# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Huesca vs Elche at 09 April 2021**** Real Madrid vs Barcelona at 10 April 2021**** Eibar vs Levante at 10 April 2021**** Ath Bilbao vs Alaves at 10 April 2021**** Getafe vs Cadiz at 10 April 2021**** Villarreal vs Osasuna at 11 April 2021**** Valladolid vs Granada at 11 April 2021**** Valencia vs Sociedad at 11 April 2021**** Betis vs Ath Madrid at 11 April 2021**** Celta vs Sevilla at 12 April 2021**

###
Huesca vs Elche at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Huesca** and **Elche** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **09 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Huesca |
2.07 |
2.12 |
-1.1 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.86 |
-4.4 |

Elche |
4.00 |
3.72 |
1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.40 |
1.95 |
9.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
2.05 |
-14.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Elche, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 9.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Huesca** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huesca** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance** at home**.

Huesca,** at home**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Levante |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Osasuna |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Mar |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Celta |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Eibar |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Granada |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Elche** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Elche** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance** as a guest**.

Elche,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Betis |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Real Madrid |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Sevilla |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Granada |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Barcelona |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Huesca** is **0** and for the **Elche** is **-0.319.**

The home dynamic for the **Huesca** is **-0.564** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Elche** is **-0.459.**

The offensive ability for the **Huesca** is **0.571** and for the **Elche** is **0.591.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Huesca** is **-0.093** and for the **Elche** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Huesca** and the red line for guest team, **Elche. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Huesca |
22% |
30% |
26% |
22% |

Elche |
31% |
39% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Huesca** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Elche** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and the home team **Huesca ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Huesca** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Elche** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the home team **Huesca ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.05 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.67 |
2.86 |

2-3 goals |
1.95 |
4.19 |
4.02 |

4+ goals |
2.06 |
3.53 |
4.35 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.99 |
3.93 |
4.13 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.67 |
2.86 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
6.93 |
3.64 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.64 |
3.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.53 |
4.35 |

Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
4.00 |
3.54 |

Goal-Goal |
2.34 |
2.82 |
4.58 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
6.87 |
3.05 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
5.72 |
3.58 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.87 |
2.89 |

####
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###
Real Madrid vs Barcelona at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Real Madrid** and **Barcelona** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Real Madrid |
2.94 |
2.40 |
7.7 |

Draw |
3.76 |
3.77 |
-0.1 |

Barcelona |
2.29 |
3.15 |
-11.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.98 |
-12.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.02 |
7.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Real Madrid, Under 2.5 (7.7 %, 7.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Real Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Real Madrid** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance** at home**.

Real Madrid,** at home**, had 10 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 73.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Celta |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Elche |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Mar |
Sociedad |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Getafe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Barcelona** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barcelona** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance** as a guest**.

Barcelona,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 73.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Sociedad |
A |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Mar |
Huesca |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Osasuna |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Sevilla |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Elche |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Feb |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Alaves |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Real Madrid** is **0.689** and for the **Barcelona** is **1.**

The home dynamic for the **Real Madrid** is **0.436** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Barcelona** is **0.633.**

The offensive ability for the **Real Madrid** is **1** and for the **Barcelona** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Real Madrid** is **-0.207** and for the **Barcelona** is **0.281.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Real Madrid** and the red line for guest team, **Barcelona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Real Madrid |
24% |
33% |
24% |
19% |

Barcelona |
30% |
35% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Real Madrid** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Barcelona** to score **1.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.98** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.28** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Real Madrid** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Barcelona** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.60 |
3.54 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.26 |
4.17 |
3.14 |

4+ goals |
2.46 |
3.39 |
3.35 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.86 |
3.21 |

Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.54 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.56 |
2.79 |

Un 2.5 |
2.89 |
2.63 |
3.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.39 |
3.35 |

Un 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.93 |
3.09 |

Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.76 |
3.60 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
6.49 |
2.76 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.42 |
2.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.49 |
2.79 |

####
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###
Eibar vs Levante at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Eibar** and **Levante** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Eibar |
2.22 |
2.22 |
0.0 |

Draw |
3.44 |
3.70 |
-2.0 |

Levante |
3.29 |
3.57 |
-2.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.04 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.96 |
-4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Eibar** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Eibar** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance** at home**.

Eibar,** at home**, had one win, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Mar |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Cadiz |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Elche |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Feb |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Levante** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Levante** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance** as a guest**.

Levante,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Huesca |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Mar |
Betis |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Valencia |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Sociedad |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Osasuna |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Eibar** is **-0.667** and for the **Levante** is **-0.237.**

The home dynamic for the **Eibar** is **-0.636** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Levante** is **-0.208.**

The offensive ability for the **Eibar** is **-0.142** and for the **Levante** is **-0.278.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Eibar** is **-1** and for the **Levante** is **-0.385.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Eibar** and the red line for guest team, **Levante. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Eibar |
22% |
36% |
21% |
22% |

Levante |
31% |
39% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Eibar** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Levante** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Eibar ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Eibar** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Levante** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Eibar ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
4.00 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.40 |
3.88 |
3.07 |

2-3 goals |
2.28 |
3.50 |
3.63 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
3.91 |
4.17 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.63 |
3.80 |

Un 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.88 |
3.07 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
7.67 |
3.23 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.46 |
3.98 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.91 |
4.17 |

Un 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.63 |
3.41 |

Goal-Goal |
2.59 |
2.67 |
4.19 |

No Goal |
1.91 |
6.76 |
3.05 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.28 |
3.12 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.76 |
2.90 |

####
Go to Top

###
Ath Bilbao vs Alaves at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ath Bilbao** and **Alaves** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ath Bilbao |
1.96 |
1.95 |
0.3 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.97 |
-4.7 |

Alaves |
4.48 |
4.24 |
1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.04 |
7.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.96 |
-11.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ath Bilbao, Alaves, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 1.3 %, 7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ath Bilbao** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Bilbao** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance** at home**.

Ath Bilbao,** at home**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Apr |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Mar |
Celta |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Mar |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Granada |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Feb |
Levante |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Feb |
Cadiz |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Alaves** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Alaves** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance** as a guest**.

Alaves,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Celta |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Mar |
Betis |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Osasuna |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Sociedad |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Ath Bilbao** is **-0.015** and for the **Alaves** is **-0.83.**

The home dynamic for the **Ath Bilbao** is **0.082** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Alaves** is **-0.401.**

The offensive ability for the **Ath Bilbao** is **0.597** and for the **Alaves** is **-0.104.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Ath Bilbao** is **-0.586** and for the **Alaves** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ath Bilbao** and the red line for guest team, **Alaves. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ath Bilbao |
20% |
32% |
24% |
24% |

Alaves |
39% |
34% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Alaves** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and the home team **Ath Bilbao ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Alaves** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Ath Bilbao ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.69 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
4.12 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.69 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.12 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |