# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Oldham vs Colchester at 09 April 2021**** Mansfield vs Newport County at 09 April 2021**** Salford vs Stevenage at 10 April 2021**** Walsall vs Forest Green at 10 April 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Tranmere at 10 April 2021**** Port Vale vs Morecambe at 10 April 2021**** Cheltenham vs Leyton Orient at 10 April 2021**** Cambridge vs Exeter at 10 April 2021**** Bradford vs Grimsby at 10 April 2021**** Bolton vs Harrogate at 10 April 2021**** Barrow vs Carlisle at 10 April 2021**** Southend vs Crawley Town at 10 April 2021**

###
Oldham vs Colchester at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oldham** and **Colchester** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **09 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oldham |
2.46 |
2.38 |
1.4 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.64 |
-2.6 |

Colchester |
2.82 |
3.30 |
-5.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.13 |
-2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.89 |
-2.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Oldham (1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** at home**.

Oldham,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 28.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Crawley Town |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** as a guest**.

Colchester,** as a guest**, had one win, 10 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 21.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Tranmere |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Oldham** is **0** and for the **Colchester** is **-0.319.**

The home dynamic for the **Oldham** is **-0.536** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Colchester** is **-0.266.**

The offensive ability for the **Oldham** is **0.227** and for the **Colchester** is **-0.104.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Oldham** is **-0.648** and for the **Colchester** is **-0.356.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oldham** and the red line for guest team, **Colchester. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oldham |
23% |
38% |
21% |
18% |

Colchester |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oldham** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oldham** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.28 |
3.83 |
3.33 |

2-3 goals |
2.48 |
3.53 |
3.19 |

4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.62 |
3.52 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.56 |
3.29 |

Un 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.83 |
3.33 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
7.34 |
2.73 |

Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.51 |
4.04 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.62 |
3.52 |

Un 3.5 |
2.40 |
3.64 |
3.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.60 |
3.61 |

No Goal |
1.94 |
6.56 |
3.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.06 |
2.66 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.56 |
2.98 |

####
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###
Mansfield vs Newport County at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mansfield** and **Newport County** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **09 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mansfield |
2.41 |
2.67 |
-4.0 |

Draw |
2.98 |
3.60 |
-5.8 |

Newport County |
3.22 |
2.88 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.25 |
5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
1.80 |
-11.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newport County, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 5.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** at home**.

Mansfield,** at home**, had 4 wins, 9 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 35.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Grimsby |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Cheltenham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** as a guest**.

Newport County,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Mansfield** is **-0.185** and for the **Newport County** is **-0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Mansfield** is **-0.291** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Newport County** is **0.13.**

The offensive ability for the **Mansfield** is **-0.262** and for the **Newport County** is **0.591.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Mansfield** is **-0.145** and for the **Newport County** is **-0.607.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mansfield** and the red line for guest team, **Newport County. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mansfield |
29% |
35% |
23% |
13% |

Newport County |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Newport County** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.04** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Newport County** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.34 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.82 |
3.36 |
2.88 |

2-3 goals |
2.55 |
3.94 |
2.83 |

4+ goals |
2.79 |
3.21 |
3.03 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.69 |
2.88 |

Un 1.5 |
2.82 |
3.36 |
2.88 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.73 |
2.47 |

Un 2.5 |
3.16 |
2.61 |
3.33 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.21 |
3.03 |

Un 3.5 |
2.64 |
3.70 |
2.84 |

Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.59 |
3.40 |

No Goal |
2.35 |
5.70 |
2.51 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.59 |
2.54 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
5.70 |
2.59 |

####
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###
Salford vs Stevenage at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salford** and **Stevenage** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salford |
2.13 |
2.65 |
-9.2 |

Draw |
3.10 |
3.75 |
-5.6 |

Stevenage |
3.69 |
2.82 |
8.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.15 |
7.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.87 |
-14.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stevenage, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 7.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** at home**.

Salford,** at home**, had 8 wins, 11 draws, no defeats and gathered 35 points, 61.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** as a guest**.

Stevenage,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 10 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Carlisle |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Salford** is **-0.274** and for the **Stevenage** is **0.519.**

The home dynamic for the **Salford** is **0.291** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Stevenage** is **-0.324.**

The offensive ability for the **Salford** is **-0.433** and for the **Stevenage** is **0.33.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Salford** is **-0.181** and for the **Stevenage** is **-0.059.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salford** and the red line for guest team, **Stevenage. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salford |
32% |
25% |
31% |
12% |

Stevenage |
29% |
36% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.02** goals in the game and the home team **Salford ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.86 |
2.97 |
2.47 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
5.60 |
2.93 |

4+ goals |
3.29 |
2.67 |
3.11 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.35 |
4.17 |
2.99 |

Un 1.5 |
3.86 |
2.97 |
2.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.54 |
2.77 |

Un 2.5 |
3.24 |
2.92 |
2.87 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.29 |
2.67 |
3.11 |

Un 3.5 |
2.50 |
4.23 |
2.75 |

Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.77 |
3.76 |

No Goal |
2.61 |
5.49 |
2.30 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
4.63 |
3.06 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
5.49 |
2.40 |

####
Go to Top

###
Walsall vs Forest Green at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Walsall** and **Forest Green** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Walsall |
3.00 |
2.76 |
2.9 |

Draw |
3.02 |
3.62 |
-5.5 |

Forest Green |
2.49 |
2.76 |
-3.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.20 |
2.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.83 |
-9.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Walsall, Over 2.5 (2.9 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** at home**.

Walsall,** at home**, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 36.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Forest Green** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Forest Green** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance** as a guest**.

Forest Green,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Salford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Walsall** is **-0.148** and for the **Forest Green** is **-0.57.**

The home dynamic for the **Walsall** is **0.009** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Forest Green** is **0.295.**

The offensive ability for the **Walsall** is **-0.262** and for the **Forest Green** is **-0.591.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Walsall** is **0.295** and for the **Forest Green** is **-0.681.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Walsall** and the red line for guest team, **Forest Green. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Walsall |
30% |
33% |
24% |
13% |

Forest Green |
29% |
35% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **1.01 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.42 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |