2021 04 09 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fortitudo Bologna vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 10 April 2021
Brindisi vs Olimpia Milano at 11 April 2021
Virtus Bologna vs Trieste at 11 April 2021
Reyer Venezia vs Brescia at 11 April 2021
Universo Treviso vs Dinamo Sassari at 11 April 2021
Reggiana vs Varese at 11 April 2021
Cantu vs Aquila Basket Trento at 11 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Fortitudo Bologna vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 10 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fortitudo Bologna and Victoria Libertas Pesaro for Serie A, which will take place on 10 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fortitudo Bologna

1.55

2.17

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

2.52

1.86

Fortitudo Bologna HC

-3.5

2.00

Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC

+3.5

-2.00

Point Line

158.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

88

78

9

15

W 1

86

78

Mar 28

A

Virtus Bologna

L

73

81

8

15

L 1

77

76

Mar 19

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

71

68

8

14

W 1

71

73

Mar 14

A

Universo Treviso

L

78

84

7

14

L 3

73

80

Mar 7

H

Enel Brindisi

L

70

95

7

13

L 2

73

89

Feb 28

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

72

98

7

12

L 1

79

92

Feb 14

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

79

67

7

11

W 1

76

66

Feb 6

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

79

89

6

11

L 1

76

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

H

Universo Treviso

L

89

97

10

14

L 5

83

92

Mar 29

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

79

91

10

13

L 4

80

97

Mar 20

H

Virtus Bologna

L

70

75

10

12

L 3

74

71

Mar 14

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

68

81

10

11

L 2

65

80

Mar 7

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

78

100

10

10

L 1

73

94

Feb 7

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

81

70

10

9

W 1

83

73

Jan 31

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

65

78

9

9

L 1

69

78

Jan 24

H

Red October Cantu

W

107

83

9

8

W 1

106

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fortitudo Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fortitudo Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fortitudo Bologna (in the first graph) and by Victoria Libertas Pesaro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fortitudo Bologna will expected to score 80 points and the Victoria Libertas Pesaro 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fortitudo Bologna

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

18.00

16.00

DRB

24.10

23.80

AST-TO

1.41

1.50

TRB

31.30

33.80

FTM

12.30

13.80

BL

3.30

1.10

FTA

17.00

18.10

PF-Fewer

17.80

20.90

ST

7.60

6.40

TO-Fewer

12.80

10.70

Ftper

0.73

0.76

ORBper

0.30

0.42

ORB

7.20

10.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Brindisi vs Olimpia Milano at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brindisi and Olimpia Milano for Serie A, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brindisi

2.62

1.84

Olimpia Milano

1.52

2.20

Brindisi HC

+4.5

-2.00

Olimpia Milano HC

-4.5

2.00

Point Line

162.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brindisi are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Red October Cantu

W

93

71

18

5

W 6

92

73

Mar 28

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

74

68

17

5

W 5

72

68

Mar 13

H

Virtus Bologna

W

91

85

16

5

W 4

96

80

Mar 7

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

95

70

15

5

W 3

95

72

Feb 27

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

74

14

5

W 2

83

74

Feb 7

A

Universo Treviso

W

108

90

13

5

W 1

100

85

Feb 4

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

74

76

12

5

L 1

71

75

Feb 1

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

79

70

12

4

W 1

80

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 5

H

Openjobmetis Varese

L

81

83

19

5

L 2

78

82

Mar 28

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

63

69

19

4

L 1

67

69

Mar 21

H

Red October Cantu

W

70

57

19

3

W 2

69

58

Mar 14

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

99

92

18

3

W 1

96

92

Mar 7

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

60

61

17

3

L 1

62

63

Feb 28

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

98

72

17

2

W 1

98

74

Jan 31

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

81

100

16

2

L 1

83

100

Jan 24

A

Universo Treviso

W

82

77

16

1

W 6

76

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brindisi and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brindisi.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brindisi (in the first graph) and by Olimpia Milano in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brindisi will expected to score 80 points and the Olimpia Milano 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brindisi

Olimpia Milano

FG%

0.54

0.56

ASS

16.60

18.20

DRB

25.90

24.30

AST-TO

1.55

1.69

TRB

35.60

31.80

FTM

16.40

15.50

BL

2.60

3.00

FTA

22.00

18.50

PF-Fewer

17.60

18.20

ST

6.20

7.50

TO-Fewer

10.70

10.80

Ftper

0.74

0.84

ORBper

0.37

0.31

ORB

9.70

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Virtus Bologna vs Trieste at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Trieste for Serie A, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Virtus Bologna

1.29

1.16

Trieste

3.8

7.43

Virtus Bologna HC

-8.5

-10.00

Trieste HC

+8.5

10.00

Point Line

160.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

108

77

17

7

W 3

104

68

Mar 28

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

81

73

16

7

W 2

81

76

Mar 20

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

75

70

15

7

W 1

74

69

Mar 13

A

Enel Brindisi

L

85

91

14

7

L 1

89

85

Mar 6

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

77

72

14

6

W 4

82

72

Feb 27

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

76

13

6

W 3

82

75

Feb 7

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

62

12

6

W 2

90

66

Jan 30

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

88

75

11

6

W 1

82

71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Trieste are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

A

Universo Treviso

L

76

95

11

12

L 2

71

90

Mar 21

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

69

87

11

11

L 1

74

87

Mar 13

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

96

70

11

10

W 2

97

75

Mar 7

H

Red October Cantu

W

82

79

10

10

W 1

81

81

Feb 27

A

Enel Brindisi

L

74

81

9

10

L 2

78

76

Feb 7

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

78

81

9

9

L 1

76

81

Jan 31

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

100

81

9

8

W 2

110

76

Jan 27

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

108

83

8

8

W 1

104

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Trieste.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Trieste and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Trieste in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 82 points and the Trieste 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Virtus Bologna

Trieste

FG%

0.55

0.54

ASS

22.40

18.10

DRB

26.30

25.90

AST-TO

1.66

1.37

TRB

35.20

33.70

FTM

14.10

10.60

BL

2.50

2.30

FTA

18.80

15.30

PF-Fewer

20.40

19.00

ST

7.80

7.00

TO-Fewer

13.50

13.20

Ftper

0.75

0.69

ORBper

0.34

0.31

ORB

8.90

7.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Reyer Venezia vs Brescia at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reyer Venezia and Brescia for Serie A, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reyer Venezia

1.45

2

Brescia

2.87

2

Reyer Venezia HC

-5.5

1

Brescia HC

+5.5

1

Point Line

160.5

157

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

84

90

15

9

L 1

86

94

Mar 28

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

69

63

15

8

W 2

76

59

Mar 21

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

87

69

14

8

W 1

89

69

Mar 6

A

Virtus Bologna

L

72

77

13

8

L 2

76

72

Feb 27

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

88

96

13

7

L 1

85

85

Feb 7

H

Red October Cantu

W

80

75

13

6

W 6

79

77

Jan 31

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

78

65

12

6

W 5

78

64

Jan 24

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

88

84

11

6

W 4

82

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brescia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

78

88

9

15

L 4

78

91

Mar 28

H

Enel Brindisi

L

68

74

9

14

L 3

71

69

Mar 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

67

91

9

13

L 2

69

95

Mar 14

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

92

99

9

12

L 1

101

92

Feb 28

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

79

9

11

W 3

90

84

Feb 10

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

98

83

8

11

W 2

94

82

Feb 7

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

78

7

11

W 1

83

78

Jan 31

H

Universo Treviso

L

91

94

6

11

L 1

85

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reyer Venezia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brescia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brescia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reyer Venezia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reyer Venezia (in the first graph) and by Brescia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Reyer Venezia will expected to score 82 points and the Brescia 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Reyer Venezia

Brescia

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

17.50

18.60

DRB

24.50

23.80

AST-TO

1.25

1.51

TRB

32.80

31.70

FTM

11.60

12.60

BL

2.60

1.80

FTA

17.20

14.80

PF-Fewer

22.30

20.80

ST

6.90

7.30

TO-Fewer

14.00

12.30

Ftper

0.68

0.85

ORBper

0.34

0.33

ORB

8.40

7.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Universo Treviso vs Dinamo Sassari at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Universo Treviso and Dinamo Sassari for Serie A, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Universo Treviso

1.93

2.85

Dinamo Sassari

1.93

1.54

Universo Treviso HC

+1.5

4.50

Dinamo Sassari HC

-1.5

-4.50

Point Line

174.5

173.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Universo Treviso are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

97

89

13

11

W 5

96

88

Mar 28

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

95

76

12

11

W 4

97

76

Mar 21

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

86

85

11

11

W 3

81

80

Mar 14

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

84

78