2021 04 09 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Huesca vs Elche at 09 April 2021
Real Madrid vs Barcelona at 10 April 2021
Eibar vs Levante at 10 April 2021
Ath Bilbao vs Alaves at 10 April 2021
Getafe vs Cadiz at 10 April 2021
Villarreal vs Osasuna at 11 April 2021
Valladolid vs Granada at 11 April 2021
Valencia vs Sociedad at 11 April 2021
Betis vs Ath Madrid at 11 April 2021
Celta vs Sevilla at 12 April 2021


Huesca vs Elche at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Huesca and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 09 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huesca

2.07

2.12

-1.1

Draw

3.30

3.86

-4.4

Elche

4.00

3.72

1.9

Over 2.5

2.40

1.95

9.6

Under 2.5

1.59

2.05

-14.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 9.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huesca in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance at home.
Huesca, at home, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Levante

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Osasuna

H

0

0

D

U

N

15 Mar

Barcelona

A

1

4

L

O

G

07 Mar

Celta

H

3

4

L

O

G

27 Feb

Eibar

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Granada

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Real Madrid

H

1

2

L

O

G


Elche in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Sevilla

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Real Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Sevilla

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Granada

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Feb

Barcelona

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Eibar

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Huesca is 0 and for the Elche is -0.319.
The home dynamic for the Huesca is -0.564 and the dynamic as a guest for the Elche is -0.459.
The offensive ability for the Huesca is 0.571 and for the Elche is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Huesca is -0.093 and for the Elche is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huesca and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huesca

22%

30%

26%

22%

Elche

31%

39%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.32 goals and Elche to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Huesca to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.48 goals and Elche to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Huesca to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

4.07

1

5.59

2-3

2.02

2

4.13

4+

3.83

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.07

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.67

2.86

2-3 goals

1.95

4.19

4.02

4+ goals

2.06

3.53

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.99

3.93

4.13

Un 1.5

2.65

3.67

2.86

Ov 2.5

1.72

6.93

3.64

Un 2.5

2.79

2.64

3.81

Ov 3.5

2.06

3.53

4.35

Un 3.5

2.14

4.00

3.54

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.82

4.58

No Goal

1.90

6.87

3.05

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

5.72

3.58

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.87

2.89


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Real Madrid vs Barcelona at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Barcelona for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Real Madrid

2.94

2.40

7.7

Draw

3.76

3.77

-0.1

Barcelona

2.29

3.15

-11.9

Over 2.5

1.60

1.98

-12.0

Under 2.5

2.39

2.02

7.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Real Madrid, Under 2.5 (7.7 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Real Madrid in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance at home.
Real Madrid, at home, had 10 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 73.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Eibar

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Celta

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Elche

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Mar

Sociedad

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Valladolid

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Valencia

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Getafe

H

2

0

W

U

N


Barcelona in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance as a guest.
Barcelona, as a guest, had 10 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 73.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Valladolid

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Sociedad

A

6

1

W

O

G

15 Mar

Huesca

H

4

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Osasuna

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Sevilla

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Elche

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Alaves

H

5

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Real Madrid is 0.689 and for the Barcelona is 1.
The home dynamic for the Real Madrid is 0.436 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barcelona is 0.633.
The offensive ability for the Real Madrid is 1 and for the Barcelona is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Real Madrid is -0.207 and for the Barcelona is 0.281.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Real Madrid and the red line for guest team, Barcelona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Real Madrid

24%

33%

24%

19%

Barcelona

30%

35%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.35 goals and Barcelona to score 1.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.38 goals and Barcelona to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.92

1

5.46

2-3

2.07

2

4.17

4+

3.83

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.92

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.60

3.54

3.00

2-3 goals

2.26

4.17

3.14

4+ goals

2.46

3.39

3.35

Ov 1.5

2.33

3.86

3.21

Un 1.5

2.60

3.54

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.04

6.56

2.79

Un 2.5

2.89

2.63

3.64

Ov 3.5

2.46

3.39

3.35

Un 3.5

2.37

3.93

3.09

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.76

3.60

No Goal

2.07

6.49

2.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

5.42

2.82

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

6.49

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Eibar vs Levante at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Eibar and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Eibar

2.22

2.22

0.0

Draw

3.44

3.70

-2.0

Levante

3.29

3.57

-2.4

Over 2.5

2.04

2.04

0.0

Under 2.5

1.81

1.96

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Eibar in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eibar in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance at home.
Eibar, at home, had one win, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Ath Bilbao

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Villarreal

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Cadiz

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Huesca

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Elche

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Osasuna

A

1

2

L

O

G


Levante in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Huesca

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Mar

Betis

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Valencia

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Sociedad

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Ath Madrid

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Ath Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Osasuna

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Eibar is -0.667 and for the Levante is -0.237.
The home dynamic for the Eibar is -0.636 and the dynamic as a guest for the Levante is -0.208.
The offensive ability for the Eibar is -0.142 and for the Levante is -0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Eibar is -1 and for the Levante is -0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eibar and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Eibar

22%

36%

21%

22%

Levante

31%

39%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eibar to score 1.38 goals and Levante to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Eibar to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eibar to score 1.42 goals and Levante to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Eibar to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.79

1

5.10

2-3

2.05

2

4.07

4+

4.00

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.79

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.88

3.07

2-3 goals

2.28

3.50

3.63

4+ goals

1.98

3.91

4.17

Ov 1.5

2.17

3.63

3.80

Un 1.5

2.40

3.88

3.07

Ov 2.5

1.79

7.67

3.23

Un 2.5

2.91

2.46

3.98

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.91

4.17

Un 3.5

2.32

3.63

3.41

Goal-Goal

2.59

2.67

4.19

No Goal

1.91

6.76

3.05

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

6.28

3.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

6.76

2.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Ath Bilbao vs Alaves at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Bilbao and Alaves for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Bilbao

1.96

1.95

0.3

Draw

3.35

3.97

-4.7

Alaves

4.48

4.24

1.3

Over 2.5

2.38

2.04

7.0

Under 2.5

1.61

1.96

-11.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ath Bilbao, Alaves, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 1.3 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance at home.
Ath Bilbao, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Apr

Sociedad

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Celta

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Granada

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

Cadiz

A

4

0

W

O

N


Alaves in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance as a guest.
Alaves, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Celta

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Mar

Betis

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Osasuna

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Feb

Sociedad

A

0

4

L

O

N

13 Feb

Barcelona

A

1

5

L

O

G

05 Feb

Valladolid

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Ath Bilbao is -0.015 and for the Alaves is -0.83.
The home dynamic for the Ath Bilbao is 0.082 and the dynamic as a guest for the Alaves is -0.401.
The offensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is 0.597 and for the Alaves is -0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is -0.586 and for the Alaves is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Bilbao and the red line for guest team, Alaves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Bilbao

20%

32%

24%

24%

Alaves

39%

34%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.39 goals and Alaves to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.51 goals and Alaves to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.69

1

5.21

2-3

2.05

2

4.20

4+

4.12

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.69

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-