2021 04 09 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Northampton vs Bristol Rvs at 10 April 2021
Swindon vs Peterboro at 10 April 2021
Sunderland vs Charlton at 10 April 2021
Portsmouth vs Burton at 10 April 2021
Plymouth vs Hull at 10 April 2021
Doncaster vs Wigan at 10 April 2021
Ipswich vs Milton Keynes Dons at 10 April 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale at 10 April 2021
Crewe vs Oxford at 10 April 2021
Accrington vs AFC Wimbledon at 10 April 2021
Gillingham vs Shrewsbury at 10 April 2021
Lincoln vs Blackpool at 10 April 2021


Northampton vs Bristol Rvs at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Bristol Rvs for League One (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Northampton

2.63

2.24

6.6

Draw

3.10

3.89

-6.6

Bristol Rvs

2.79

3.38

-6.3

Over 2.5

2.43

1.93

10.7

Under 2.5

1.56

2.07

-15.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton, Over 2.5 (6.6 %, 10.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Northampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 16 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Hull

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Oxford

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Crewe

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Doncaster

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Charlton

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Portsmouth

H

4

1

W

O

G


Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance as a guest.
Bristol Rvs, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 23.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Ipswich

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Sunderland

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Swindon

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Plymouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Charlton

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Accrington

H

4

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Northampton is -0.17 and for the Bristol Rvs is -0.607.
The home dynamic for the Northampton is -0.318 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bristol Rvs is -0.14.
The offensive ability for the Northampton is -0.519 and for the Bristol Rvs is -0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Northampton is 0.145 and for the Bristol Rvs is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Bristol Rvs.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Northampton

24%

28%

28%

20%

Bristol Rvs

31%

36%

19%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.08 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.44 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

4.03

1

5.78

2-3

2.06

2

4.27

4+

3.73

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.03

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.73

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.31

2.85

2-3 goals

1.92

4.85

3.65

4+ goals

2.46

3.27

3.48

Ov 1.5

2.09

4.14

3.59

Un 1.5

2.88

3.31

2.85

Ov 2.5

1.90

6.33

3.16

Un 2.5

2.77

2.75

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.46

3.27

3.48

Un 3.5

2.17

4.19

3.33

Goal-Goal

2.48

2.88

4.01

No Goal

2.03

6.35

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.18

3.24

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

6.35

2.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swindon vs Peterboro at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Peterboro for League One (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

4.94

2.89

14.4

Draw

3.77

3.79

-0.1

Peterboro

1.68

2.56

-20.5

Over 2.5

1.86

1.98

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.96

2.02

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon (14.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Burton

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Blackpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Fleetwood Town

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Gillingham

H

1

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Oxford

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Accrington

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Sunderland

A

0

1

L

U

N


Peterboro in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance as a guest.
Peterboro, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Sunderland

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Fleetwood Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Accrington

H

7

0

W

O

N

23 Mar

Blackpool

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Portsmouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Hull

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Burton

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Swindon is -0.333 and for the Peterboro is 0.333.
The home dynamic for the Swindon is -0.327 and the dynamic as a guest for the Peterboro is -0.024.
The offensive ability for the Swindon is 0.571 and for the Peterboro is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swindon is -0.207 and for the Peterboro is -0.015.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Peterboro.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

31%

30%

23%

16%

Peterboro

22%

38%

26%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 0.82 goals and Peterboro to score 1.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the guest team Peterboro to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.25 goals and Peterboro to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.00

1

5.49

2-3

2.04

2

4.10

4+

3.85

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.00

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.73

3.68

2.17

2-3 goals

2.75

4.38

2.45

4+ goals

2.55

3.13

3.47

Ov 1.5

2.68

3.85

2.73

Un 1.5

3.73

3.68

2.17

Ov 2.5

2.23

6.10

2.58

Un 2.5

4.12

2.74

2.55

Ov 3.5

2.55

3.13

3.47

Un 3.5

3.02

4.11

2.35

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.76

3.54

No Goal

2.96

6.79

1.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

5.13

2.80

NG+Un 2.5

3.18

6.79

1.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sunderland vs Charlton at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Charlton for League One (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.90

2.29

-9.0

Draw

3.41

3.73

-2.5

Charlton

4.09

3.38

5.1

Over 2.5

2.19

2.07

2.6

Under 2.5

1.67

1.94

-8.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Charlton, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 57.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Peterboro

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Oxford

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Lincoln

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Accrington

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Portsmouth

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Rochdale

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Swindon

H

1

0

W

U

N


Charlton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance as a guest.
Charlton, as a guest, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Bristol Rvs

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Shrewsbury

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Oxford

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Wigan

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Blackpool

H

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Sunderland is 0.644 and for the Charlton is 0.519.
The home dynamic for the Sunderland is -0.255 and the dynamic as a guest for the Charlton is 0.169.
The offensive ability for the Sunderland is 1 and for the Charlton is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sunderland is 0.084 and for the Charlton is -0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Charlton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

23%

33%

26%

18%

Charlton

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.44 goals and Charlton to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.37 goals and Charlton to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.76

1

5.24

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

4.15

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.76

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.51

3.55

3.13

2-3 goals

2.16

4.16

3.37

4+ goals

2.36

3.26

3.71

Ov 1.5

2.22

3.81

3.47

Un 1.5

2.51

3.55

3.13

Ov 2.5

1.94

6.57

3.00

Un 2.5

2.76

2.66

3.82

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.26

3.71

Un 3.5

2.27

3.92

3.28

Goal-Goal

2.70

2.71

3.85

No Goal

1.97

6.39

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

5.46

2.97

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

6.39

2.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Portsmouth vs Burton at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Burton for League One (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portsmouth

1.82

2.34

-12.2

Draw

3.57

3.72

-1.1

Burton

4.30

3.30

7.0

Over 2.5

1.99

2.06

-1.7

Under 2.5

1.82

1.94

-3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burton (7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portsmouth in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance at home.
Portsmouth, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 48.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Wigan

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Rochdale

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Shrewsbury

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Peterboro

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Northampton

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 Mar

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G


Burton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance as a guest.
Burton, as a guest, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Mar

Shrewsbury

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Mar

Blackpool

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Crewe

A

3

0

W

O

N

09 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Peterboro

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Portsmouth is 0.43 and for the Burton is 0.
The home dynamic for the Portsmouth is 0.082 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burton is -0.401.
The offensive ability for the Portsmouth is 0.339 and for the Burton is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Portsmouth is -0.533 and for the Burton is -0.356.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portsmouth and the red line for guest team, Burton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portsmouth

24%

33%

25%

18%

Burton

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.59 goals and Burton to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.36 goals and Burton to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.77

1

5.26

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

4.17

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.77

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at