2021 04 09 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Panathinaikos vs GS Lavrio at 10 April 2021
Aris vs Ionikos Nikaias at 10 April 2021
Kolossos Rhodes vs AEK Athens at 10 April 2021
PAOK vs Peristeri at 11 April 2021
Larissa BC vs Iraklis at 11 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Panathinaikos vs GS Lavrio at 10 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and GS Lavrio for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 10 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

1.1

1.55

GS Lavrio

7.7

2.83

Panathinaikos HC

-12.5

-4.50

GS Lavrio HC

+12.5

4.50

Point Line

167.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

H

Messolonghi

W

102

68

15

2

W 5

96

72

Mar 22

A

Peristeri

W

74

68

14

2

W 4

76

71

Mar 13

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

98

74

13

2

W 3

93

74

Mar 7

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

95

82

12

2

W 2

96

81

Feb 28

H

Aris

W

94

72

11

2

W 1

93

75

Jan 31

H

Promitheas Patras

L

78

80

10

2

L 1

79

86

Jan 24

A

Larisa

W

98

89

10

1

W 3

93

92

Jan 17

A

Aris

W

93

75

9

1

W 2

92

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

AEK Athens

W

97

94

15

4

W 7

102

88

Mar 20

A

Messolonghi

W

79

75

14

4

W 6

74

79

Mar 14

H

Peristeri

W

88

71

13

4

W 5

91

74

Mar 10

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

83

77

12

4

W 4

84

76

Mar 7

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

89

88

11

4

W 3

84

88

Feb 6

A

Aris

W

94

89

10

4

W 2

93

92

Jan 30

H

P.A.O.K.

W

84

77

9

4

W 1

81

75

Jan 23

A

Promitheas Patras

L

88

90

8

4

L 1

89

97

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by GS Lavrio in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 82 points and the GS Lavrio 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

GS Lavrio

FG%

0.60

0.55

ASS

20.40

18.20

DRB

25.40

22.20

AST-TO

1.41

1.46

TRB

35.10

30.20

FTM

14.60

15.40

BL

3.20

2.40

FTA

18.90

21.80

PF-Fewer

20.20

22.60

ST

7.30

7.60

TO-Fewer

14.50

12.50

Ftper

0.77

0.70

ORBper

0.38

0.36

ORB

9.60

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Aris vs Ionikos Nikaias at 10 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Ionikos Nikaias for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 10 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aris

1.72

2.52

Ionikos Nikaias

2.18

1.66

Aris HC

-2.5

3.50

Ionikos Nikaias HC

+2.5

-3.50

Point Line

155.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

72

83

6

14

L 4

72

82

Mar 31

A

Promitheas Patras

L

69

90

6

13

L 3

70

97

Mar 27

H

AEK Athens

L

68

73

6

12

L 2

71

68

Mar 20

H

P.A.O.K.

L

71

77

6

11

L 1

68

75

Mar 10

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

76

54

6

10

W 2

76

57

Mar 6

H

Larisa

W

70

52

5

10

W 1

67

54

Feb 28

A

Panathinaikos

L

72

94

4

10

L 2

78

82

Feb 6

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

89

94

4

9

L 1

90

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

H

P.A.O.K.

L

83

84

7

13

L 2

80

82

Mar 27

A

Promitheas Patras

L

72

82

7

12

L 1

73

88

Mar 21

H

Larisa

W

83

76

7

11

W 1

79

78

Mar 13

A

Panathinaikos

L

74

98

6

11

L 2

80

85

Mar 7

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

88

89

6

10

L 1

89

84

Feb 28

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

78

75

6

9

W 2

78

79

Feb 6

H

Messolonghi

W

100

85

5

9

W 1

94

90

Jan 30

A

Peristeri

L

70

86

4

9

L 3

72

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aris (in the first graph) and by Ionikos Nikaias in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aris will expected to score 78 points and the Ionikos Nikaias 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aris

Ionikos Nikaias

FG%

0.50

0.51

ASS

13.60

15.40

DRB

21.80

22.20

AST-TO

0.95

1.12

TRB

31.50

30.90

FTM

16.60

13.40

BL

1.60

1.80

FTA

22.70

17.50

PF-Fewer

22.30

20.40

ST

7.90

7.30

TO-Fewer

14.30

13.80

Ftper

0.73

0.77

ORBper

0.44

0.39

ORB

9.70

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Kolossos Rhodes vs AEK Athens at 10 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Kolossos Rhodes and AEK Athens for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 10 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Kolossos Rhodes

3.2

5.69

AEK Athens

1.37

1.21

Kolossos Rhodes HC

+6.5

9.00

AEK Athens HC

-6.5

-9.00

Point Line

156.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 7

H

Promitheas Patras

L

79

84

7

13

L 1

80

90

Apr 3

H

Aris

W

83

72

7

12

W 1

82

75

Mar 28

A

P.A.O.K.

L

74

82

6

12

L 4

71

80

Mar 14

A

Larisa

L

73

82

6

11

L 3

70

84

Mar 10

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

77

83

6

10

L 2

78

78

Mar 7

H

Panathinaikos

L

82

95

6

9

L 1

89

83

Feb 6

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

84

61

6

8

W 1

84

64

Jan 30

A

Messolonghi

L

77

87

5

8

L 1

72

92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

94

97

14

5

L 1

95

91

Mar 27

A

Aris

W

73

68

14

4

W 5

73

71

Mar 20

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

100

97

13

4

W 4

100

102

Mar 13

A

P.A.O.K.

W

87

85

12

4

W 3

84

83

Mar 6

H

Messolonghi

W

98

76

11

4

W 2

92

80

Feb 6

H

Peristeri

W

91

59

10

4

W 1

94

62

Jan 30

A

Larisa

L

75

76

9

4

L 1

71

78

Jan 27

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

56

9

3

W 2

73

55

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Kolossos Rhodes (in the first graph) and by AEK Athens in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Kolossos Rhodes will expected to score 76 points and the AEK Athens 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Kolossos Rhodes

AEK Athens

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

18.60

17.70

DRB

24.40

22.70

AST-TO

1.32

1.40

TRB

30.80

32.80

FTM

14.00

15.80

BL

1.30

3.20

FTA

18.90

21.30

PF-Fewer

23.40

23.10

ST

6.10

6.80

TO-Fewer

14.10

12.60

Ftper

0.74

0.74

ORBper

0.26

0.44

ORB

6.40

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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PAOK vs Peristeri at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Peristeri for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

PAOK

1.75

6.28

Peristeri

2.15

1.19

PAOK HC

-1.5

9.50

Peristeri HC

+1.5

-9.50

Point Line

151.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

84

83

11

8

W 3

80

82

Mar 28

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

82

74

10

8

W 2

82

73

Mar 20

A

Aris

W

77

71

9

8

W 1

76

74

Mar 13

H

AEK Athens

L

85

87

8

8

L 1

89

81

Mar 6

H

Promitheas Patras

W

81

78

8

7

W 2

82

84

Feb 28

A

Larisa

W

91

88

7

7

W 1

87

90

Jan 30

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

77

84

6

7

L 2

78

79

Jan 27

A

AEK Athens

L

56

76

6

6

L 1

59

71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

H

Promitheas Patras

L

70

73

10

10

L 1

71

78

Mar 28

A

Larisa

W

98

78

10

9

W 1

93

80

Mar 22

H

Panathinaikos

L

68

74

9

9

L 3

74

64

Mar 14

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

88

9

8

L 2

72

83

Mar 6

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

70

79

9

7

L 1

70

83

Feb 27

A

Messolonghi

W

70

63

9

6

W 1

66

66

Feb 6

A

AEK Athens

L

59

91

8

6

L 1

62

85

Jan 30

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

70

8

5

W 1

81

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by PAOK (in the first graph) and by Peristeri in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, PAOK will expected to score 77 points and the Peristeri 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

PAOK

Peristeri

FG%

0.54

0.50

ASS

14.80

17.20

DRB

22.60

24.30

AST-TO

1.05

1.29

TRB

30.10

32.70

FTM

14.50

15.30

BL

2.10

2.60

FTA

18.80

19.80

PF-Fewer

22.90

20.60

ST

8.00

6.00

TO-Fewer

14.10

13.30

Ftper

0.77

0.77

ORBper

0.33

0.35

ORB

7.50

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Larissa BC vs Iraklis at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Larissa BC and Iraklis for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Larissa BC

1.7

2.94

Iraklis

2.22

1.52

Larissa BC HC

-2.5

5.00

Iraklis HC

+2.5

-5.00

Point Line

154.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Messolonghi

L

77

79

5

15

L 3

72

83

Mar 28

H

Peristeri

L

78

98

5

14

L 2

81

103

Mar 21

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

76

83

5

13

L 1

72

82

Mar 14

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

82

73

5