

87

Mar 12

H

JL Bourg

L

85

86

6

5

L 2

83

79

Mar 5

A

BCM Gravelines

L

77

91

6

4

L 1

78

94

Feb 5

H

Roanne

W

97

84

6

3

W 4

95

86

Jan 29

A

Elan Chalon

W

85

69

5

3

W 3

84

71

Jan 15

H

Limoges

W

91

68

4

3

W 2

94

74

Dec 26

H

Paris Levallois

W

95

88

3

3

W 1

104

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Roanne and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Le Mans.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Le Mans and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Roanne.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Roanne (in the first graph) and by Le Mans in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Roanne will expected to score 85 points and the Le Mans 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Roanne

Le Mans

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

16.10

19.80

DRB

20.40

22.50

AST-TO

1.10

1.37

TRB

29.40

31.00

FTM

14.50

17.80

BL

2.60

2.80

FTA

21.30

23.20

PF-Fewer

20.20

23.60

ST

8.60

7.60

TO-Fewer

14.60

14.50

Ftper

0.68

0.77

ORBper

0.44

0.38

ORB

9.00

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Cholet vs Limoges at 09 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cholet and Limoges for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 09 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cholet

1.22

2

Limoges

4.45

2

Cholet HC

-8.5

1

Limoges HC

+8.5

1

Point Line

156.5

157

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cholet are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

A

Le Portel

W

91

65

6

8

W 3

88

71

Mar 29

A

Monaco

W

97

76

5

8

W 2

106

74

Mar 27

H

Orleans Loiret

W

91

70

4

8

W 1

89

64

Mar 20

H

Monaco

L

76

87

3

8

L 4

83

85

Mar 6

A

Elan Chalon

L

79

84

3

7

L 3

78

86

Feb 1

A

Strasbourg

L

72

75

3

6

L 2

73

73

Jan 16

A

BCM Gravelines

L

96

100

3

5

L 1

97

104

Dec 19

A

Nanterre

W

80

76

3

4

W 2

79

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Limoges are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

H

Roanne

L

62

86

7

8

L 1

61

88

Mar 27

A

Boulazac

W

72

63

7

7

W 2

67

67

Mar 16

H

Paris Levallois

W

85

79

6

7

W 1

93

82

Mar 13

H

ASVEL

L

60

83

5

7

L 3

61

76

Mar 6

A

Chalons-Reims

L

72

74

5

6

L 2

67

74

Feb 12

A

ASVEL

L

75

84

5

5

L 1

76

76

Feb 6

H

Elan Bearnais

W

96

87

5

4

W 1

89

89

Jan 15

A

Le Mans

L

68

91

4

4

L 1

65

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cholet and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Limoges.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Limoges and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cholet.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cholet (in the first graph) and by Limoges in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cholet will expected to score 80 points and the Limoges 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cholet

Limoges

FG%

0.56

0.54

ASS

18.50

18.80

DRB

22.60

19.50

AST-TO

1.27

1.41

TRB

31.40

26.20

FTM

12.90

15.30

BL

1.80

1.50

FTA

18.90

19.30

PF-Fewer

19.10

18.30

ST

9.40

5.70

TO-Fewer

14.60

13.30

Ftper

0.69

0.79

ORBper

0.39

0.34

ORB

8.90

6.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Le Portel vs Gravelines at 10 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Le Portel and Gravelines for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 10 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Le Portel

2.92

2.71

Gravelines

1.44

1.59

Le Portel HC

+5.5

4.00

Gravelines HC

-5.5

-4.00

Point Line

157.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Le Portel are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

H

Cholet

L

65

91

6

10

L 1

65

90

Mar 27

H

Elan Chalon

W

84

83

6

9

W 1

83

85

Mar 21

A

Elan Chalon

L

75

89

5

9

L 6

74

91

Mar 18

A

Chalons-Reims

L

82

88

5

8

L 5

76

88

Mar 12

H

Monaco

L

71

81

5

7

L 4

77

79

Mar 6

A

Paris Levallois

L

60

85

5

6

L 3

66

88

Feb 12

H

Paris Levallois

L

73

86

5

5

L 2

80

89

Jan 30

A

Monaco

L

60

82

5

4

L 1

65

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gravelines are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 7

H

JL Bourg

L

90

98

8

9

L 1

88

90

Apr 3

H

Paris Levallois

W

72

61

8

8

W 1

79

63

Mar 30

A

Dijon

L

73

83

7

8

L 1

80

85

Mar 24

A

JL Bourg

W

84

67

7

7

W 1

82

61

Mar 18

H

Strasbourg

L

78

81

6

7

L 1

80

79

Mar 13

A

Roanne

W

89

76

6

6

W 2

88

78

Mar 5

H

Le Mans

W

91

77

5

6

W 1

87

70

Feb 6

A

Orleans Loiret

L

69

104

4

6

L 1

68

95

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Le Portel and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gravelines.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gravelines and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Le Portel.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Le Portel (in the first graph) and by Gravelines in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Le Portel will expected to score 76 points and the Gravelines 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Le Portel

Gravelines

FG%

0.52

0.55

ASS

18.10

17.70

DRB

20.40

22.80

AST-TO

1.14

1.04

TRB

28.90

30.10

FTM

13.10

15.40

BL

1.70

1.80

FTA

18.60

20.00

PF-Fewer

21.30

20.60

ST

7.60

7.60

TO-Fewer

15.90

17.00

Ftper

0.71

0.77

ORBper

0.42

0.32

ORB

8.60

7.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Dijon vs Boulazac Dordogne Pro at 10 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dijon and Boulazac Dordogne Pro for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 10 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Dijon

1.11

1.70

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

7.4

2.44

Dijon HC

-13.5

-3.00

Boulazac Dordogne Pro HC

+13.5

3.00

Point Line

156.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dijon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 30

H

BCM Gravelines

W

83

73

13

4

W 1

84

76

Mar 27

A

Strasbourg

L

78

84

12

4

L 2

80

82

Mar 16

A

Orleans Loiret

L

69

74

12

3

L 1

68

67

Mar 13

H

Paris Levallois

W

66

64

12

2

W 7

72

66

Mar 9

A

ASVEL

W

84

76

11

2

W 6

85

69

Feb 13

A

Nanterre

W

86

77

10

2

W 5

85

76

Feb 5

H

Elan Chalon

W

85

75

9

2

W 4

84

77

Jan 16

A

Boulazac

W

86

76

8

2

W 3

80

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Boulazac Dordogne Pro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 7

H

Le Mans

L

99

105

2

11

L 1

95

96

Apr 3

A

Nanterre

W

86

84

2

10

W 1

85

84

Mar 27

H

Limoges

L

63

72

1

10

L 2

65

78

Mar 16

A

Elan Chalon

L

68

80

1

9

L 1

67

82

Mar 6

H

Roanne

W

82

72

1

8

W 1

81

74

Feb 6

H

Nanterre

L

74

96

0

8

L 7

73

95

Jan 29

A

BCM Gravelines

L

84

100

0

7

L 6

85

104

Jan 16

H

Dijon

L

76

86

0

6

L 5

83

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dijon and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Boulazac Dordogne Pro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Boulazac Dordogne Pro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dijon.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Dijon (in the first graph) and by Boulazac Dordogne Pro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Dijon will expected to score 84 points and the Boulazac Dordogne Pro 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Dijon

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

FG%

0.58

0.51

ASS

18.50

15.70

DRB

20.20

21.20

AST-TO

1.40

1.02

TRB

26.60

29.40

FTM

11.20

17.70

BL

1.90

1.80

FTA

14.90

23.80

PF-Fewer

20.20

21.80

ST

7.90

6.30

TO-Fewer

13.20

15.40

Ftper

0.76

0.74

ORBper

0.32

0.39

ORB

6.40

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Pau-Lacq-Orthez vs Strasbourg at 10 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pau-Lacq-Orthez and Strasbourg for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 10 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Pau-Lacq-Orthez

2.7

12.24

Strasbourg

1.5

1.09

Pau-Lacq-Orthez HC

+4.5

11.00

Strasbourg HC

-4.5

-11.00

Point Line

164.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Pau-Lacq-Orthez are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 2

A

Chalons-Reims

L

86

102

4

13

L 1

80

102

Mar 27

H

Nanterre

W

86

79

4

12

W 1

85

78

Mar 20

H

Roanne

L

60

81

3

12

L 11

59

83

Mar 16

A

JL Bourg

L

58

88

3

11

L 10

57

81

Mar 13

H

Orleans Loiret

L