# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Northampton vs Bristol Rvs at 10 April 2021**** Swindon vs Peterboro at 10 April 2021**** Sunderland vs Charlton at 10 April 2021**** Portsmouth vs Burton at 10 April 2021**** Plymouth vs Hull at 10 April 2021**** Doncaster vs Wigan at 10 April 2021**** Ipswich vs Milton Keynes Dons at 10 April 2021**** Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale at 10 April 2021**** Crewe vs Oxford at 10 April 2021**** Accrington vs AFC Wimbledon at 10 April 2021**** Gillingham vs Shrewsbury at 10 April 2021**** Lincoln vs Blackpool at 10 April 2021**

###
Northampton vs Bristol Rvs at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Northampton** and **Bristol Rvs** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Northampton |
2.63 |
2.24 |
6.6 |

Draw |
3.10 |
3.89 |
-6.6 |

Bristol Rvs |
2.79 |
3.38 |
-6.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
1.93 |
10.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
2.07 |
-15.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Northampton, Over 2.5 (6.6 %, 10.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** at home**.

Northampton,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 16 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Hull |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Charlton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Bristol Rvs** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol Rvs** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance** as a guest**.

Bristol Rvs,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 23.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Swindon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Northampton** is **-0.17** and for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-0.607.**

The home dynamic for the **Northampton** is **-0.318** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-0.14.**

The offensive ability for the **Northampton** is **-0.519** and for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-0.13.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Northampton** is **0.145** and for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Northampton** and the red line for guest team, **Bristol Rvs. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Northampton |
24% |
28% |
28% |
20% |

Bristol Rvs |
31% |
36% |
19% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.12** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.73 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.73 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.31 |
2.85 |

2-3 goals |
1.92 |
4.85 |
3.65 |

4+ goals |
2.46 |
3.27 |
3.48 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
4.14 |
3.59 |

Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.31 |
2.85 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.33 |
3.16 |

Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
2.75 |
3.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.27 |
3.48 |

Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
4.19 |
3.33 |

Goal-Goal |
2.48 |
2.88 |
4.01 |

No Goal |
2.03 |
6.35 |
2.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.18 |
3.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.35 |
2.87 |

####
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###
Swindon vs Peterboro at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swindon** and **Peterboro** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swindon |
4.94 |
2.89 |
14.4 |

Draw |
3.77 |
3.79 |
-0.1 |

Peterboro |
1.68 |
2.56 |
-20.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.98 |
-3.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.02 |
-1.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swindon (14.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** at home**.

Swindon,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** as a guest**.

Peterboro,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Sunderland |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
7 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Swindon** is **-0.333** and for the **Peterboro** is **0.333.**

The home dynamic for the **Swindon** is **-0.327** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Peterboro** is **-0.024.**

The offensive ability for the **Swindon** is **0.571** and for the **Peterboro** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Swindon** is **-0.207** and for the **Peterboro** is **-0.015.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swindon** and the red line for guest team, **Peterboro. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swindon |
31% |
30% |
23% |
16% |

Peterboro |
22% |
38% |
26% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **0.82 ** goals and **Peterboro** to score **1.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the guest team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.96** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Peterboro** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.73 |
3.68 |
2.17 |

2-3 goals |
2.75 |
4.38 |
2.45 |

4+ goals |
2.55 |
3.13 |
3.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.85 |
2.73 |

Un 1.5 |
3.73 |
3.68 |
2.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
6.10 |
2.58 |

Un 2.5 |
4.12 |
2.74 |
2.55 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.55 |
3.13 |
3.47 |

Un 3.5 |
3.02 |
4.11 |
2.35 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.76 |
3.54 |

No Goal |
2.96 |
6.79 |
1.94 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
5.13 |
2.80 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.18 |
6.79 |
1.97 |

####
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###
Sunderland vs Charlton at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sunderland** and **Charlton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sunderland |
1.90 |
2.29 |
-9.0 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.73 |
-2.5 |

Charlton |
4.09 |
3.38 |
5.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.07 |
2.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.94 |
-8.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Charlton, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** at home**.

Sunderland,** at home**, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 57.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Oxford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Swindon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Charlton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Charlton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance** as a guest**.

Charlton,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Mar |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Sunderland** is **0.644** and for the **Charlton** is **0.519.**

The home dynamic for the **Sunderland** is **-0.255** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Charlton** is **0.169.**

The offensive ability for the **Sunderland** is **1** and for the **Charlton** is **0.678.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sunderland** is **0.084** and for the **Charlton** is **-0.333.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sunderland** and the red line for guest team, **Charlton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sunderland |
23% |
33% |
26% |
18% |

Charlton |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.15 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.15 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.51 |
3.55 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
2.16 |
4.16 |
3.37 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.26 |
3.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.81 |
3.47 |

Un 1.5 |
2.51 |
3.55 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.57 |
3.00 |

Un 2.5 |
2.76 |
2.66 |
3.82 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.26 |
3.71 |

Un 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.92 |
3.28 |

Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.71 |
3.85 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.46 |
2.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.39 |
2.94 |

####
Go to Top

###
Portsmouth vs Burton at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Portsmouth** and **Burton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Portsmouth |
1.82 |
2.34 |
-12.2 |

Draw |
3.57 |
3.72 |
-1.1 |

Burton |
4.30 |
3.30 |
7.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.06 |
-1.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.94 |
-3.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burton (7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** at home**.

Portsmouth,** at home**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 48.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Burton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance** as a guest**.

Burton,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Crewe |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Portsmouth** is **0.43** and for the **Burton** is **0.**

The home dynamic for the **Portsmouth** is **0.082** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Burton** is **-0.401.**

The offensive ability for the **Portsmouth** is **0.339** and for the **Burton** is **0.565.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.533** and for the **Burton** is **-0.356.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Portsmouth** and the red line for guest team, **Burton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Portsmouth |
24% |
33% |
25% |
18% |

Burton |
31% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Burton** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Portsmouth ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Burton** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.17 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |