2021 04 09 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Oldham vs Colchester at 09 April 2021
Mansfield vs Newport County at 09 April 2021
Salford vs Stevenage at 10 April 2021
Walsall vs Forest Green at 10 April 2021
Scunthorpe vs Tranmere at 10 April 2021
Port Vale vs Morecambe at 10 April 2021
Cheltenham vs Leyton Orient at 10 April 2021
Cambridge vs Exeter at 10 April 2021
Bradford vs Grimsby at 10 April 2021
Bolton vs Harrogate at 10 April 2021
Barrow vs Carlisle at 10 April 2021
Southend vs Crawley Town at 10 April 2021


Oldham vs Colchester at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oldham and Colchester for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oldham

2.46

2.38

1.4

Draw

3.32

3.64

-2.6

Colchester

2.82

3.30

-5.2

Over 2.5

2.01

2.13

-2.8

Under 2.5

1.81

1.89

-2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oldham (1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oldham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance at home.
Oldham, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 28.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Crawley Town

A

4

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Stevenage

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Leyton Orient

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Exeter

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Bradford

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Mar

Scunthorpe

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Cambridge

H

2

4

L

O

G

09 Mar

Port Vale

A

0

0

D

U

N


Colchester in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance as a guest.
Colchester, as a guest, had one win, 10 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 21.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Barrow

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Bolton

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Tranmere

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Port Vale

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Salford

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Harrogate

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Oldham is 0 and for the Colchester is -0.319.
The home dynamic for the Oldham is -0.536 and the dynamic as a guest for the Colchester is -0.266.
The offensive ability for the Oldham is 0.227 and for the Colchester is -0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oldham is -0.648 and for the Colchester is -0.356.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oldham and the red line for guest team, Colchester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oldham

23%

38%

21%

18%

Colchester

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.28 goals and Colchester to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.34 goals and Colchester to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.62

1

4.90

2-3

2.04

2

3.95

4+

4.31

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.62

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.83

3.33

2-3 goals

2.48

3.53

3.19

4+ goals

2.27

3.62

3.52

Ov 1.5

2.41

3.56

3.29

Un 1.5

2.28

3.83

3.33

Ov 2.5

2.01

7.34

2.73

Un 2.5

2.83

2.51

4.04

Ov 3.5

2.27

3.62

3.52

Un 3.5

2.40

3.64

3.24

Goal-Goal

2.96

2.60

3.61

No Goal

1.94

6.56

3.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

6.06

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.56

2.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Mansfield vs Newport County at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mansfield and Newport County for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mansfield

2.41

2.67

-4.0

Draw

2.98

3.60

-5.8

Newport County

3.22

2.88

3.7

Over 2.5

2.57

2.25

5.5

Under 2.5

1.50

1.80

-11.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newport County, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mansfield in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance at home.
Mansfield, at home, had 4 wins, 9 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 35.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Tranmere

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Forest Green

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Grimsby

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Cheltenham

H

3

1

W

O

G


Newport County in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance as a guest.
Newport County, as a guest, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Bolton

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Barrow

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Port Vale

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Morecambe

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Bradford

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Colchester

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Tranmere

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Mansfield is -0.185 and for the Newport County is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Mansfield is -0.291 and the dynamic as a guest for the Newport County is 0.13.
The offensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.262 and for the Newport County is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.145 and for the Newport County is -0.607.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mansfield and the red line for guest team, Newport County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mansfield

29%

35%

23%

13%

Newport County

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.12 goals and Newport County to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.21 goals and Newport County to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.34

1

4.76

2-3

2.04

2

3.89

4+

4.72

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.34

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.82

3.36

2.88

2-3 goals

2.55

3.94

2.83

4+ goals

2.79

3.21

3.03

Ov 1.5

2.62

3.69

2.88

Un 1.5

2.82

3.36

2.88

Ov 2.5

2.24

6.73

2.47

Un 2.5

3.16

2.61

3.33

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.21

3.03

Un 3.5

2.64

3.70

2.84

Goal-Goal

3.12

2.59

3.40

No Goal

2.35

5.70

2.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.34

5.59

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

2.45

5.70

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Salford vs Stevenage at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Stevenage for League Two (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salford

2.13

2.65

-9.2

Draw

3.10

3.75

-5.6

Stevenage

3.69

2.82

8.4

Over 2.5

2.59

2.15

7.9

Under 2.5

1.48

1.87

-14.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 7.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salford in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 8 wins, 11 draws, no defeats and gathered 35 points, 61.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Forest Green

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Grimsby

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Mar

Exeter

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Cheltenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Scunthorpe

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

0

W

U

N


Stevenage in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance as a guest.
Stevenage, as a guest, had 4 wins, 10 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Bradford

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Oldham

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Barrow

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Carlisle

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Leyton Orient

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Harrogate

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Forest Green

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Salford is -0.274 and for the Stevenage is 0.519.
The home dynamic for the Salford is 0.291 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stevenage is -0.324.
The offensive ability for the Salford is -0.433 and for the Stevenage is 0.33.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Salford is -0.181 and for the Stevenage is -0.059.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Stevenage.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salford

32%

25%

31%

12%

Stevenage

29%

36%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.2 goals and Stevenage to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.23 goals and Stevenage to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.55

1

5.35

2-3

2.03

2

3.97

4+

4.46

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.55

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.86

2.97

2.47

2-3 goals

2.08

5.60

2.93

4+ goals

3.29

2.67

3.11

Ov 1.5

2.35

4.17

2.99

Un 1.5

3.86

2.97

2.47

Ov 2.5

2.18

5.54

2.77

Un 2.5

3.24

2.92

2.87

Ov 3.5

3.29

2.67

3.11

Un 3.5

2.50

4.23

2.75

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.77

3.76

No Goal

2.61

5.49

2.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

4.63

3.06

NG+Un 2.5

2.70

5.49

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Walsall vs Forest Green at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Walsall and Forest Green for League Two (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Walsall

3.00

2.76

2.9

Draw

3.02

3.62

-5.5

Forest Green

2.49

2.76

-3.9

Over 2.5

2.35

2.20

2.9

Under 2.5

1.57

1.83

-9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Walsall, Over 2.5 (2.9 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Walsall in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance at home.
Walsall, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 36.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Leyton Orient

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Harrogate

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Bolton

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Mar

Crawley Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Mar

Barrow

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Cambridge

A

0

1

L

U

N


Forest Green in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance as a guest.
Forest Green, as a guest, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Salford

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Bradford

A

1

4

L

O

G

27 Mar

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Mansfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Cambridge

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Harrogate

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Morecambe

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Mar

Grimsby

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Walsall is -0.148 and for the Forest Green is -0.57.
The home dynamic for the Walsall is 0.009 and the dynamic as a guest for the Forest Green is 0.295.
The offensive ability for the Walsall is -0.262 and for the Forest Green is -0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Walsall is 0.295 and for the Forest Green is -0.681.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Walsall and the red line for guest team, Forest Green.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Walsall

30%

33%

24%

13%

Forest Green

29%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.01 goals and Forest Green to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.19 goals and Forest Green to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.42

1

4.90

2-3

2.04

2

3.92

4+

4.57

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.42

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5